Iran

Cigarlover said:

So basically the Straight of Hormuz is open when Iran says it's open.

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FWIW

searcher said:

Note: Just my opinion but if it were me I would have formed a coalition before I attacked. I would have also never have insulted any other country as a prez. Trump did not form a coalition what so ever and the countries he wants help from are countries he's insulted big time and tried to extort with tariffs.

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WOTR commentary.

All for israel, we are suckers....

Goldhedge said:

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By the way, if the oil goes that way, it still has to pass the Houthis militia.....I think they got lots of missiles left.

Just some food for thought, nothing more. As with anything I post, take it fwiw and dyodd.

Trump always does things for a reason... may not be readily apparent, but there is a reason


BREAKING: President Trump warns NATO of a "VERY BAD FUTURE" if they abandon America's plans to open and secure the Strait of Hormuz — FT

Trump could announce a coalition of countries escorting tankers this week.

It's a fact: NATO is NOT NATO without America!

Europe could reportedly assist because they have large numbers of minesweepers — that can counter Iran effectively

NATO SecGen Mark Rutte recently NAILED IT: "If anyone thinks here that the European Union or Europe can defend itself without the US, KEEP ON DREAMING! YOU CAN'T! We can't!"

"Europe — if you REALLY want to go it alone, and those of you who are planning for that, FORGET that you can ever get there with 5% [GDP for defense spending]. It will be 10%! You have to build up your own nuclear capability!"

"That costs billions and billions of euros. You will lose them. In that scenario, you would lose the ultimate guarantor of our freedom, which is the U.S. nuclear umbrella. So, hey, good luck!"

JUST IN: Saudi Arabia is being bombed by Iran, rerouting its entire oil economy through a pipeline to the Red Sea, and its Crown Prince is privately telling President Trump to hit harder. The New York Times reported it. Riyadh has not denied it. And the pipeline is the proof that MBS means every word.

The NYT published on 15th March, citing several US officials, that Mohammed bin Salman has been privately urging Trump throughout the war to “keep hitting the Iranians hard.” The two leaders remain in regular contact. This echoes the Washington Post’s pre-war reporting that MBS made multiple private calls in February advocating strikes before Epic Fury launched. The Crown Prince who publicly maintains neutrality is privately running the most hawkish backchannel in the conflict.

The backchannel has a price. Saudi Arabia intercepted 4 ballistic missiles and 6 drones targeting Riyadh and eastern hydrocarbon facilities on 15 March alone. IRGC attacks have hit Saudi territory repeatedly since 28th February. Patriot and THAAD batteries are catching most of it. But “most” is not “all,” and the eastern oil fields that generate the kingdom’s revenue sit within range of the same Shahed drones that set a fuel tank on fire at Dubai International Airport hours ago.

MBS’s response to being bombed is not de-escalation. It is a pipeline.

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser confirmed the East-West Petroline, running from the Abqaiq processing hub to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, is being pushed to its full 7 million barrel per day capacity. Yanbu loadings have tripled in early March. Bloomberg tracked at least 50 supertankers heading to Yanbu with 25 already loading. Western port exports hit approximately 5.9 million barrels per day in a single week, up from a normal 1.7 million. The pipeline that Saudi Arabia built as a contingency for exactly this scenario is now operating as the kingdom’s primary export route because Hormuz, which carried 19.5 million barrels per day before the war, is running at 0.5 million.

Saudi Arabia did not wait for the war to build its bypass. The pipeline exists because decades of Saudi strategic planning assumed Hormuz could be closed. The assumption proved correct. The pipeline is the insurance policy, and it is paying out in real time at 7 million barrels per day through a Red Sea terminal that the Houthis, Iran’s own proxy, could theoretically threaten from Yemen.

The MBS-Trump alignment is not new. Trump publicly stated he “saved his ass” during the Khashoggi crisis by blocking congressional action. MBS has operated under that debt ever since. The 2026 war is the repayment: American and Israeli strikes degrading Iran’s military, nuclear programme, and proxy networks while Saudi Arabia maintains public neutrality, privately urges escalation, and reroutes its oil through a pipeline that keeps revenue flowing regardless of what happens to the Strait.

Saudi demands are specific: permanent Iranian nuclear and missile rollback, ironclad US security guarantees, and stable high oil prices. Every bomb on an IRGC facility advances the first. Every Patriot that intercepts a Shahed over Riyadh justifies the second. Every barrel through Yanbu at war-premium pricing delivers the third. MBS is not enduring this war. He is profiting from it while someone else pays the military cost.

The Crown Prince who tells Trump to keep hitting hard is the same Crown Prince whose pipeline ensures the kingdom survives the hitting. The public neutrality is the brand. The private backchannel is the policy. And the 7 million barrels per day flowing through Yanbu are the proof that Saudi Arabia planned for this war long before it started.

Full analysis in the link.

Amazing that Trump is trying to get Iran to bomb Saudi Arabia harder just to save israel...Saudi needs better friends...

Fatrat said:

Amazing that Trump is trying to get Iran to bomb Saudi Arabia harder just to save israel...Saudi needs better friends...

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How does he "get" Iran to do that?

Whoever is running Iran right now must be mentally retarded. It was/is stupid of them to be shooting at anything other than US and Israeli targets.

Even they later said they shouldn't have done it.
Ie: the pot shots they took early on against their neighboring Muslim populations.


By shooting at neighboring Muslim populations they severely damage any chance of uniting the Islamic World against the West.
.....and isn't that something they have been wanting for most of the past Century?


They should be trying to look like victims to their Islamic neighbors, as opposed to firing missiles at them.

Live opinion piece by John Konrad. Take this (and anything else I post) fwiw and dyodd.

searcher said:

As allies resist US call to help in Strait of Hormuz, Trump says it was a loyalty test

Trump's calls for help to other countries was a loyalty test, rather than a strategic necessity, he said. "We don't need anybody."

www.navytimes.com

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Stupidity test more like it, we (israel and the usa), start a war and our oil gets blocked, so now we beg others who aren't really involved, to get involved. If you go piss on a large group of bikers, should I really go help you...I mean israel is a nation of welfare rat pedophiles and I should die for them.....seriously.

Viking said:

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STOP NOTICING!!!

I'm surprised it hasn't been pulled down by now.

The time to build a coalition is before you start a war. He knows this though and I think he is just throwing soundbites out there for his supporters.

Hmmm, what if the EU gets sucked into the conflict, makes Iran even more of an enemy, then the US says "okay we'll leave it in your capable hands" and makes a hasty retreat. They then sell arms to EU, Arab states and Israel to keep fighting the war it started...

DYODD here.

Euronews

'NATO is not obliged to help Trump in Iran,' Finnish FM Valtonen tells Euronews​

European NATO allies are rejecting demands by US President Trump to shield the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian disruption. Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen says while it's not NATO's responsibility to help the US, Europe has "very strong" cards if does decide to send a mission to the region.​

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said NATO is not obliged to respond positively to demands by Donald Trump that the alliance help reopen the Strait of Hormuz arguing that NATO's raison d’être is the defence of Europe and the North Atlantic.

Valtonen also stressed that NATO is a "defensive" organisation and will not be drawn into a war of its choosing, in an interview with Euronews's flagship Europe Todayshow.

More:

pmbug said:

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I was just getting ready to post that..

What we suspected all along.

So I checked:

Grok: Who is this guy?

• The post promotes a conspiracy video claiming Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu died from injuries in an Iranian attack, based on flight data showing his plane circling Israel's coast for four hours post-takeoff, interpreted as in-flight medical stabilization.
• The analyst, using public trackers and ChatGPT, alleges European rejections led to negligent care in Berlin, but similar rumors have circulated since early March 2026 without evidence, fueled by geopolitical tensions.
• Netanyahu debunked the claims in videos dated March 15-16, 2026, including one with IDF forces and a Nowruz greeting to Iranians, while fact-checks from Snopes and his office confirm the rumors as false and AI-enhanced misinformation.

The "guy in the video" is an anonymous online analyst (likely a flight data/OSINT enthusiast) who creates detailed video breakdowns using public flight tracking data, ADS-B logs, and tools like ChatGPT. He has posted over 30 videos since the recent Israel-Iran escalation began, claiming high accuracy on various war-related topics. In the specific video shared by @ISephara, he argues that Benjamin Netanyahu died (or was fatally injured) from an Iranian attack. His "evidence" includes:

• Netanyahu's government plane (Wing of Zion / 4X-ICB or similar) taking off but circling Israel's coast for ~4 hours instead of flying directly.
• This interpreted as in-flight medical emergency/stabilization efforts.
• Claims that European countries (including Germany/Berlin) refused landing or proper care, leading to negligence.

The video is part of a wave of conspiracy theories and rumors in mid-March 2026 claiming Netanyahu was killed or severely injured in Iranian strikes. These have been widely debunked:

• Netanyahu has posted multiple recent videos (including one on March 15–16, 2026, at a Jerusalem-area café ordering coffee, greeting IDF troops, and a Nowruz message to Iranians) to prove he's alive.
  
  reuters.com
• Israeli officials, fact-checkers (e.g., Newsweek, Reuters), and his office have dismissed the claims as false, often tied to AI-generated or misinterpreted content (like "six-finger" deepfake accusations).
  
  newsweek.com
• Similar rumors (plane fleeing to Berlin, death in strike, body double/AI videos) have circulated repeatedly without credible evidence.

The poster, @ISephara (iScathulo SePhara), is a South African user from Umlazi, KZN—an International Relations graduate, Operation Dudula supporter, and patriotic South African who shares pro-conspiracy or anti-Israel content. He praised the analyst as "100% accurate" but didn't name him. Some replies asked for his TikTok/Instagram handle; @ISephara responded with an Instagram link in one comment.These videos spread rapidly on X, TikTok, Instagram, etc., but rely on speculation rather than verified facts. Netanyahu remains active and alive per official sources as of March 17, 2026.

pmbug said:

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If America doesn't know Israel is controlling the USA...

They do now!!

Voodoo said:

Oh no, this would be terrible... Darn Bibi gone?

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This rumor seems to be picking up steam... Seeing it more and more.

The moment the US blockades the 1.3-1.6 mbpd flowing to China from Iran, Tehran’s financial lifeline flatlines.

Timing is critical. US and Israel are hunting launch sites, radar arrays, depots, logistics and manufacturing facilities inside Iran to degrade Iran’s retaliatory strike capabilities against Gulf infrastructure to levels below saturation thresholds of air defenses.

Dislocating command from fire units is a core challenge complicated by the IRGC’s decentralized small cell fire units. Cutting off oil exports is likely a deadman switch preset to target critical sites like ports and oil terminals at Jebel Ali and Fujairah and desalination plants across the Gulf.

Roughly speaking that’s the Catch-22 in turning the Gulf denial table: balancing blockade pressure against pre-choke retaliation risk. Once cut off from global supply chains and starved of capital, Iran cannot reconstitute those capabilities easily. But Tehran doesn’t need to preserve a large, coherent retaliatory order of battle. It only needs enough surviving, decentralized strike capacity to impose acute infrastructure risk before the export choke fully bites. Failure to sufficiently strip it of retaliatory strike capabilities could result in widespread damage that leads to macroeconomic shockwaves across theaters.

It stands to reason that MeUs may be tasked to clear littoral sectors in short bursts of intelligence driven raids spearheaded by SOF insertions at Khargh, Qeshm, Abu Musa, the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, Hormuz coastal base sectors at Lengah, Abbas and Jask, and other high value nodes like Chabahar in the Gulf of Oman, and Asaluyeh, Bushehr and Mahshahr north of Hormuz.

Shaping terrain at target nodes to make them permissive for infil, casevac and exfil operations is a core preclearance task. The high profile airstrikes at Khargh and Busher as well as other reported sites fit this operational design.

Sweeping the coastline pushes the enemy landward, increasing both time to saturation snd geographic depth. Iterative clearing may be required to degrade the presence of combatant cells and fire units to preclear for deployment of forward air defense covering the Gulf. Select littorals can be cleared of firing cells, concealed or subterranean stockpiles of mines, underwater and surface uncrewed vehicles, drones and anti-ship cruise missiles. Beachheads can be established for expeditionary advanced bases with C-RAMs and counter-UAS systems to create an integrated naval network of sea-based and land-based sensors, shooters and sustainers. This enhances inland offensive capability and establishes an a2/ad umbrella over Gulf sectors.

It is unlikely that escorts for commercial shipping through Hormuz is a primary need at this stage in operations. This could also be public communication serving as a pretext for positioning additional ISR, site and force protection assets in theater for this next stage of targeted operations.

A central diplomatic variable remains Beijing. If Trump can cut a deal with Xi to replace Iranian oil there may be a concurrent path that entails pressure on the regime through reduced exports, but this is a complex pathway where timelines and verification are challenging in a contested low trust environment and would require a level of coordination that is unlikely to materialize in way that will be assessed reliable.