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ancona said:
Q,
don't you live in an area where deep wells can access reliable water?
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A. I don't know what its like where Q is, but I'm ninety miles north of him, over 0 aquifers, and its 280 feet to water if the well doesn't go dry, (as many folks here are). Through granite, I might add.
 
Oh man! That sucks big time. In my neck of the woods, i can hit water with a post hole digger right now. I shot an unregistered and un-permitted well a little while back but it has too much salt to be used for irrigation. Some have suggested that I could employ RO for purposes of drinking water, and to be sure, the well is not capped, simply valved off, so I can access it any time I like. The well has a head of about ten to fifteen gallons a minute, which is not much, but it eliminates any requirement to provide lift with a large pump. Actually, i have a little bitty Teel brand pump that i use to pump the water for washing cars, hosing down the house and things like that, but I try not to get too much of it on the yard because eventually, the salt will accumulate enough to kill all my vegetation off. I have been told that when our aquifer is fully recharged, there should be enough pressure to hold back the salt water, and that i can likely use the well for most of the year, so we're playing the wait-and-see game by pumping a bit now and then to have tested. Sure enough we get pretty wild fluctuation is salt concentrations.
 
Aquifers are funny. At my place I have ~5 springs (varies with season) where water just jumps out of the ground, so pure that when I sent it for testing, they thought I was playing a joke on them. Yet next door - the guy had to sink two wells to hit water, and the one that did got water at 480 feet - though mountain rock - and is contaminated with H2S, iron, sand, and he has to go through quite a bit to make it usable - and this is less than 200 yds from my best spring. Go figure.

Ancona, RO will work, but in most cases there's about 90% waste you have to deal with disposing of, that will now be even more salty, and it's not fast unless you go big and use a lot of power on pumps. For drinking that might be OK, but in your climate I'd be looking at a simple solar distiller, or seeing how good/bad the rainwater is - if it's full of soot from jets and cars and stuff, that filters out well, I'm lucky here - there are about 3-4 weeks a year I can't just use my collected rain for drinking, due to pollen in it. That's why I have a cistern - I can cruise through that time and just reject the crummy stuff. Since my good spring is half a mile from here - and there's a spot I can't bury the pipe (creek/bedrock it's gotta cross), it's so much trouble I do the rainwater - and I'm real happy with how that's working out with a mere 520 sq feet of area to collect it from. It probably rains more where you are than where I am.
 
I am dead center of Burnet County. The geological maps show four aquifers for the county; each aquifer stops right at city(town) limits, yet there are five artesian wells within one block of my house. One of them the city (town) opens from time to time (a 12 inch pvc standpipe) and the water blasts out for days at a time, filling our local parks creek. The neighbors complain about the waste of water, but it actually just drains back into the aquifer. My co-worker drilled a well, had to go 280 feet, and now its going dry. Very fickle.
 
Ancona....you live on a damn peninsula! I would bet you could hit water!

Jay, yeah we are restricted by the damn Edwards Aquifer. That damn thing never really sinks to dangerous levels but our beloved city likes to put fucking mandates on water restrictions as if that really does any impact. All it serves is for an excuse to charge penalties and fines on San Antonians for the city. Fucking bullshit.

I know in Boerne you can drop a well and some parts of Comal county but in good ole SA you are screwed by SAWS! (Bexar County)

-Q
 
MasterQ said:
Holy crap Jay??!

..and you get internet out there!??! :rimshot:

hehe j/k bro..nice countryside there.

-Q
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I hear we're gonna get paved roads soon....

My first marriage, thirty-five years ago, bought land in the country and built a home, well, septic, all that. This marriage, bought a home surrounded by all the different levels of public schools, blah blah. (small town)

now Bing and the eleven year old want to go to the country, and I'm just not getting the enthusiasm I'm supposed to have. A friend has 4 or 5 hundred acres right out side of town and told me he would sell me some, but i just flat don't want to start over.
 
MasterQ said:
(...)I've been in the real estate business for over 20 years.
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bushi:
lol! Nothing like making a fool of myself, advising a pro about his trade.
That being said, I do NOT believe that macro trends in housing have played out to the very end, and I believe there's more downward pressures in the pipeline, than upward pressures - case in point, if it was the other way around, governments would not go out of their ways, to stop housing from collapsing further. I can appreciate a pro can always score a good deal, but if the whole sector is going down, hmm.. I wouldn't refinance my home, to bet on my skills to spot a good deal - might be not enough to be good and have a good deal, if the whole sector is collapsing AGAIN.

MasterQ said:
I was averaging about 10-12% appreciation year over year on my home alone.
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...if it didn't make you run for cover, then nothing will, I guess

MasterQ said:
People will ALWAYS NEED shelter Jay.
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ALWAYS is a very long time, and a very big claim, you know. From what I've heard, shanty towns are growing around in America. Yes people will ALWAYS need a place to live in, question remains, what places they will be able to AFFORD, how many of them will cram in one house/apartment, once they found something, etc...
 
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Bushi, I invite you to SA down here in TX.

I don't know where the neck of the wood you are from or how much of the housing econosphere you have absorbed yourself into but it isn't the same EVERYWHERE in America.

I hear your points and they are very valid but they are not absolute.

Sorry if this sounds a little poignant but I really felt the need to interject some forks in the road you are traveling with your seemingly absolute understanding of how things are in the US for everyone.

If that wasn't your purpose then apologies. It really isn't all that bad brother. There is still plenty of profit to be made and decent areas of growth in the country. Especially for real estate.

I'm not one to give up on it as long as I keep my eye on the ball and my wits about me.

It's tough brother I understand. I am also very thankful for the market here withstanding all that Chase, BOA etc. bullshit. Just makes me sick.

I love seeing Texans helping and taking care of Texans down here.

I'm serious...you should visit!

-Q
 
hey Q,

No worries, just sharing my outlook. I am not even from the US, but I'll shamelessly claim, that I know perhaps an order of magnitude more about US affairs, than average 'Murkan. That's not saying that I know more than a pro, about his specific trade, and specific area . Glad things are going well in Texas, but... if something grows that fast, for that long... Flashing red lights all over my (humble, personal) dashboard. There are no underlying economic fundamentals, for which house prices should ever grow faster than general inflation/wages/population. Why should they - a house is a depreciating consumer good. Yet apparently in your area, they are, which bears all the hallmarks of a speculative bubble - IMHO.

Housing in general is not an investment (contrary to what 'Murkans, and most of the western sphere was convinced to), just as buying a car is not an investment. You can make the case, that people "will always need cars", ergo, they should "invest" in cars, yet nobody seem to claim such an utter nonsense, for various reasons. Logistic companies, they DO invest in cars, and see how completely different it is for them, then average Joe. The thing is, the average Joe is not "investing" in cars (using low interest rates and all kinds of government stimuli), therefore, the prices of the trucks are not being ratcheted up for the truckers, to ridiculous (economically) levels.

Housing might be a good investment for people like you, who really DO invest in it - if you can score a deal that will provide a positive cash flow (including maintenance, depreciation, etc.). The problem, as I see it, is when majority of population is misled, that the house they living in, is/will be their "investment", especially in low interest rates environment -> ergo: all this mob is ratcheting up house prices, year after year -> ergo: the risk of investing in housing increases.

Life is treating me rather well (thanks to all deities there are, and please keep it that way ) on personal/financial level, in my neck of woods - having over 15 years experience as an enterprise software developer, has its monetary benefits, you know . But that little life bonus does not put rose tinted glasses on my nose, nor my personal "all is good, or at least not as bad as some people claim" bias is allowed. I know, that things are getting rather desperate for ever-increasing number of peoples, across the globe. All kinds of blow-offs are to be expected, everywhere, and I mean, everywhere - including Texas, Canada & Australia. Housing, being artificially re-inflated/stimulated and not deflated at all in some places, is in my humble opinion, a prime candidate. Let me use your own argument to support my thesis:

(...)with few being able to afford homes still (the credit crunch with banks is still prevalent down here amidst the weathering of the housing bubble storm) there is an abundance of renters.
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OK, interest rates have started ratcheting up now, haven't they. What does that mean for the affordability of houses. If/when that stuff blows off again, there's a big risk, that even things that look like a good deal today, will be a loosing investment.

My humble opinion only, about general trends and macro risks, and of course, I don't have even the slightest clue, what kind of deals you have on your table, and as we all know, the devil is in the details
 
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Q, Bing cleans house for a couple of realtors here (yes there is still some discretionary spending out there!) and they say they have never seen it this bad. I bought my shack here in Burnet Texas for 29,500 sixteen years ago and this year it is appraised at 89.000. Even my 9 by 33 foot greenhouse is considered living space! All this means to me (since I'm not moving or selling) is that my taxes went from 200 to 1700 a year. I think your best bet nowadays, from what I see in my neighborhood, is to become a section 8 slumlord and rent to crack heads. There is a house four doors down, as far as I can tell there have been no improvements in fifteen years. Always occupied. Bings friend is their caseworker, 4000 a month in food stamps to ten individuals living there. (they have three cars with paper plates in the driveway, though).

edited to add: Bushi, we know how to take care of Texans! /sarc.

edited again to add picture:
 
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The housing bubble never really developed in Texas like it did in California and other states because Texas state laws didn't allow the lax lending standards that were available in other states. When people were flipping houses in California a week or two after they bought them for hefty profits, things were much more stable here in Texas. Our property values (and taxes) were still rising like in the rest of the country, but not as steeply. When the housing market crashed, it really didn't crash that much here in Texas. Where I live, property values didn't really go down at all. They just went sideways (held even) for a few years. Considering inflation, that's a real loss in investment ROI, but the point is that we didn't see the dramatic ups or downs that occurred in other states.

That said, I agree with you Bushi that the Fed and banks have worked hard to keep the mortagage bubble from deflating. The Fed has kept rates down and the banks have been aggressively marketing refinancing and "now is the time to buy with low rates" while holding back on flooding the market with their shadow inventory of foreclosed properties.

I haven't really been paying a lot of attention in the last couple of years, so I don't know what the current status is of the shadow inventory, but if the Fed lets rates rise, I think the housing sector is going to get hit. They (the banks / Fed) have pulled forward an awful lot of demand already.
 
I read a report in the mainstream press today (yup, shame on me ) that UK property prices are rising quite fast in all areas and sectors.

Apparently driven by gov schemes to underwrite loans and the lovely Mark Carney promising that BoE base rate will remain at 0.5% as long as unemployment is over 7% .....


Seriously though, here in UK there seems to be more activity and general business to create the illusion of a recovery and because everyone is buying into it, it would seem to be a recovery, lets face it, its all built on the illusion of confidence.

So what could possibly go wrong ?
 
I think Bushi is spot on with his caveats.

I often tell my mother in law her house isn't an asset though many people are under the illusion. She even had paid off her house about 2 years earlier than she needed to and I about blew my head off my shoulders.

I asked her "Why?" and she simply responded in so many words that she wanted the relief from mortgage payments and the pride of owning her home outright.

When I asked her "So what are you doing with the interest you are saving after paying off the house" to which she responded "I'm spending it" /SUPERFACEPALM!

Oh well...can't convince them all!! haha

As for the section 8 comment from Jay.../sigh

2 of the properties the management company manages have section 8 and NO it isn't all that it is cracked up to be.

I'm not sure how it is there in your county but Bexar are very strict with their damn approvals as if they are moving in some top notch citizens. I say that with sarcasm as 90%+ end up leaving our units completely trashed.

I'd sooner buy a large lot of land and rent it out as a trailer park than get back into bed with section 8.

All in all its about making the right choices, protecting yourself, and paying attention when to get out before it all comes crashing down.

It's tough to be sure but just like PMB said, down here it has been more pleasant than especially California....thankfully!

-Q
 

Q, no reason to "sigh". I was trying to be facetious when I made the section 8 remark, guess I didn't convey my point very well.
 
Nope..just helping your facetiousness hehe yeah..I just said that!

Together I don't think we are wrong in our thinking just the same.

So yeah it does spur my emotions regardless of context haha!

-Q
 
If people were rational about housing they would live in RV's. That way you could drive your house to work and not have to worry about mowing the lawn. Owning a house is not particularly rational, but most of human behavior is not either. I am still trying to figure out why I have a tie rack.
 
Aubuy said:
If people were rational about housing they would live in RV's.
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buahahaha - believe it or not, if not for my wife (and now extended family) - I'd be living in a mobile home, or a converted barge here - must be a testament to my rationality, I guess :rotflmbo:
 

Aubey, if people were rational they wouldn't go to work. I think I read somewhere it only takes ten hours a week to actually support yourself....

sorry, Aubuy
 

We are brainwashed into this kind of (un) thinking from the get go.
The more free thinkers I come across, of all ages, the more I see how they are not buying into the house / ownership / wageslave idea.

Its particularly apparent amongst the festival attending types, who are generally very intelligent and are looking for better ways to live and develop communities.

You might be delighted to learn how positive some of the cutting edge ideas are, whilst generally acknowledging that things cannot continue as they were.

I am more positive for the future now, than I was 3 years ago.
 

I (still) have a houseful of teenagers and pre-teens (depending on who is visiting). Although there is still the ipod/cellphone BS some of the kids are incredibly creative. My 11 year old built a compound bow out of tree limbs and a vine and some household crap and actually shot a bird down (luck, I'm sure) out of the air. The at the time sixteen year old and his friend built a trebuchet and were hurling cinderblocks down the alley. (I was afraid they would hit the neighbors house, but secretly proud). Some of the "youth" is paying attention, and that gives me hope. Some of the kids around here are involved in project appleseed....
http://appleseedinfo.org/search-states-map.php
 
Launching cinder blocks with a trebuchet.....that made me laugh out loud once I formed the image in my head! That's fucking awesome.
 
My oldest son wants to do the Appleseed program. He keeps bugging me about it, but I haven't scheduled it yet.
 
Jay said:
The at the time sixteen year old and his friend built a trebuchet and were hurling cinderblocks down the alley. (I was afraid they would hit the neighbors house, but secretly proud
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hahaha, good auld days... Our lot, as kids, we've build a catapult, using an old door that we've found once (complete with a door frame), couple of bicycle tire's inner tubes, and the door handle was the trigger mechanism, pulled by the piece of string. It took couple of us standing on the door to pull the contraption and lock the door lock, and we were hurling bricks/half bricks over our 4-storey block (VERY thoughtful, I know ). Fun as hell . Not as fun as self-made crossbow, though, man that was some serious shit - I've fired it at the shop door, the first try (being 12-13yrs old, haven't thought twice "what if somebody is standing outside or enters the door"), and being a crap quality plywood skinned door with a honeycomb cardboard filling inside, the arrow went straight through. Oooops!
 
he he

now we are getting down to business


As feckless yoof, we experimented with various launching systems, the steering wheel airbag being the most inspiring and the gas powered spud gun an interesting WMD.

However, living in a different age, we were able to to play with explosives as part of our rite of passage, mostly weedkiller and sugar and a large roll of fast (ish) burning fuse from an old abandoned quarry and occasionally a bag of fertiliser from the farm.

I often wonder how we all survived intact .......
 

http://www.cliffkule.com/2013/08/federal-reserve-buying-130000-homes-per.html

h/t: http://silverunderground.com/2013/08/the-fed-has-purchased-1-43-million-homes-worth-of-mortgages/
 

haha, about 14 years ago (before 9/11, or they would probably still have me locked up) we were putting dry ice in quart bottles of water and throwing it in the parking lot at night when I was night-stocking for the local grocery store. One day they called us to the office (I was probably about forty) and said security just called us and ya'll are throwing some kind of bombs in the parking lot. We don't know what you are doing but stop it. I remember when I was about eight or nine we used to shoot shotgun shells with our BB guns. BANG.
 
Aubuy said:
That is just plain discouraging. Is there anything the government doesn't own? Another reason to buy an RV.
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can't park an rv here except in an approved storage facility or park.
 
RV or home, you are still going to pay rent in one form or another for the land it sits on every night.
 
PMBug said:
RV or home, you are still going to pay rent in one form or another for the land it sits on every night.
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...not if you are gypsy in Ireland - they just park wherever they want, and this becomes their "home" in the eyes of the law, so they cannot be moved without court order. If it is private land, of course owner can tell them they are trespassing, but if it is anything owned by state, or unregistered land - that's it. So I even seen in my time here, caravans parked in the middle of the roundabout

But seriously - I am considering buying some God forbidden plot of land somewhere that I could afford to buy in cash, just for that purpose, and start growing permaculture food forest garden there. It seems that it doesn't require an awful lot of attention, if you don't want to maximize production, only establish the ecosystem. When SHTF, that would be our "bugout" location, so we could relocate there and be sure, there IS a plot of land where we can stay. I'd like very much to see prices of land going down here in Ireland, but it might NOT happen.
 

this is at our local swap shop.:
2004 Trail cruiser

32 Feet bumper pull with 1 super slide, everything works and well maintenance. 1 roof a/c, kept under car port, Sleep 6, bunk beds, couch, and queen size bed and on gravel, new tires and has been inspected

asking for $9,500 FINAL, FIRM AND BOTTOM DOLLAR clear title. CASH OR TRADE FOR ANOTHER BUMPER PULL OR 5TH WHEEL MUST BE SAME YEAR OR NEW YEAR OR NEWER MUST BE LONGER THAN 32 FEET, GOOD CONDITION AND YOU MUST HAVE TITLE.



but its been there awhile, which makes me think if it won't sell, there must be a lot out there cheaper... (I want to get one eventually, cause my friend said we could park it on his 400 acres anytime). This would be our fall-back spot...
 
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