Alf Field: Silver to $158 in the next wave

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News he received an email from his good friend Alf Field predicting silver would move quickly to the $158 level. ...

Here a portion of what Alf Field had to say about how silver will get to $158:

“We can now attempt to make some price forecasts. Silver, as with gold, is starting intermediate wave 3 of Major THREE, which should be the longest and strongest wave in the bull market. It should certainly be longer than intermediate wave 1 which was the gain from $8.77 to $49.52, or +464%, as shown above.

Thus the gain in wave 3 of Major THREE should be larger than +464%. It should be a gain of at least 500%. Starting from the $26.39 low, a gain of 500% would produce a target price of $158.34 for silver. That is the number which equates with the $4500 price forecast for gold and produces a silver to gold ratio of 28.4 ($4500 divided by 158.34).

The gain in gold was forecast to be 200% for this move while the forecast rise in the silver price is 500%. Silver is again predicted to perform better than gold based on these EW calculations.”
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More: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...lls_for_$158_Silver_&_Swiss_Look_to_Gold.html

If silver goes to 158 dollars, I will retire early!

Actually, if silver gets that high, I would be afraid of what the rest of the world looked like at that point, and would I be assigning guards for the night shift on the roof lookout, and arming them with a .556 battle rifle.

ancona said:

Actually, if silver gets that high, I would be afraid of what the rest of the world looked like at that point, and would I be assigning guards for teh night shift on the roof lookout, and arming them with a .556 battle rifle.

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This is my concern as well.. Though i was pretty worried what the world would like like with $2000 an ounce gold when it was in the 400s. In all honesty, not much has really changed from the day to day perspective. It's entirely possible that silver goes to 150 before the public even notices.

I think it's mostly a matter of rate, not the target so much. That old boiling frog thing. People will tolerate quite a bit of fiat inflation if it's slow enough - look at ours since the Fed began - pretty darn big over the period, but at a (mostly) slow rate. If we had $150 silver in a few months - that's trouble. A few years, not so much and no surprise.

Gold didn't go from 400 to 2k in a day...

Gold to Silver Ratio

If we maintain near the standard 50:1 or 47:1 ratio, if silver went to $150, gold would be at $7500/oz. Which doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Wonderful thought though. Silver did experience a 700%+ gain from 1975 to 1980, but that was b/c of the Hunt brothers cornering the market, which MAY never happen again.

The GSR went down to 33 before the May (coordinated CME) smash last May. It's quite possible for it to drop down there again if Sprott's buying activities force a supply squeeze on the large institutional investment sized bars.

Our current GSR is much higher than historical/geologic scarcity based, and taking into account that nearly half of silver mined today is consumed by industry and is currently irrecoverable (economically), it makes just another irrational fact about today's markets. As DCF said, they can stay irrational for longer than one can stay solvent (I like it ). My point is, I find this kind of analysis just SILLY, because a) our today's market are not driven by rationale, but by emotions and headlines, b) it can be calculated BOTH ways, and instead of projecting that "silver is undervalued" comparing it to today's gold pricew & historical ratios, one could equally said "gold is overvalued", and have exactly as "valid" argument in this case.

I just think, that mere technicalities are NOT what will determine any of these prices (gold/silver), in today's minefield market that might collapse at any given moment, it all will be based on the investors sentiment, AND governments actions/controls implemented (sure there will be such in the future)/ possible new currencies.

Silver being "poor man's gold" - is it why silver is doing steadily, steadilly, but much better than gold, in recent time? Is it Joe Public, voting with their wallets, and buying all therse Silver Eagles? Dunno, but I think it might be something to it. These Joe Publics, once they make their mind to "fuck them, markets", they will be definitely more persistent than "hot money", and will probably just want to hold on to the real buying power of whatever savings they got.

Quite a bit of physical buying is coming from China and India. Not just the governments but the people. Contrary to what the media tells us, it's not JUST because of superstition.. They are treating silver and gold as investments.

Derek,
I think you are correct in your assumption, but you left out that the Chinese have historically mistrusted their government. After over half a century of serial abuse, they are wary of this "new economy" and are hedging just in case. The ability to own gold openly is relatively new for them as well, since the government only recently liberalized their PM policies.

Derek and ancona, you are both correct. Even the US Constitution, and especially the Bill of Rights came on the heels of more than a decade of absolute disaster, anarchy and mayhem, public and private, following US winning of independence. The Founders had government mistrust issues of their own, but they absolutely knew that everyone else did as well. Lots of angry jaded hornets to appeal to. The Bill of Rights, which has since been horribly eroded, was an attempt to address those concerns, and all of that distrust.

In many ways China, with leadership that is removed by generations from Mao, and starting with pragmatist and reformer Deng Xiaoping ("No matter if it is a white cat or a black cat; as long as it can catch mice") has been steadily devolving power to the people, even while clinging, not to "socialism", but only "socialist ideals" and a "harmonious society". They are as much communist-in-name-only as we are a free market capitalist society. What a joke these labels are, all around.

It's still a one party power monopoly system (as opposed to our two party duopoly), and to that extent totalitarian - but it's filled with pragmatists who really can and do think in terms of long term survival - even down to what liberties that requires at the individual level.

China's leadership [rightly] fears civil unrest and revolution more than anything else, and it's obvious to me, having lived there, that they are telling their own people to look after themselves. They are giving out a strong twist on JFK's "ask instead what you can do for your country". That bullshit is just not spoken. China's leadership is more directly saying, in many ways, "Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask instead what you can do for yourselves."

It's very strange seeing it and hearing it firsthand, observing some starkly contrasting dynamics at work, and realizing that both the west and the east are fighting, and trying desperately to come to grips with, their own ideological dichotomies and self-contradictions.

China is in many ways, just like the US, with one stark difference, no bill of rights. They have a pretty open economy and are starting to step up the slope to second world status, but in doing so, they will awaken desire in their billion plus people for things that we in America take for granted, but things that they will have to pillage the entire earthg for to provide them to their people.

as US citizens loose their freedoms and the Chineese gradually get greater freedom, there may be a meeting point .....

kjansen1969 said:

If we maintain near the standard 50:1 or 47:1 ratio, if silver went to $150, gold would be at $7500/oz. Which doesn't seem likely anytime soon. Wonderful thought though. Silver did experience a 700%+ gain from 1975 to 1980, but that was b/c of the Hunt brothers cornering the market, which MAY never happen again.

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I'm watching the GSR more than the actual price of either. That is to me the real indicator, and, by the way, where a fair amount of wealth can be added to.

Well, this one didn't age very well...although I'm heavy into Ag and think I'm going to see some big movement in the not-too-distant future.

Farpdinkle said:

Well, this one didn't age very well...although I'm heavy into Ag and think I'm going to see some big movement in the not-too-distant future.

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OP was posted 11 years ago!

With today's GSR, what would gold be at if silver ran to $158? Somewhere over $14k...



One day I seriously need to trade my 1oz gold for 1/2 oz gold....

Silver is the most manipulated market in the world. That's why there are almost no silver miners left.

Yep, but it's only a matter of time with Ag. The mines provide ~800 million ozt per year while 1.2 to 1.4 million ozt are used every year.

Even a first grader can do the math on that one

Farpdinkle said:

Yep, but it's only a matter of time with Ag. The mines provide ~800 million ozt per year while 1.2 to 1.4 million ozt are used every year.

Even a first grader can do the math on that one

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I'll be 71 real soon. I've been hearing this bull$hit since 1980. Widows and orphans long the SP500 in a Bogle fund are up 40 times. think about it.

Lancers32 said:

I'll be 71 real soon. I've been hearing this bull$hit since 1980. Widows and orphans long the SP500 in a Bogle fund are up 40 times. think about it.

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So true. I've been a part of PM forums since GIM 1. Have watched members die of old age before ever seeing the "to the moon" PM launch they felt was about to happen.
The one that always gets me is: "I'm glad the price is going down so I can load up on some more"

This guy is pretty optimistic. (6:20 min mark)

No price point for silver is given however and I don't endorse the silver mining stock he is recommending.

There are troubling new signs this morning that this war is spiraling out of control on two main fronts. The first front is the physical front and the second front is the economic front. Last March Russia changed some important rules that allowed them to quietly move away from U.S. dollar dominance while no one was watching.

Farpdinkle said:

Yep, but it's only a matter of time with Ag. The mines provide ~800 million ozt per year while 1.2 to 1.4 million ozt are used every year.

Even a first grader can do the math on that one

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A first grader would probably know the difference between a Million and a Billion.

You are correct, sir. Thanks for the catch

Farpdinkle said:

You are correct, sir. Thanks for the catch

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it's fine, your point wasn't lost. Siver will experience a physical squeeze at some point and the price will adjust accordingly. What we've sucked at so far is predicting"When".

PM's are real assets.

Debt is thought of as being an 'asset', but the reality is



until...





The question is "How long can they keep it going before they can't?"

It's been said 2008 'should' have been the end and Obama said they wouldn't be 'kicking the can down the road'... now it's 15 years they've been doing just that...

Lancers32 said:

I'll be 71 real soon. I've been hearing this bull$hit since 1980. Widows and orphans long the SP500 in a Bogle fund are up 40 times. think about it.

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How many times does it have to be explained?

Let me try one more time: You do not WANT silver to be at $158. When it goes there -- and infinitely PAST THERE -- you are not going to sell it to get your "profit" in bolivars US dollars!

You are going to have all the wealth you had squirreled away in PM's. NO CHANGE. NO LOSS.

Lastly, in case you haven't followed, just say this to yourself at least once:

Silver at or passing $158 is a terrible thing. It means the last wheels have fallen off the US Fiat train.

Unca Walt said:

How many times does it have to be explained?

Let me try one more time: You do not WANT silver to be at $158. When it goes there -- and infinitely PAST THERE -- you are not going to sell it to get your "profit" in bolivars US dollars!

You are going to have all the wealth you had squirreled away in PM's. NO CHANGE. NO LOSS.

Lastly, in case you haven't followed, just say this to yourself at least once:

Silver at or passing $158 is a terrible thing. It means the last wheels have fallen off the US Fiat train.

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That's nonsense. How many things are you paying multiples in price even since 2010?

+$100 would just be keeping you even.

If silver went from ~$22 to ~$158 overnight, it could be explained as massive short squeeze or a breakdown of the futures market or whatever.

If silver went from ~$22 to ~$158 overnight, and gold also saw a similar move, it would likely signal severe problems for the dollar.

If silver went from ~$22 to ~$158 over the span of 5-10 years, it would be hailed as an amazing investment in a bull run.

Context is everything.

Unca Walt said:

How many times does it have to be explained?

Let me try one more time: You do not WANT silver to be at $158. When it goes there -- and infinitely PAST THERE -- you are not going to sell it to get your "profit" in bolivars US dollars!

You are going to have all the wealth you had squirreled away in PM's. NO CHANGE. NO LOSS.

Lastly, in case you haven't followed, just say this to yourself at least once:

Silver at or passing $158 is a terrible thing. It means the last wheels have fallen off the US Fiat train.

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Unca, the only possible beneficiary would be those in debt.
It seems counter-intuitive but those holding a half-million dollar mortgage in a hyper-inflationary environment will benefit most. Every time a zero is added to the dollar, one is proportionally taken off existing debt.

Jodster said:

Unca, the only possible beneficiary would be those in debt.
It seems counter-intuitive but those holding a half-million dollar mortgage in a hyper-inflationary environment will benefit most. Every time a zero is added to the dollar, one is proportionally taken off existing debt.

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Not so good if interest rates go to 20% and youve lost your job .........
I saw grown men in tears when interest rates briefly hit 18% and there was no way they could service their mortgage payments
I have pondered the idea of taking out a big loan and buying property and riding the wave, like many of us did in the inflationery times of the 80's -90's . Its just that the gold stash might get wiped before inflation makes the amount of debt insignificant and easily paid off.

Silver to $125?