Beep beep beep

[mike]

Back the truck up! PMs going down again.

 

[pmbug]

We're gonna need a bigger truck.

 

[mike]

I got my eye on some maples.

 

[bushi]

...For what it is worth, the price of Au Krugs & Ag Filharmonics is at/below all time lows, since I have been paying attention (which would be roughly 1.5- 2yrs now), in my local/online shop.

I simply track my own purchases in the spreadsheet, along with the minimum price that I've ever noticed on their website. That's all in with their premiums, so doesn't necessarily trace spot price 100%

Krugs: Min. price: €1,135 Current price: €1,143
Ag Phils: Min. price €24.05 Current price: €23.85

 

[bushi]

For what it's worth #2. (please, experienced charters, laugh at me if I am talking nonsense), it kinda looks to me like double bottom pattern forming, with volume decreasing since the start of formation, we might be fast approaching the second bottom region right now. If someone feels adventurous, might dip a finger into the golden pot at around $1350 price, and if you want more confirmation, watch for gold bouncing back swiftly to $1475 levels from there, with volumes increasing as it approaches this confirmation level. Which, if the sharp drop marking the beginning of that (alleged, still in formation) pattern is anything to go by, would have to happen rather in one quick hurry, and would NOT give you too much time, to backup the truck - full speed approach and handbrake turn might be more appropriate there @1350 levels :rotflmbo:

That would be signalling trend reversal, if confirmed - now please, some of our experienced technicians, grade my homework, take it apart, and add what I've missed in one of my very first jabs at TA (if TA actually still matters anything in PMs, that is )

 

[mmerlinn]

Bushi, a double bottom is entirely possible here. However with the sharp drop off of the cliff a few weeks ago the more likely scenario is that this consolidation period marks the halfway point of the drop. If that is correct, then look for the bottom to be around 1260 or so, then watch for a triple bottom to form. My best GUESS at this time is that we won't see the final bottom until late October, and the bottom could even be around 1150 or so.

 

[bushi]

got you, thanks That also makes a lot of sense

 

[mike]

You'll drive yourself crazy trying to predict dips. I think it's better to buy on a regular basis, whenever you can, and if the price feels fair at the time.

The bottom line is that banks hoard gold for a reason. They wouldn't do so if it was a worthless relic. In fact, banks are employing Gresham's law to the max.

 

[bushi]

hey mike, I am not obsessed with picking the exact bottom, and I do believe, that in the long(er) term, it will not be that much significant, if your DCA price was 1.3k or 1.5k, in terms of fiat - only, I think about it in the following way: if I manage to keep my DCA costs 10% lower than doing this completely passively - well, I'll end up with 10% more metals in my stack. and that 10% difference, I hope, will be worth A LOT when the baloon goes up.


....and if it doesn't go up (seems impossible to me, but hey...) - it will be just prudent thing to do, and my children will inherit 10% bigger stack.

 

[bushi]

hi guys,

OK so my personal "all time lows, since I kept track" , have been breached, and yet again, it seem to pay to listen to more experienced guys here - thanks mmerlin

BUT, another interesting observation:

IN the slaughter days during last few months, while spot prices were going down, and then back up - as you know already, I am keeping track of both my purchases (all in, including dealer's markup AND shipping costs - because this is the only price that matters to me, as this is the figure that goes out of my wallet), AND the minimum price, observed on the dealer's site.

So I've noticed an interesting thing - silver coins at the dealer's, have NEVER approached spot lows, and in fact, looking at the charts today, I thought "hell, shouldda been buying some more back then, it bounced back nicely already, and would have bought MUCH cheaper". Right? Well, NO. Went to a dealer site, and put today's figures into my spreadsheet. Results:

Krugs: yes, bounced back 4.19% from my tracked "dealer's all time lows", that's some quite noticeable difference
Austrian Philharmonics: nope, they are more or less flat, just slightly above the "dealer's all time lows" 1.58% bounce. Reason: silver philharmonics actually NEVER went down enough, to fully reflect the drop in the Ag spot price.

Moral of the story: There seem to be enough time, after violent moves down, to confirm these interim "bottoms", and buy on reversals, without having to make quick, risky moves, and without missing the bulk of the buying opportunity.

Cheers!

 

[DSAbug]

Moral of the story: There seem to be enough time, after violent moves down, to confirm these interim "bottoms", and buy on reversals, without having to make quick, risky moves, and without missing the bulk of the buying opportunity.

Bushi.. Don't expect there to be neon signs telling you the time is right to buy and that the lows are in. We are setup for an impulse move higher which may or may not happen in the short term. If it does, you will have missed your chance. Just like people who were waiting for $500 (50% drop) in 2008 missed their chance.

I've seen this play out before. Most people do not participate in the recovery following bull market corrections because they are sitting on their hands.

 

[bushi]

yeah, I understand - I am not sitting, merely, I haven't missed that much of the opportunity, as the ticker reading would suggest - versus if I bought at "the lowest of the lows", or trying to catch a falling knife.

 

[MasterQ]

Considering we did peak 13% from the lowest low this year I would say picking bottoms (if you are good at it) is quite a feat!

-Q

 

[Potemkin]

We're gonna need a bigger truck.

The truck is not the problem, we're gonna need more money to buy with!

 

[bushi]

Considering we did peak 13% from the lowest low this year I would say picking bottoms (if you are good at it) is quite a feat!

-Q

Tut,tut, masterQ - haven't you read my post? ;-) The actual PHYSICAL prices haven't gone even close to the lowest lows, and especially, for silver. Yes I agree with regards to gold, it would be a neat treat to get some at the year's low prices, but not a basement bargain, but silver - not significant move at all, and in comparison to spot price change - a joke.




Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

 

[ancona]

Bushi - Q,
My LCS has extremely high premiums on everything! As a matter of fact, junk is going for more than generic 1 oz bars right now, because he simply cannot get any. As far as "spot" is concerned, he just uses it for a starting point because that is what everyone has always done, not because it represents anything close to silver value. Guys like yourself and Q watch the charts because of paper you hold [I guess] but the real deal is significantly higher than the price of paper silver. I sure am glad my silver is real and not paper.

 

[MasterQ]

Yes I was referring to trading in that post.

What little of paper I still have from trying to do a quick turnaround (lesson learned) I haven't bought since.

The sooner I can unload that shit the better.

It's been physical the whole way down my frirends.

-Q

 

[bushi]

...my inventory of paper assets, of all kinds: $0.00




Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 2

 

[ancona]

My inventory of "paper assets" is as follows:

Toilet paper, 88 rolls 2-ply
Feminine paper stuff, 180 day supply
Paper plates, 5 X packs 250 ct.
Paper napkins, 7.5 packs X 1,000 ct.
Printer paper, 12 reams 8.5" x 11"
Fiat bills [paper] Plenty x well........plenty

;-)

 

[Aubuy]

That feminine paper stuff is going to be worth more than gold if it turns out everything crashes. You might want to re-allocate.... :nugget:

 

[Jay]

That feminine paper stuff is going to be worth more than gold if it turns out everything crashes. You might want to re-allocate.... :nugget:

the grocery I work for had a "feminine paper stuff" giveaway awhile back. Free. Bing made me get two cases every day for the week or so it was on. the other employees looked at me funny. We have a roomfull of them now.

They call them manhole covers in the Philippines.

 

[MasterQ]

hehehe...manhole covers...that's a good one..I'll make sure to heighten the mood one night/morning.

-Q

(oh yeah on feminine papers..I'll just get the hose. hehe)

 

[bushi]

My inventory of "paper assets" is as follows:

Toilet paper, 88 rolls 2-ply
Feminine paper stuff, 180 day supply
Paper plates, 5 X packs 250 ct.
Paper napkins, 7.5 packs X 1,000 ct.
Printer paper, 12 reams 8.5" x 11"
Fiat bills [paper] Plenty x well........plenty

;-)

...but, but hey, ancona, in this case - these are actually the only PHYSICAL paper assets, that I've heard of :rotflmbo:

 

[MasterQ]

...but, but hey, ancona, in this case - these are actually the only PHYSICAL paper assets, that I've heard of :rotflmbo:

Wait I got it!

Toilet Paper!
Feminine paper....Ass sets...I get it! :rotflmbo:

ok I'm done with the childish humor..sheesh..what does it take to get you people to smile?

-Q

 

[Jay]

is anybody buying? Finally paid off the credit card I used to buy at the last big dip (18 plus) and thinking about pulling the trigger again. There are five of us in this house working, but I'm the only one interested in PM's. And paying the other bills...

the good news is that everyone is motivated, so I think they will be OK no matter what....

 

[MasterQ]

Last buy for me was 22 then that cliff drop.

I was waiting to see how bad the damage went.

Kicked myself for not buying at 18. Didn't know if we were going to revisit to solidify that bottom.

Never thought we would see anything in the teens this year so maybe that helps.

-Q

 

[Jay]

Paul Sims has 2013 rolls ASE for 502. Bullion Direct is cheapest at 462.40 APMEX 508. Went with PS cause I like them. (also S&H is 5.00 flat, no matter the purchase).

 

[bushi]

OK... so I did pull the trigger this time, and it wasn't that smart (because I haven't done too much of TA, as abysmal as my skills in that area are, but I cudda and shudda employed some of the good TA hints shared here, and because I bought quite a chunk this time). So, stupid as it might be, the deal is done, and I need some more storage in my squirreled away stashes

FWIW, I just wanted to DCA my holdings closer to current spot prices, and today, Ag that I can buy here, was at my "personal all time lows" - all in (premium+S&H included) .

I have practically pulled "Goldman Sachs London Whale trade" on silver, doubling my holdings, and bringing my DCA costs of Ag down to +5.8% of today's net dealer's price(NOT including S&H), but including S&H and all, in my DCA'd price. Clear as mud I suppose, but my intention was to be as real as possible with my actual costs incurred, vs. the current price to pay for the same stack.

Not too shabby for a guy, who started thinking seriously about stacking in 2011 . I will either congratulate myself in months to come, or not :rotflmbo:

...the only difference between honorable world renowned bank, and me humble self is, I am not leveraged at all, I couldn't influence the market price, and such.

I hope the shiny stuff resumes the move up soon enough, so I will not loose years of opportunity cost, but if it doesn't happen.... so be it.... I will be sitting on unrealized losses for as long as it takes, ultimately, if the need be - passing the ballast onto my boys.

 

[ancona]

I pulled a different trigger this weekend. I was at an estate sale and bought about fifty ounces of sterling flatware [solid sterling] for an average of 11 dollars an ounce. Not bad for an afternoon of work!

 

[DCFusor]

For gold, my system says wait awhile. Note in this chart that every time gold crosses above a falling 50 sma - it goes right back down and the sma becomes resistance, whereas when gold crosses the 50 sma with the sma rising - it goes on a tear. You can get this chart at www.ino.com.
I suspect that TA isn't that great in the current manipulation environment, but so far, so good. I'm waiting a bit to double (or more) down, myself. Keeping a crap-ton of dry powder for such an event. The recent pop did affect the slope of the sma so maybe soon...



This is, of course, a point of view from a trading, not stacking, perspective, but I think a little applies either way.

Ancona - I know a local jeweler who does just what you did, and re-casts what he scores at flea markets, transforming into higher value goods than silverware. He of course knows how to tell the plated stuff from solid sterling. He's making several times his cost by adding the labor to make it into rings and so on.

 

[MasterQ]

Right now I"m looking into refi and purchase investment to rent.

Need to not have all my eggs in one basket.

-Q

 

[DCFusor]

No one should ever have all their eggs in one basket - outside the one - your life IS all your eggs, right? And you only have one, AFAIK. I do PM's after my land (paid off), machine shop, skills...connections...water system, solar power, food stash and garden - a fleet of vehicles with less than 20k miles total... (there's more but...opsec) you get the idea.

 

[bushi]

Right now I"m looking into refi and purchase investment to rent.

Need to not have all my eggs in one basket.

-Q

...ouch... Do you want to be caught in a forcefully-reflated-housing-bubble-2.0??

Quick reality check: house A was too expensive for av. 'Murcan, to get the mortgage/financing, therefore it was on sale, got price cut, etc. Still, it is TOO EXPENSIVE for statistical 'Murcan to finance it, so it is STILL on sale, and nobody moves in.

...here comes "investors" to the rescue... They buy houses in spades, because they are "really cheap now", so they'll buy them as an "investment" (read: speculative bet).

Where the whole reasoning comes unglued: IF THE HOUSES ARE TOO EXPENSIVE FOR PEOPLE TO BUY TO OWN THEM, THEY WILL BE ALSO TOO EXPENSIVE TO RENT THEM PROFITABLY. So, you will either rent it BELOW your financing costs (loosing "investment", from get go), OR, it will stay unoccupied (if no one was willing to pay THEIR financing costs on the house, you might rest assured that nobody will pay YOUR financing costs, PLUS your markup, PLUS your maintenance costs - simple)

So you can either loose money, or loose money - if you try to "invest" in housing, currently. The ONLY way you can "make money" on housing, is assuming that the housing has bottomed out, and the new BUBBLE is forming.

Yeah, right, it worked out so well in the (not so distant) past...

...meanwhile, the subprime mortgages are back on the table, "For Sale" signs have been replaced with "For Rent", the Fed is buying 40billions worth of MBS every effing month... and somebody has to be left holding the bag...
Make sure it is not you, guys.

DISCLAIMER: this is not a financial advice, of course. Make your own mind, do your own diligence, make your own decisions.

 

[MasterQ]

Haha..bushi..great read.

A little insight for ya.

I've been in the real estate business for over 20 years.

That being said, the Texas, really the San Antonio market didn't get hit as bad as the rest of the country /cough california cough.

We have been expanding year over year and quite a many of you folks out there have been migrating down here.

I was averaging about 10-12% appreciation year over year on my home alone.

I only figuratively lost about 15% during the bubble collapse but that was after 5 straight years of gains so really not a loss at all.

I'm not going to go on and preach that I am the best investor or know all the answers cause I certainly am not nor ever will be.

I do have an eye for property and with the growth of San Antonio with few being able to afford homes still (the credit crunch with banks is still prevalent down here amidst the weathering of the housing bubble storm) there is an abundance of renters.

A corporate suite business I help manage/run still makes about 10-15% profit per lease annually.

The old adage is true about location and it is also true that you don't make money when you sell, you make money when you buy.

Kudos for the rant my friend and trust me, I am certainly not taking anything for granted.

/cheers!

-Q

 

[Jay]

everytime we go to SA and I see that wall to wall carpet of houses on north 281 sprawling over what used to be a rock quarry I wonder what the hell all those people are going to do when the lights go out...

 

[MasterQ]

People will ALWAYS NEED shelter Jay.

So keep an eye on the first "Q's Solar Powered Properties, Inc." to hit San Antonio and spark a nationwide off grid initiative. Muahahahhaaha!



-Q

 

[Jay]

People will ALWAYS NEED shelter Jay.

So keep an eye on the first "Q's Solar Powered Properties, Inc." to hit San Antonio and spark a nationwide off grid initiative. Muahahahhaaha!



-Q

SA "offgrid". Muahahahahaha...

 

[pmbug]

... and spark a nationwide off grid initiative. ...

Sounds like a twist on Timothy Leary's "Turn on, tune in, drop out" in the making...

 

[MasterQ]

Now if I can come up with our water restriction problems....hmmmm

-Q

 

[ancona]

Q,
don't you live in an area where deep wells can access reliable water?