2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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Kitco Interview with Eric Sprott

This interview with Eric Sprott includes:


"The Indian government came out and said, yeah, we're gonna mandate that mutual funds and ETFs in India can now own up to 35% of their assets in gold and silver," Sprott explained. "And this pool of assets is 385 billion".

This regulatory change formally creates a massive new pipeline for institutional demand in India, opening up the country's $385 billion actively managed stock fund sector to precious metals.

Furthermore, SEBI has officially decoupled its valuation framework from Western benchmarks. Starting April 1, 2026, Indian mutual funds will be mandated to value physical gold and silver using domestic polled spot prices published by recognized local stock exchanges, marking a definitive shift away from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) pricing standard.

This move perfectly aligns with Sprott's assessment that the country plans to circumvent Western exchanges entirely. "We are not going to price off of the LBMA or the Comex," Sprott noted. "We don't want to, we're going to use prices established in India."
 
In addition, most of the stocks available for sale trade in NY and Toronto. Analysts were saying the PM market is so small that just a few points redirected from mainstream stocks to PM stocks and physical bullion will cause prices to rise significantly.
 
 


Gold and silver to pop on the Sunday night/Monday morning open?
 
I would have expected more excitement in the PM's today... maybe because it's Saturday??

 

They did not bomb Iran. They waited for Iran’s entire leadership to sit down in the same room and then they bombed Iran.

Months of intelligence. Thousands of hours of surveillance and signal intercepts. One variable: the moment the Supreme Leader, the President, and senior military command gathered in a single location at the same time.

That moment was 8:15 this morning. Daylight. Every previous Israeli strike on Iran came at night. June 2025 launched in darkness. October 2024 after midnight. Iran’s entire air defense doctrine is built around the assumption that Israel attacks in the dark. Israel attacked in broad daylight because the target was not infrastructure. The target was a meeting.

Reuters confirms strikes targeted Khamenei and Pezeshkian. CNN confirms months of joint US-Israeli planning. Israeli officials confirmed the strike hit the location where Iran’s top officials were gathered. Whether Khamenei was moved before the strike or extracted after is the most consequential unknown on the planet right now. If before, someone inside Tehran’s inner circle told Jerusalem when and where the meeting would happen. If after, the strikes hit the room and he survived. Both scenarios are catastrophic for the regime.

Because Iran’s leadership now knows three things. Israel knew where they were meeting. Israel knew when they were meeting. Israel knew who would be in the room. And everything we watched over the past month, the F-22s at Ovda, the tankers at Ben Gurion, Al Udeid emptied to zero, 270 transport flights, all of it was the delivery architecture for one precision strike on one gathering.

Every future meeting of Iran’s senior leadership now carries one question: does Israel know about this one too.

This is not a military operation. This is the destruction of institutional trust inside a regime. Every general who sits with Khamenei tomorrow will wonder who told Jerusalem about today. Every IRGC commander who receives a meeting summons will calculate whether attendance is duty or a death sentence. Every secure facility in Tehran has been proven insecure.

In June 2025 Israel killed 30 generals in the opening minutes. That was brute force across dispersed targets. This was a scalpel. One meeting. One moment. Months of patience.

Iran fired missiles at six countries in retaliation. Most intercepted. One civilian dead from debris in Abu Dhabi. Saudi Arabia responded by pledging all its capabilities against Iran. The Gulf coalition that did not exist yesterday exists today because Tehran built it by attacking everyone simultaneously.

Israel traded one morning of precision strikes for the permanent destruction of Iran’s command cohesion.

That is not a battle. That is checkmate disguised as a first move. https://open.substack.com/pub/shana...tic-of-collapse-irans?r=6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios
 

Iran just fired missiles at five countries simultaneously. Here is what actually happened to each of them.

Bahrain. Confirmed hit on the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters. Bahrain’s own state news agency reported the strike. No casualty figures released yet. This is the command center for every American naval operation in the Persian Gulf. It was struck.

UAE. Multiple missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from falling debris. The UAE defense ministry confirmed the intercepts. The Emirates just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory from a country it shares a maritime border with.

Qatar. Missile intercepted. Zero damage. The Qatari Interior Ministry confirmed. The same country Iran just attacked is the country that hosted Al Udeid for twenty years as a gesture of regional balance. That balance ended this morning.

Kuwait. KUNA state news agency confirmed missiles were “dealt with” in Kuwaiti airspace. No reported damage. Kuwait, which stayed neutral through every Gulf crisis since 1991, just had Iranian ballistic missiles flying over its cities.

Jordan. Two Iranian ballistic missiles shot down by Jordanian military. Confirmed by the Jordanian armed forces directly. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles in June 2025 as well. That was in defense of Israel. This time Iran targeted Jordan itself.

Saudi Arabia. Fars News claims strikes. No confirmation from any Saudi source. No Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification. Either it did not happen or Riyadh is not yet ready to say it did. Both possibilities carry enormous implications.

Now understand what Iran just accomplished strategically. In attempting to retaliate against Israel and America, the IRGC fired missiles at six sovereign nations in a single morning. Not one of those nations attacked Iran. Bahrain did not bomb Tehran. The UAE did not launch strikes on Isfahan. Qatar hosted diplomatic back channels. Kuwait maintained neutrality for three decades. Jordan was mediating.

Iran just converted every neutral and semi-neutral state in the Gulf into a potential co-belligerent. Every nation whose airspace was violated, whose civilians were killed, whose sovereignty was breached now has legal and political justification to join whatever coalition forms next.

And the damage tells the real story. One civilian dead from debris. Intercepts across four countries. No confirmed destruction of any US military asset. No reported American casualties among 40,000 troops in theater. Iran fired at the entire Gulf and the Gulf caught almost everything.

Compare this to what Israel did to Tehran this morning. Precision strikes on the IRGC Intelligence Directorate. Explosions near the Supreme Leader’s office. Three detonations in central Tehran confirmed by Iranian state media itself.

One side hit what it aimed at. The other side hit one civilian with debris.

This is the asymmetry that will define the next 72 hours. Iran demonstrated intent to strike everywhere and capability to hit almost nothing. The Gulf states demonstrated they can defend themselves. And now those states must decide whether the country that just fired ballistic missiles across their borders gets to do it again.

They will not let it happen again.

Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo.

Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning. Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran.
 
FWIW


RE: The War on Iran

My thoughts are as follows:

1. Iran declared war on the USA in 1979 and has been killing American servicemen and women ever since.

2. Iran has “Death to America” celebrations.

3. Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of international terror attacks.

4. The Iranian mullahs lead a 7th Century death cult. They believe in the Hidden Imam (Google it). 7th Century death cults should never be allowed to have nuclear weapons.

5. Actual Persians love America. The war is with the dictatorial, genocidal mullahs.

6. Trump knows that he campaigned on ending useless, endless wars. He knows he will lose half his base if we are embroiled in an extended ground campaign.

7. I believe the intel (which I have no insider info on) suggests that if we can decapitate the mullahs and destroy the Iranian military’s ability to suppress the nation’s citizenry, that the citizenry will rise up and take over, creating a free and democratic Iran. To know this we almost certainly have been in close contact with dissident leaders and almost certainly have a plan for those dissidents to take control once certain events have occurred.

8. So here is what I think Trump is thinking: conduct an air and naval campaign to decapitate Iran’s leadership and military capabilities; no boots on the ground (with the possible exception of SOF conducting recon/targeting and maybe some select raids); a new civilian government takes charge; profit.

9. Politically, I think Trump is banking on Iran being a peaceful, democratic ally of the USA by the midterms. With Iran off the table, Hezbollah goes away, Hamas goes away, the Gulf Arab states can achieve rapprochement with Israel and—voila!—peace in the Middle East and the GOP sweeps the midterms.

Or at least that’s the plan. A lot can still go wrong. But one thing I have learned—never bet against Trump.
 
Clive as only Clive can do... explains the reason we're all here.

Precious Metals Mining Profits Set to Rise by HUNDREDS of Percent — Analyst Forecasts Are Obsolete​

 
I'm here for the hookers and blow.
 
Mr. Slammy is back on silver. Pre-market was looking good. They can't control the gold market though. The market manipulation on the COMEX makes the Chinese look like the good guys.
 
nickndfl said:
Mr. Slammy is back on silver. Pre-market was looking good. They can't control the gold market though. The market manipulation on the COMEX makes the Chinese look like the good guys.
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certainly seems 90$ is the line in the sand right now ......time will tell
 
The volatility is frustrating to be sure. That's why Au is king. We are getting higher lows all around for sure and it's only a matter of time before we make new highs in Au, Ag & Pt. We may see an annual top in May then go away or on July 4th?
 

Scoop from Axios: Trump administration officials just brokered a major U.S.-Venezuela gold deal.

Venezuela's state-owned mining company (Minerven) agreed to sell up to 1,000 kg of gold (Gold Dore bars) to commodities trader Trafigura, headed for U.S. markets.

Interior Sec. Doug Burgum helped shepherd it during his recent Venezuela visit on oil/minerals. Multimillion-dollar move amid ongoing U.S. push into Venezuelan resources post-MADuro era.
 
Cigarlover said:
View attachment 18642
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Dude, the Silver Institute is about as credible as my arse. If you don't understand that yet its gonna be a problem.

However, its not out of the realm that it is only contained in that range. Its not like the military or any producer wants anyone to know how much product they need. So short of commandeering one and recycling it (prob not recommended) we aren't going to get proof.
 
No I dont give the silver institute a whole lot of credit. David is more credible but if that is his only source then yea, it makes the above worthless. However, at the end of the day it doesn't matter much if it's 5, 50 or 500. Annual production capacity is only 600-650 and they are working to increase that to 1000. 1/2 a million ounces a year isn't going to move the needle much.
 
Silver is range bound in a channel probably until gold backed T-bonds and spot metal floor prices are announced in the summer.
 
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Agreed, either way that's a drop in the bucket. Though top priority and certainly growing rapidly now.
 
I know they are sponsored by the CME group and even have an employee in on camera on occasion. Perhaps I've underestimated the closeness between the two. They probably don't like the Crimex comments in the chat.
 

More:

Venezuela's Massive U.S. Gold Deal <!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
 
"If you read the fine print, you will see that this fund is specifically designed and restricted for investors who never cash out."
 
Someone_else said:
"If you read the fine print, you will see that this fund is specifically designed and restricted for investors who never cash out."
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exactly.........but the issue is while its perfectly fine to limit withdrawals i think at least part of the point is the volume wanting out currently......similar accounts in other big funds are experiencing the same thing but not being as restrictive
 
Fwiw....George Gammons take on the Blackstone issue

 
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