2026 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

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200 dma .......is in the 50s ......... the world isnt lost yet... if it crosses that hold on
we are still up over 100% yoy..... seems like probably 6 months ago was my last purchase, it was some 90% in the 50s /30some times face

seems like a good day to pick up some miner shares
 
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When it reverses it should go crazy again. I don't know when, but my Spidey sense says the summer should be hot?
 

Gold and Silver Take Beating as Arab Gulf States Sell Their Assets to Raise Money​

The Silver Academy
Mar 19, 2026
BREAKING: Gold prices are plunging as major Arab Gulf states dump their gold holdings to raise urgently needed cash, triggering a fast and disorderly selloff in global markets. What began as targeted liquidations to plug budget gaps has now morphed into a broader liquidation wave, with sovereign funds and state-linked entities reportedly offloading bullion and gold-linked assets at scale.


Silver follows gold. In good times it lags higher; in bad events like this, it gets hit harder as liquidity vanishes.

But that’s temporary.

Once the panic phase passes and the real supply‑demand squeeze resumes, collapsing economies will again reach for safe havens. Gold and silver haven’t changed; they’re still finite, monetary metals sitting on the periodic table of elements, not someone’s liability, and that reality will reassert itself.

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Gold and Silver Take Beating as Arab Gulf States Sell Their Assets to Raise Money

BREAKING: Gold prices are plunging as major Arab Gulf states dump their gold holdings to raise urgently needed cash, triggering a fast and disorderly selloff in global markets.
thesilverindustry.substack.com
 
The metals beatdown continues... there's only so much volatility the systems will take before the whole lot collapses into a heap.
 
^^^ What Goldhedge quoted. When big players need to make big plays, we can expect those plays to be big.
I think those plays are almost getting near the bottom prices.

Place your bets, gentlemen!
 
Someone_else said:
^^^ What Goldhedge quoted. When big players need to make big plays, we can expect those plays to be big.
I think those plays are almost getting near the bottom prices.

Place your bets, gentlemen!
Click to expand...

Ummm, the big plays and volatility are what will destroy the casino. One upswing and no physical to deliver will blow out the basement car park.

And that's coming, fast.
 
Eventially the prices of gold and silver will be fixed like it was for decades. Speculation in those commodities will be gone. Financialization of many assets with be replaced with a CBDC.
 
Gas prices weren't high enough so a refinery in Tx exploded. One of the largest in the US is what I hear. I'm sure it's nothing to do with the war but man I bet Iran is saying karma is a bitch right now.
 
Got nuthin to do with Karma. Bastards decided now is time for the price explosion / rug pull. Time to restrict the peasants access to stuff and milk them dry.

Heard another podcast from the 70's inflation, guy talked about how they shut down pipelines in the West while New York was in crisis... Government orders ya know.
 
Posted it over there might as well post it here for Martin Armstrong fans. This is his computer not his personal thoughts.

Gold down into the week of April 13th. Targets 4190 3845 and possibly as low as 2800. I would imagine Silver goes along with Gold as well as the miners. April 8th 2025 marked the low of many major mining shares. AG HL CDE were 5 dollar stocks at that time.
 
Cigarlover said:
... a refinery in Tx exploded. ...
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, this is actually not an uncommon event. Some explosions are bigger than others, but America's refineries are old and they are constantly battling the risk/reward question on shutting the plant down to do maintenance projects. Sometimes, they push the envelope too far.
 
Nah, this time they took that 2x and weren't happy. They resold the same shares to like 3 different investors, then stole any proceeds overnight and scalped some futures. Then they leveraged it up another 4x off the books to just keep any profits.
 
Cigarlover said:
So much for safe haven and protection from inflation.
Click to expand...
Never said it was a safe haven from bankers and market manipulations. The not-so-funny thing is the volatility we are experiencing with PMs is exactly what many other nations are experiencing with their currencies.

Since you now know what pain is, thank you sir may I have another.
 
Viking said:
Who programs his “computer?”
Click to expand...
Well they locked him up because he wouldn't turn it over to the govt. so it's not what you're implying. Centuries of data but you can disregard it. It's been off before.
 
Truth takes longer...


When your current account deficit explodes because oil went from $72 to $94, you sell what's liquid. Gold was liquid. The question is who bought it and at what discount.

 
Is this a problem?


Do you understand what UBS just did..

they locked $469 million in a real estate fund and told investors they can't have their money back for up to 3 years.. they're calling it a "withdrawal halt".. it has another name..

here's why this matters.. in June 2007, Bear Stearns froze two of their hedge funds.. told investors the same thing.. "temporary.. market conditions.. we'll sort it out.." 14 months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and the entire global financial system went with it..

the "gate" on a fund is a confession.. it means UBS looked at their real estate portfolio, looked at how many people want out, and realised they don't have the liquidity to pay them..

commercial real estate has been quietly bleeding since COVID.. office vacancy at record highs.. WeWork gone.. buildings worth half what they were.. UBS just confirmed what the market has been pretending isn't true..

someone always knows before you do.. trust me..

and when they stop you from taking your own money, they've already made their decision.
 
What happens when money wants out, but the door is too small?


Iran war didn’t create the problem.
It just pulled the curtain back.

And what’s underneath doesn’t look good.

We’re not watching a geopolitical event anymore.
This is starting to look like the early stages of a financial one.

Oil ripping higher wasn’t just a headline.
It reset the entire macro backdrop overnight.

Higher energy → inflation risk comes back → rate cuts get pushed out.
That alone is enough to stress the system.

Now look at what followed.

UBS just halted withdrawals in a real estate fund.
Up to 3 years.

That’s not a routine move.
That’s what happens when money wants out, but the door is too small.

And this is where it gets uncomfortable.

A lot of these funds were sold as “liquid” exposure.
But the assets underneath aren’t.

You can’t sell buildings overnight.
You can’t meet redemptions if everyone shows up at once.

So the only option is to stop them.

This isn’t isolated either.

Private credit is seeing the same pressure.
Real estate is already struggling with higher financing costs.
Buyers are stepping back.

Everything works fine… until liquidity is needed.

Then you find out what’s real and what isn’t.

The sequence is pretty straightforward:

Oil shock → inflation uncertainty → tighter financial conditions
→ investors start pulling money
→ funds struggle to meet exits
→ gates go up

And once that starts, it feeds on itself.

People don’t wait around to find out if they’ll be next.
They pull capital wherever they still can.

That’s how stress spreads.

Not in one big collapse, but in small breaks that start linking together.

The bigger point here,

The system was already stretched.
Too much depended on low rates, easy liquidity, smooth exits.

The war just sped things up.

What you’re seeing now are early cracks.
Nothing dramatic yet, but the kind you don’t ignore.

Because if liquidity keeps getting tighter from here,
these “contained” issues won’t stay contained for long.

This is how these cycles usually begin.
 

Oracle Firing Tens Of Thousands As CDS Explodes To Financial Crisis Record​

Two months ago, when ORCL announced it would raise $50 billion in a combination of stock and bonds to ease market fears about its soaring funding costs and lack of actual revenues and "to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from the company’s largest cloud customers, including Advanced Micro Devices, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, OpenAI, TikTok and xAI" we said that this latest example of financial engineering, which perhaps most importantly was meant to push its soaring Credit Default Swap lower, was doomed to fail.

We didnt have long to wait: since the Feb 1 announcement, the stock has tumbled to fresh multi year lows...

Oracle Firing Tens Of Thousands As CDS Explodes To Financial Crisis Record<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
 

Oracle used to be a money factory... everyone that hitched their wagon, partners, system integrators, 3rd party devs made bank without even trying.
 

Half, ha, try 10% if your lucky in many cases.
 
Yeah, it's Ai Asian guy again, but in this video he condenses an over 1hr interview into 14min.

Bill Holter's Monday Warning: "April Will Break EVERYTHING"​

Bill Holter just issued his most urgent warning yet. His exact words: "April will break everything." And when a man who has spent 40+ years in precious metals, who called the 2008 crisis before it happened, who has been warning about the COMEX delivery system for years — when THAT man says April is the month the system cracks — you stop what you're doing and you LISTEN.
 
Added more mining shares last week. I'm not 100% confident in these markets while this war is going on but that big bottom tail forced me off the sidelines a bit.
 
Cigarlover said:
Added more mining shares last week. I'm not 100% confident in these markets while this war is going on but that big bottom tail forced me off the sidelines a bit.
Click to expand...
Just my opinion....but other than fuel costs going up its hard for me to not see miners booking large profits at x3 metals.....other than if they switch to mining low grade areas which sometimes they do
 
Exposing the Trillion dollar private credit fraud...

Trillion Dollar Shadow Bank Just Went Into CRISIS MODE (It's Systemic)​

 
synopsis of video above

GROK: George Gammon says Private credit is tanking in this video. What should the average "Joe" do to protect himself?

Thought for 27s

Private credit (loans made by non-bank lenders like Apollo, Blackstone, etc.) isn't in full collapse mode yet, but there is real stress in parts of the market right now.George Gammon's video (uploaded late March 2026) highlights Apollo Debt Solutions, a ~$15–25B semi-liquid private credit fund (structured as a BDC), which received redemption requests for 11.2% of shares—more than double its 5% quarterly cap—and only fulfilled about 45% of those requests.

cnbc.com +1

Similar gating or partial payouts have hit funds from BlackRock, Ares, Blue Owl, Blackstone, and others amid surging withdrawal demands.

wealthmanagement.com

The drivers are higher defaults (especially in software/AI-disrupted middle-market companies), concerns over valuations (some loans potentially marked too high), and a liquidity mismatch: these funds are illiquid but offered quarterly redemptions to retail/accredited investors. It's a ~$1.8–3T asset class that's grown explosively, and this is its first real stress test in a higher-rate environment. Gammon calls it systemic "cockroaches" and compares patterns to 2008, arguing marks are fake and it could accelerate into a broader credit crunch.

youtube.com

For the average "Joe" (regular wage earner with a 401(k), mortgage, some savings, maybe a few stocks or a house), direct exposure is usually low. Most private credit is for institutions or accredited investors. Your main risks are indirect: tighter credit for businesses → slower economy → possible recession, stock volatility, job impacts, or housing slowdown.

What you should actually do (practical, no-hype steps)
  1. Prioritize liquidity and an emergency fund
    Build or maintain 6–12 months of living expenses in liquid, safe places: high-yield savings accounts, short-term Treasuries, or money-market funds. In a credit crunch or recession, cash is king—don't get stuck in illiquid assets when you need money.
  2. Kill high-interest debt
    Focus on credit cards, personal loans, or any variable-rate debt first. Fixed-rate mortgages are generally fine. Avoid new leverage (e.g., HELOCs for spending).
  3. Review your actual investments
    • Check your 401(k), IRA, or brokerage: Do you hold any BDCs, interval funds, or private-credit ETFs/funds? (They're more common now for retail.) If so, understand the liquidity restrictions and redemption rules.
    • Rebalance toward a diversified, defensive mix if you're heavily in growth stocks. Consider a small allocation to Treasuries, gold, or broad commodities as a hedge against financial stress (Gammon often leans this way in his broader macro views).
    • Long-term horizon? Don't panic-sell equities—historically, staying invested through volatility beats timing the bottom.
  4. Protect your income and lifestyle
    • Recession/job risk is the bigger personal threat for most people. Build skills, network, or a side hustle.
    • Keep spending in check and avoid lifestyle inflation.
  5. Don't chase the "next big thing" or overreact
    Private credit offered high yields but came with illiquidity and credit risk—that risk is showing up. The average Joe was never meant to be the main player here. Ignore hype (including paid "cheat code" communities) and stick to boring, time-tested basics.
Bottom line: This is a yellow-to-orange flag in the alternatives world, not an immediate red-alert doomsday for your checking account. The system has seen redemption gates before without total meltdown, but it does raise the odds of slower growth or volatility later in 2026. Focus on what you control: debt, cash buffer, diversification, and income security. That beats trying to outsmart shadow banking from your couch.If your situation is more complex (e.g., large retirement portfolio with alternatives), consider a fee-only fiduciary advisor. Stay calm, stay liquid, and keep perspective—most crises look worse in real time than they do in hindsight.
 
Gammon is just having fun with that term, as it was used by Jamie Dimon recently.
 
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