- Messages
- 660
- Reaction score
- 556
- Points
- 268
I would be fine with losing to 'bug at $88
Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.
Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!
I would be fine with losing to 'bug at $88At this rate it'll be the 'bug, easy.
Yeah...these are extra ordinary times for sureI would be fine with losing to 'bug at $88
LBMA spot just broke $79
They already did yesterdayChina will be setting the price of silver soon.
They already did yesterday
The LBMA spot price jumping to $79 was chasing the SGE price which is >$80. China is setting the mark.How so?
The LBMA spot price jumping to $79 was chasing the SGE price which is >$80. China is setting the mark.
They are physicalAre the Shanghai trades resulting in delivery of actual metal or are they paper trades?
They are physical
Eric Yeung said:Proportion of Cash Settlement in SGE Silver Trading
Based on the structure and data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), cash settlement constitutes less than 10% of silver contract settlements, with over 90% resulting in physical delivery. This low cash settlement ratio underscores SGE’s emphasis on physical backing, distinguishing it from more speculative, paper-heavy markets like COMEX. Below, I’ll break down the key factors, rules, and available data supporting this.
1. SGE Silver Contract Types and Settlement Rules
•SGE offers three primary silver products in its Price Matching Market (the main electronic trading venue):
◦Ag99.99 and Ag99.95: Spot physical contracts. These require full pre-trade holdings of physical silver by sellers. Settlement is physical delivery on a T+0 or T+1 basis, with the metal transferred via SGE’s vault network. Cash is exchanged only as payment for the delivered metal—no standalone cash settlement option exists.
◦Ag(T+D): Deferred delivery contract (T+N, where N is up to 3 months). This trades on margin with daily mark-to-market, but positions must ultimately settle via physical delivery unless both parties agree to a cash offset (netting opposing positions). Sellers must ensure deliverable silver in vaults; unbacked positions are prohibited.
•Overall Rule: Per SGE’s Trading Rules and Delivery Rules (as outlined in official documents and market analyses), all trades prioritize physical integrity. Cash settlement is limited to rare cases like mutual offsets or force majeure, but it’s not a default mechanism. This prevents naked shorting and ensures ~90%+ of volume ties to actual metal flow.
2. Quantitative Data on Physical vs. Cash Settlement
•Delivery Ratios: SGE reports show physical deliveries consistently exceed 90% of total contract volume for precious metals, including silver. For instance:
◦In 2023-2024, SGE’s overall precious metals delivery volume was ~4,000-5,000 tonnes annually, representing 92-95% of settled contracts (per exchange annual reports and vault data). Silver-specific figures align closely, with ~1,500-2,000 tonnes delivered yearly against total silver turnover of ~20,000-25,000 tonnes.
◦2025 Year-to-Date (through November): Preliminary data indicates ~93% physical delivery rate for silver, driven by industrial demand (e.g., PV solar paste and electronics). Cash settlements, mainly from intra-day offsets, account for the remaining ~7%.
•Turnover vs. Delivery Metrics:
•Year
•Total Silver Turnover (tonnes)
•Physical Deliveries (tonnes)
•Physical %
•Cash % (Est.)
•2023
•~22,500
•~20,800
•92%
•8%
•2024
•~24,000
•~22,300
•93%
•7%
•2025 (YTD)
•~20,500
•~19,100
•93%
•7%
•Sources: SGE vault inventories and annual summaries; estimates derived from delivery/withdrawal data, as SGE does not publish exact cash breakdowns but emphasizes physical metrics.
•Warehouse Insights: SGE’s three silver vaults hold ~3,000-4,000 tonnes on average. Weekly withdrawals (physical outflows) match ~95% of matched trades, confirming low cash reliance. In contrast, futures exchanges like SHFE (silver futures) see <5% physical delivery due to cash settlement defaults.
3. Why So Little Cash Settlement?
•Regulatory Design: Overseen by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), SGE mandates pre-verified physical reserves for all sales, with margins (15-19% for silver) ensuring delivery feasibility. Cash offsets require exchange approval and are discouraged to maintain price discovery tied to real supply.
•Market Dynamics: China’s silver market is ~70% industrial (e.g., electronics, solar), favoring physical transfers over speculation. High delivery rates rose further in 2024-2025 amid global supply squeezes, with SGE prices often premium to Western benchmarks due to verified physical flows.
He probably thought it was a Leap Year..
Just wondering Know Why? Why the 30th and not the 31st of Dec.? Its not a big deal but ??? ......
.
Holy Shite. AG already over $83 and rising.....WOW
I wasn’t sure when markets were open/closed. As it was, daylight savings occurred after i posted and might have messed up my calc. Just wanted market closed so easy to tell..
Just wondering Know Why? Why the 30th and not the 31st of Dec.? Its not a big deal but ??? ......
.
.I wasn’t sure when markets were open/closed. As it was, daylight savings occurred after i posted and might have messed up my calc. Just wanted market closed so easy to tell.
...
What gives?
That is correct. We are (finally) bearing witness to the scarcity in the physical market starting to overwhelm the paper markets. It's "getting real"
Do the US banks have potential to be pantsed and unable to deliver metal?US based bullion banks went net long recently. I'd say that means they have finally conceded the point.
...
In order of post:
...
Someone_else 75.00
...
chieftan 80.00
...
The amazing thing is everyone that guessed to the top side had a piece of the action during this run even you at 88 when it briefly went above 84.....outstanding run none of the upsiders were out of the running$78.34 at the moment on sdbullion.com with a few hours to go. @chieftain is in the driver's seat.
80 Australian dollars is only 53.63USD$78.34 at the moment on sdbullion.com with a few hours to go. @chieftain is in the driver's seat.
.
But do they close on the New Years eve? I'm not really sure when they will close for New Years. Sorry,..... not trying to be an ass about it but ????
Ok here's what I've found,....... "The stock markets will close early at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on December 31, 2025, in observance of New Year's Day. They will remain closed on January 1, 2026, for the holiday".......
.
Thread OP said, no edits to above.Use Sd Bullion’s listed price for silver 12/30/25 during close of US before Asian would open
.Thread OP said, no edits to above.
His thread, his rules, right?
YesSo are we still going by 12:00 noon AK time TODAY? And if so which/who's chart is going to be the standard bearer? OR are we going by when the markets close tomorrow at 2PM eastern? OR???????????
LOL...........im not going to watch it since i have no dog in this fight ........i am very glad to be out of the running due to being to low.
Right, but,.......and I agree but the markets are NOT going to close today. They wont close until 2pm eastern time TOMORROW 12/31/2025. So I'm guessing Know Why will have to watch SD Bullions chart and announce the price today 12/30/2025 at 12 noon AK time???
.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?