About the carry trade....

[Voodoo]

Hey, WHAT"S ALL that shaking in Japan again? Calm the F down would you?

 

[nickndfl]

Japan was selling USTs to support the yen, but it didn't work. That's where it's going to start. The ruble is still the strongest currency in 2025.

 

[Voodoo]

Still extending today on their 40 years... 3.515%... Personally, my bid would be around hmmm 50%, maybe. Nah not for a 40 year, lol.

 

[Voodoo]

Actually the 10-year looks more interesting and coming under pressure. Getting towards the high end of the ascending Triangle on the third or I suppose that could be seen as the fourth touch given its a weekly chart.

 

[pmbug]

The interval pace for the BoJ to intervene is increasing. There appears to be a bit of stress in the system. Per Dario's comment:

... On Monday, the 5th of August 2024, the Japanese stock market came very close to a total implosion, and that would have dragged down with it many other major financial markets, especially the US one, as a result of the forced unwinding of hundreds of billions of USD in leverage linked to the JPY carry trade.
...

More:

HOW LONG WILL THE BOJ BE ABLE TO AVOID THE COLLAPSE OF A MAJOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTION? - JustDario

It’s summer, and many traders are already enjoying their holidays and stock portfolio gains, which are growing every passing day, regardless of the circumstances. No matter that the underlying economies are falling more and more into a dark hole, a larger number of people are struggling to make...

justdario.com

 

[pmbug]

...
Meanwhile the forex pair gets monkey hammered this morning. Maybe this is why...

Japanese yen surges as Ishiba wins leadership race to become next Japan prime minister | investingLive

Traders were pricing in the possibility of Takaichi winning earlier before the run-off vote

www.forexlive.com