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Old 06-21-2012, 10:48 AM   #1
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The cycle of nations

In the theme of governments being one of the biggest SHTF dangers:
http://www.sovereignman.com/expat/whats-next/

“There were so many opportunities to leave beforehand,” she explained, ”but they just never thought things would ever get that bad here. Everyone saw what happened in other countries, but my family never expected that it would happen to them.”


"1. A nation rises to greatness and becomes wealthy based on sound principles and the hard work of initial generations.

2. Eventually, being wealthy becomes the natural expectation… an entitlement, rather than a goal to work hard for and achieve.

3. A nation begins living beyond its means to maintain the high life without the hard work, leveraging its credibility to trade tomorrow’s production for today’s consumption.

4. Living beyond its means eventually becomes unsustainable. Government begins to slowly, then staggeringly, devalue its currency.

5. The market (i.e. people) finally wake up to the fraud being perpetrated.

6. Financial repression usually follows– high taxes which steal from the productive, negative real interest rates which steal from the savers, etc.

7. Capital flight comes next. People take their money and run.

8. Governments implement capital controls, border controls, price and wage controls, and anything else they can do to maintain the status quo. People find out who the police are really there to protect and serve.

9. Capitulation (default) is the endgame; the system resets itself and begins anew."

Where in the cycle is your country?
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Old 06-21-2012, 04:13 PM   #2
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The U.S. is at or near #8.

Border controls started to be implemented over a decade ago. One of the signs of a free country is that you can leave ANYTIME you want WITHOUT government permission, no passport, no visa, no anything. A few years ago you could just drive out of the country and drive back in. Today you must have government permission (a passport) to leave or to enter even if you are a U.S. citizen.

Capital controls have been implement to a limited degree already, too. Just try taking cash out of the country and see what happens. Or try emigrating and taking your wealth with you.

Even though that indicates #8, some of the previous have not been fully implemented yet, though I see them happening within the next 3 years.

I expect the reset to happen in the spring of 2015. Resets usually mean revolution from within OR invading and conquering armies from without. My guess is the latter. I just can't see the me-first generation doing anything except throwing monkey wrenches and gumming up the process of resetting.
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Old 06-21-2012, 04:21 PM   #3
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Anywhere between 5 and 8 (in the US) depending on what is being discussed. I don't think that there are defined boundries on these and each step takes its course in society at its own pace. However, it does simplify the course pretty well.
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