All vault stock quoted in metric tons:
Realistic (absent Indian buying demand)
F Vault Stock = 28,147 (
F Free Float (FF) = 7,281 (
F Liquid (LFF) = 7,281 FF - 3421 illiquid = 3,860
At a spot price of $70/ozt, LFF = ~$8.7B
The LBMA is due to report their end of July silver stock report on August 7. LBMA dinosaurs apparently need 5 business days to figure out their end of the month total vault stock and even with that time, their report is not always consistent with UK silver import/export data. I calculate my own forecast estimate to keep the LBMA honest.
Last month, the LBMA came in 436 metric tons over my upper bound estimate. However, for the first time since January, when we got May UK import/export data, the LBMA report was consistent with the UK customs data.
X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = (28,082) LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = (20,865.66) ETF London vault stock as of July 31
C = (92.85682) COMEX withdrawn for July
D = (0.5147
E = (0.5997
F = (0.8133) Estimated % of UK imports that are NET (accounting for exports) - Avg Oct-Dec & May only (when India was not buying aggressively)
Note: India stopped importing silver in May and the "F" factor for May returned to the ~80% range that we saw back in Oct-Dec of last year. All indications point to India not yet having resumed prior levels of silver importation, so this month I chose to use an F factor that appears to reflect reality when India is not aggressively buying silver from the West.
I did not adjust the LBMA vault stock ("A" factor in the formula) downwards according to the previous months of import discrepancies. If we factored the discrepancies for Feb-Apr, the LBMA vault stock would be ~667 metric tons lower (that represents ~17% of the estimated LFF).
Realistic (absent Indian buying demand)
F Vault Stock = 28,147 (
F Free Float (FF) = 7,281 (
F Liquid (LFF) = 7,281 FF - 3421 illiquid = 3,860
At a spot price of $70/ozt, LFF = ~$8.7B
Big Picture
The LBMA is due to report their end of July silver stock report on August 7. LBMA dinosaurs apparently need 5 business days to figure out their end of the month total vault stock and even with that time, their report is not always consistent with UK silver import/export data. I calculate my own forecast estimate to keep the LBMA honest.
Last month, the LBMA came in 436 metric tons over my upper bound estimate. However, for the first time since January, when we got May UK import/export data, the LBMA report was consistent with the UK customs data.
Formula (Updated Factors through May)
X = LBMA free float vault stock
A = (28,082) LBMA vault stock (previous month)
B = (20,865.66) ETF London vault stock as of July 31
C = (92.85682) COMEX withdrawn for July
D = (0.5147
E = (0.5997
F = (0.8133) Estimated % of UK imports that are NET (accounting for exports) - Avg Oct-Dec & May only (when India was not buying aggressively)
Note: India stopped importing silver in May and the "F" factor for May returned to the ~80% range that we saw back in Oct-Dec of last year. All indications point to India not yet having resumed prior levels of silver importation, so this month I chose to use an F factor that appears to reflect reality when India is not aggressively buying silver from the West.
Commentary
I did not adjust the LBMA vault stock ("A" factor in the formula) downwards according to the previous months of import discrepancies. If we factored the discrepancies for Feb-Apr, the LBMA vault stock would be ~667 metric tons lower (that represents ~17% of the estimated LFF).