2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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pmbug said:
So ... any bets on how the market reacts this week? Are people becoming numb to war news after Russia-Ukraine and the markets sleep on the Israel-Iran conflict? Or do the markets start pricing in a risk of WW3 or nuclear explosions?
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PM's and oil going up!
 
I've only made 1 trade this year until last Thursday. Was watching the nasdaq to see if it could break above resistance. Kept getting knocked down so before end of the day I bought some puts. 520 2 weeks out. the 27th I think. Went over to a friends to smoke and chill in the pool. Got home around midnight to see that Israel had attacked Iran and futures were dumping pretty good. On Friday by close of business I think many were thinking this would be another quick by Israel and be over by Monday which is why I dont think the VIX spiked all that much and markets didn't tank enough IMO. So I am holding over this weekend and see what happens on Monday. The futures tonight will tell the story.

On a personal level I will say I don't invest in defense companies. Not interested in profiting off of killing others. In this case I got in before I knew about a war breaking out so I'm ok with this position.
 
I don't think the markets will react too crazy unless something happens with the supply chain. Keep an eye on the Straight of Hormuz and container shipping.
 

Stock markets are ignoring the war as they wait for the Fed​

  • Israel’s air war on Iran entered its fourth day and the price of oil went up again, but the markets appear to be shrugging off the conflict. S&P 500 futures inched up this morning following gains in Europe and Asia.
Investors appear to be positioning for a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event in front of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave rates where they are, so don’t be surprised if you see a moderate amount of profit-taking if that decision is confirmed.

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...wait-for-the-fed/ar-AA1GO1hE?ocid=socialshare
 
I see lots of this going around and I just gotta say that I think its COMPLETE Bullshit. Everyone keeps touting that retail is buying the hell out of the stock market.

Retail Goes On Historic Short Squeeze Spree, Sparking Hedge Fund Bloodbath | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com

I don't have a premium account but just this line is telling " pennystock volumes are about to surpass 50% of all market volume!"

This is NOT being caused by a bunch of retail investors going out to buy stock. That's complete horseshit coverup. Retail trades don't even go to the lit markets hardly any more. So if they are using volume you can bet these "stats" are just useless.

What's really happening? Shennanigans, usually to do with ETF's games and settlement juggling. Its the market makers desperately trying to keep their liquidity high enough to not get liquidated. Don't trust anything, there are serious liquidity problems out there.
 

Martin Armstrong's Latest Calls on Iran, Ukraine and $50+ Silver​

The World According to Martin Armstrong: Conversations with the Master Forecaster — https://amzn.to/3F615nt!

In this explosive new episode of the Financial Survival Network, Martin Armstrong returns to break down exactly why the markets, war cycles, and global crises all follow the same predictable patterns — and why almost nobody in power understands it.Martin reveals how his computer model has consistently nailed market crashes, bull runs, and geopolitical flashpoints — from calling the Dow’s surge to 45,000 to forecasting the next phase of the Ukraine war and the brewing storm in Iran. He explains why politicians and mainstream analysts always get it wrong: because they ignore that markets are like a pendulum — swinging to extremes before inevitably snapping back.

You’ll hear Martin’s unfiltered take on:
Why banning short selling guarantees deeper crashes
Why gold is heading for $5,000 and silver to $50 — but not for the reasons you think
How the neocons block peace to keep wars going
Why the computer shows World War III contagion is real — and why Europe may erupt in civil unrest
What you must understand NOW to protect your wealth before the next crisis hits
This is Martin Armstrong at his most candid — pulling no punches about who’s behind endless wars, broken markets, and the coming storm that could rewrite the global map.
33
 
Oil prices are one false flag fiasco away from blowing folks' socks off.
 
Voodoo said:
Was that a Bait and Switch attack? Or do you guys think they really are trying to de-escalate?
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The whole thing seemed odd to me. If Trump were truly concerned about Iran's nuclear program, you would think he might hold off on "mission accomplished" until they were sure the bunker busters actually destroyed the important facilities/equipment. Was it all a sham for the world to appease Bibi?


Either way, the markets don't seem to be worried about it anymore.

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If one were to follow X22Report, he suggested that Trump played the deep state's hand. Lindsey, Levine, Hannity all war hawks pushed for it so he went along with it.

They want war no matter what, or who gets involved. The Great Reset is the end goal.

So he plays along and bombs the nuke facilities taking them out - not a 'bad' thing in the long run. Then he turns it around to a peace agreement which is NOT what the deep state wants at all!

What needs to happen next is Israel's nukes either get surrendered, or given the same treatment as Iran's.
 
So the July Futures options expire today. IE look for them to try and Pin the price at Max Pain. Looks to be about $36-$36.5 today.

I don't think these futures options are that important though, because frankly they don't have much open interest. And with Futures also expiring and being leveraged themselves I think that should be more of the focus.
 
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I am thinking about another purchase if we get near au $3300 & < $35ag? I beem waiting for ag to go back to low 30s for some ETNs.
 
So, I just finished reviewing the latest COMEX silver stock report (activity through 6-24). Between 6-18 and 6-24, COMEX has moved 856.5705 metric tons of silver from eligible to registered. This while adding 142.6804 metric tons overall into the vaults over the same period. It looks like they are preparing for some massive redemptions.
 
I don't know...looks like desperation AND these people are taking delivery. If you go to take Delivery you can NOT be on margin. Margin has no effect on you. Plus, those who are short Also need more margin.
 
We were literally just talking about changing requirements at lunch today. Won't affect holders of physical either. I would post a picture of a nice stack if you all are interested?
 
So far they are clearly trying here today. Expect the PCE to come in a bit hot here soon. But what happens the next few days is pretty important.

Edit: and PCE was slightly higher than expected.
 
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