Have your spidey senses ready...

[bushi]

You know how it is, when taxi drivers and shoe-polish boys start talking about it, it is time to get out. So here it goes: I have just received some email from: LinkedIn, addressed to the members of MCSD (Microsoft Certified Solution Developers) group, advertising some kind of whateverhaveyou, no matters, but here's the crux: "enter to win $500 in physical gold or silver"

It is one of the things that make me go "hmmm" - are geeks (MCSDs are typically, Senior Software Developers/Architects, and you have to be rather dedicated to your job/this particular area, to achieve this certification) supposedly sooo ahead of sheeple in investment literacy (with a contrarian twist to boot), that it makes sense to lure them with shiny, OR is it a warning sign of broad market participation (well, where the hell are they, all these PM bugs, then?), or is it just a coincidence?

Anyone concerned himself (apart of the price action, which really haven't bothered me that much, given the background/my current understanding of "ze big picture") - if there is indeed broad participation, central banks are reportedly buyers now, not sellers, yet the price falls and falls sharply time after time - that would mean, that "buy side" is not able to keep the bottom in.

 

[DCFusor]

Keep on keepin' on.

 

[benjamen]

Back in May, I touched on this issue:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f4/gold-silver-bubble-1032/

The vast majority of people I meet invest in stocks or real estate. Precious metals are either considered to be over priced/in a bubble or not even thought about. I see 50 packed "We Buy Gold" stores per one bullion shop.

 

[bushi]

yeah, I mean, it is kind of weird - with CBs net buying instead of selling, seemingly high "organic" demand, and price still goes down, in leaps and bounds.. I mean, I know, paper vs. physical, but it just seemed too weird, all in all... Needed the sanity check .

And no worries, I am not selling, the shit storm brewing on the horizon, is just a matter of time... was just wondering about possible big correction - why buy now, if you smell blood, possibly, in the short term

 

[DCFusor]

DCA'd into a little more yesterday. We'll see.

 

[bushi]

...oh and another thing that feels a bit strange here, I forgot to add in OP: knowing the physical market size is indeed quite small by comparison (especially silver), how come, that the buy side simply don't overcome the "whammers", stripping everything from the market down to the bones, on the down spikes? :shrug:

 

[benjamen]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1228651-bernanke-sets-gold-free-for-now?source=yahoo

"The hedge funds short position on the COMEX is at biblical levels while the bullion banks covered a tremendous number of shorts leaving much weaker hands holding all of those shorts."

 

[DCFusor]

bushi, I don't think Crimex cares whether there's *any* phys behind the paper, so just buying all the pyzz (or nearly all) wouldn't make much difference for a long time, till say, solar panel manuf's need more than the mines produce. It's about rates, not amount. We could get there but...somehow that old line about things being irrational longer than you can stay solvent comes to mind.

 

[swissaustrian]

I'm not so sure about pms beeing mainstream in the US,

Mark Dice does great videos on this:

 

[bushi]

well, maybe I should recognize two things, that I've automatically minced together - where in fact, they are not necessarily equivalent:
1st: Record, or near record demand for physical silver
(...is not necessarily equal to: )
2nd: Broad recognition/broad participation in the market.

I mean, record demand, might be simply the same old lot of "bugs", "tinfoil hats wearers", "conspiracy theorists", preppers, and all other kinds of "crackpots", like our humble selves - doubling down on purchases, BTFD. In which case, I think, there's very little chance that trend will reverse into "sell it all, quickly, before it goes to zero", anytime soon.