Gold Market 260703

Jul 3 Gold Market Morning Snapshot​

MCX Futures $4,198.32
SFE Futures $4,181.07
SGE Spot $4,175.84 ($1.54 LBMA Spot @ 03:30)
LBMA Spot $4,175.88
IBJA Spot $4,158.54 (~$17.34 LBMA Spot)
COMEX Jul26 Futures $4,139.00 ($41.62 LBMA Spot @ last quote)

Quotestaxes/duties

LBMA Spot ​

Yesterday gold opened ~$4,060, popped and closed ~$4,120, popped again over night and sits ~$4,175 this morning.

EFP Spreads (ET)​

Spot price @ 06:48 : $4,175.88

Jul26 = -$41.62 vs +$1.26 Previously (spot @ 20:40 July 2 : $4,180.62)
Aug26 = +$11.92 vs +$14.04
Sep26 = +$25.92 vs +$28.74

EFP Commentary​

Jul26 EFP spread flips hugely negative! That should definitely be sufficient arbitrage profit to encourage shipping COMEX gold to London.

India ​

MCX Aug26 [GOLD 1kg] : $4,828.07 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,198.32)
IBJA PM spot : $4,782.32 (less 15% BCD+AISD = $4,158.54)

China ​

SGE $4,175.84(no VAT)
SFE $4,181.07

SGE premium to LBMA spot = $1.54 (@ 03:30 ET)
SFE premium to SGE = $5.23

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Jul 3 Gold Vaults (ozt)​

GLD9K
COMEX99K

COMEX withdrawals start the month at ~15.2% of Jul26 delivery requests
COMEX 5 DMA run rate 394d (from 551d)

COMEX 7-1​

34K ozt (1.1t) in MT&B

133K ozt (4.1t) from Asahi (101K), HSBC (32K)

moved between [R] and [E]

COMEX Run Rate​

Remaining Vault Stock = 27.5M ozt (14.8M [R], 12.6M [E])

Net withdraw rate through last 5 days = 70K/day (from 50K/day)

Total vault stock run rate = 27.5M / 70K = ~394 (working) days (~19.7 months) (from 551d)

COMEX Jul26​

Jul26 contract cumulative deliveries = 8,741
Jul26 contract equivalent ozt = 874,100
Actual withdrawals in Jul ozt = 133,149.44

Jul withdrawals start the month at ~15.2% of Jul26 delivery requests.

COMEX Commentary​

Wednesday's 99K ozt net withdrawal replaces a 32 ozt net withdrawal in the 5 DMA window so the withdraw rate grew significantly.

GLD Assets​

World Gold Trust Services:1.4M shares
JPM:9K ozt (0.3t)
HSBC:ozt
ozt/shares ratio 0.092170 (from 0.091777)

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Previous report: https://www.pmbug.com/threads/gold-market-260702.9079/