Is it time to buy Gold now?

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Aubuy

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Gold has now retraced to the blindside forming an hourglass shaped backwardation that is sometimes referred to as a Marilyn Monroe by laymen who get excited when they see it. Many technical analysts believe that whenever Gold hits a price in the $1260-$1270 range that if you buy it you won't be disappointed, unless it goes down more, in which case you should sell it. That is when the range becomes an oven. Forwardbackwardation usually follows and gold could then fall to new lows until a floor forms and the process reverts into a death cross. Once reversion to mean happens the floor becomes a ceiling and the cross is easier to bear. This reversion to mean is sometimes called a mean reversion because it has a bad attitude. I give this advice with a warning that I am often wrong and so you should not invest any money that you would not be willing to spend on lottery tickets or dating. For me I don't do either so I am considering buying some, except for the price. So the answer is maybe. :shrug:
 
I'm quite sure that the Chinese are very happy that physical is still on sale. I expect to see inventories in the GLD/COMEX free falling again.
 
OK, today we saw Gold move into what is commonly know as "the dumbbell" pattern which usually signals that strength is building or else this is a bad time to buy.
 
At this juncture, gold is in the hands of the 'Puppet-master'. The PTB will do as they will to keep gold wherever it is that they wish it to be until they have achieved their ends. The way I see it, we won't see a major up-swing in PM's until we have a hard resolution to the bickering in congress and a friggin budget.
 

The "ALL CLEAR" siren is now blaring from Washington. Everyone can go back to work and resume normal life. For a couple of months. :clap:

This completely unexpected turn of events is putting selling pressure on Gold. This occurs whenever Congress agrees to keep spending money they don't have and the Republicans go along. Analysts call this type of move a "depressurization" and it can lead to dizziness and loss of consciousness, but you have to have a conscience in order to lose it, so Congress will not feel any effect. The rest of us may need medication however to make it through the rest of the year. :flail:

Since this thread is trying to answer the question "is now a good time to buy gold", I am moving my recommendation from "Maybe" to "January".
 
I do not have a doubt in my mind that the debt ceiling will be raised again in february. If I understand you correctly, the price of gold in january might be even lower than the current price due to the "debt ceiling crisis" that once again will occur when we approach february? That will mark the time for buying gold, and once again when an agreement is made the prices will rise again? Is that your prediction and if not, please correct me if I´m wrong.
 

Kashe I am going to guess [since I'm not a professional] and say that when the congressional shenanigans are over we'll see higher prices. Then, when they revisit the debt ceiling and budget crap again, we'll get smashed again.:judge:

That is of course contingent upon no other black swans landing on the bow of our sinking ship.
 
Ok but that seems to go against most of what I´ve read. I mean, during bad times PM prices go up, right? How come the prices go down during this kind of "bad times"? Should not PM prices go up when USA is hours away from defaulting? I know that borrowing money (printing) is good for PM's but isn´t also US defaulting good for PMs?

edit: Hello everyone btw, I´ve been sneaking around for a while and finally decided to join the discussions!
 
My advice- buy physical gold and silver. Buy what you can afford to forget you own.

Thus far- I have not have to break into my stack to pay bills. I have tho bounce check fees when paypal went over on ebay.
 
kashe said:
... I mean, during bad times PM prices go up, right? ...
Click to expand...

Past performance may not be indicative of future results.

Some settling of contents may occur.

kashe said:
... edit: Hello everyone btw, I´ve been sneaking around for a while and finally decided to join the discussions!
Click to expand...

 

Welcome to the discussion! I'm glad you posted because I can't find anything wrong with your analysis and that is really helpful. It seems like bad news for the US should always be good news for Gold. The only wild card is that goofy and playful Comex where paper gold is traded without necessarily any real gold behind it. This seems to cause the market to move in mysterious and really exciting ways when somebody (and you know who you are) decides to dump a few million ounces of gold on the market for no particular reason other than it's fun to see people jump out of windows. I am trying to add this "random" element to my formula so that I can predict when this might happen next and give better advice on whether or not now is a good time to buy gold, or if we should wait for January.

Ok, I am going to go out on a limb right now based on seeing the price of Gold jump up after a deal was reached in Congress and say you should have bought gold yesterday. It appears that even the good news of the US not defaulting today, is actually still bad news because nothing was fixed, so that's good news for gold which means it might be bad news or good news in January.
 
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Im prepared to allow for the explanation of market manipulation by those who stand to gain

Its not just the Fed though, its also those who now hold those short positions that the bullion banks have offloaded.

It would seem like a reasonable explanation that some hedgies would be happy to play this game and with no threat of 'oversight' they are free to try.

Yeah we all hoped that with the bullion banks being long, we would be lifted by them looking to benefit from their new position.

Perhaps they have to learn some new ways of playing, having shown everyone how to push prices down .......
 
I think something historical just happened. The debt limit was increased. This may seem routine, but that was then, and this is now. The rest of the world is starting to sense real weakness. The media has stopped talking about Obama's "red line" that wasn't really a red line in Syria, but it hasn't been forgotten. That was then followed by the government shutdown and debt ceiling increase game (with a clear lack of leadership or compromise), and so we got absolutely no resolution to the underlying problems. We are showing real weakness to the world, and that translates to opportunity, for somebody else.

There are powerful forces getting aligned with each other in an attempt to find a new reserve currency to protect themselves from our financial irresponsibility. This is where gold might have a small supporting role. However, I believe it will only be a minor piece because I don't believe that most countries really want to tie themselves to a gold standard. For one thing you would be ceding power to countries that have gold reserves, as well as to the mining companies that know how to get it out of the ground, so it's not like there is a real good alternative to the US dollar (yet).

But the dollar is getting into deep water. Nobody can predict the future but it seems reasonable to me that having a small life boat made out of something other than US dollars, might be worth considering. Maybe made with at least a small gold anchor so you can hold your place when the waves come rolling in.
 
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OK, I've received a great deal of feedback on whether or not raising the debt ceiling this time around was historic or not. The consensus seems to be that this was not an historic event, and that nothing really new has happened. So I withdraw my earlier post about redlines, and weakness, and forces being aligned to create a new reserve currency because frankly upon reflection, the dollar is completely safe and nobody can touch it. Just watch this and you will feel better too if you were worried. :banana:
 
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Some are saying gold could drop to the 1,000-1,200 $ interval. I'm eyeing that range to buy.
 
Potemkin said:
Some are saying gold could drop to the 1,000-1,200 $ interval. I'm eyeing that range to buy.
Click to expand...

If gold goes to that level it is called a "goldfinger" and it's important to note which finger is being indicated so you will know if it is going to continue down or go "shooting" back up. Here is a brief video showing what can happen:
 
NFP misses and metals jump (a bit).
 
So I should look up and see what "goldfinger" means...
 
Potemkin said:
So I should look up and see what "goldfinger" means...
Click to expand...

Start with "Gert Fröbe". He was the first to understand the role that Gold could play in a diversified portfolio and how the Chinese could manipulate price.


We seem to be experiencing a bit of the Goldfinger phenomena today with the index finger pointing up.
 
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We are now seeing gold break through the psychological barrier of 1350. Why is this is important? Because the Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history, killing an estimated 75 to 200 million people and peaking in Europe in the years 1348–50. So there you go. I would not buy gold between 1348-1350 and would buy pharmaceutical companies instead who should do well regardless of what Obamacare does to the economy. I know this might be confusing and this does not mean I am negative on gold overall. It's just that during major outbreaks of plague it probably won't be as valuable as antibiotics. :rimshot:
 
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Gold has now temporarily crossed the "Plague" line of 1350 which is the good news, but an argument can be made that gold is now rangebound between 1360 and 1260 and therefore should go back down again (absent a black swan which I will discuss in a later post). If you are a speculator instead of an investor, this might be an opportunity to use a strategy know as "the Martin".

 
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Next week there is a possibility we may start seeing more of these in the gold market. Of course I have been wrong before. This can be a bad sign if you own mining stocks, but a good sign if you own physical gold like jewelry.



By the way do not google the term "Naked Shorts" unless you are over 18. This is a word you will hear discussed by technical "experts" but it's really just an inside joke told by dirty old men to offend women and keep them from buying coins and bars, instead of jewelry. Most LCS's prefer to have men hanging around them so they can also talk about guns and ammo, which is probably where the term originated from. Comments like "Wow, she would look good in shorts or naked" was used as a way to make women feel uncomfortable. For some reason it got into the jargon used by speculators, but it really has nothing to do with "Is it Time to Buy Gold Now?" which is the whole point of this discussion. By the way not all LCS's prefer to have men hanging around them and many cater to women where the term takes on a whole new meaning.
 
I am now going to discuss the most frightening aspect of investing in Gold. It is known as the "Black Swan". Black swans are very common. One type of black swan lives in Australia. This is where tons and tons of gold are mined and the birds tend to spook the miners and keep them from producing. When this happens the price of gold goes up. Here is a picture of an Australian Black Swan so you will understand how intimidating they can be. They chase the miners all over the place. You should buy gold before these birds get really irritated and not afterwards.

Also, because Australia is in the southern hemisphere when they have summer, we have winter and vice a versa. This means they are always exactly opposite of everyone else, and from space they are actually standing upside down. So when they are upside down on gold, we are right-side up. $.02
 
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I think we'll see gold and silver stay in a pretty narrow band until the holiday shopping season is well underway. Until retailers get a taste of what the Christmas/Thanksgiving shopping season has in store for them, and until investors start getting that information, folks are still chasing beta in paper. If the season turns in to a bust, which i think it will do, all bets are off. Either way, I can't see metals doing much until after the first of January.

Obamacare promises to bite a great big chunk out of the middle class, so I fully expect a complete retail rout over the next twelve months. I also expect to see real estate roll over and play dead, right along with automotive and durable goods [appliances, et. al.]
 
I've been asked by several of my readers if there are other kinds of black swans that can have an effect on the price of gold. The answer is yes. Here is a picture of another type of black swan found in the Northern Hemisphere. When this happens you do not want to have gold or any other assets in your own name. You want your assets to be in the name of fictitious characters from your favorite book in accounts held in the Cayman Islands, or else you might as well spend it on church bingo (and help the homeless) so you will at least end up living with your new friends. Frankly this kind of black swan event scares me more than the Australian Black Swan because you never know when it can strike, and when it does, it can be hard on your piggy bank. In fact piggy banks could easily be made illegal with the stroke of a pen (or putter). So consider this in your financial planning and whether or not gold is right for you, and make sure you know what your handicap is if you're forced to play against "the swan".



OK, I can tell by the lack of "likes" that this is way too controversial and probably offended swans everywhere. However there is light at the end of this long and tortured explanation about black swans. The end is called the "swan song" and it signifies the all clear signal for Republicans who can finally come out of their bunkers, fix the economy, and blow up a small country. When the black swan starts singing (this is also known as the lame duck quacking for those in the south) it signifies the end of the north american swans 8 year quest for birdies, and the beginning of it's search for millions of dollars in speaking fees, so he can give lectures about the evils of capitalism. Why is this important to gold? Well, because this swan will probably want to be paid in something safe, like Krugerrands, because the dollar will be almost worthless, and that is always good for gold. At least it might be. :clap:
 
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People are moving away from tedious and inconvenient methods of communicating such as talking or writing a letter. Now when people want to communicate with each other they "tweet" it. This is different from texting, sexting, or posting it on Facebook, which is now considered ancient technology for people over 30. Twitter is like forming a small cult of followers (sort of like PMBug for dummies) who hang on your every tweet. You can share your brilliance and feel good about yourself without ever having to answer questions. So what does this have to do with gold?

Today you can finally own a theoretical part of this electronic concept, that produces absolutely nothing, but is completely essential to life as we know it in the universe. You can buy a share of Twitter on the stock exchange for the first time in history and become a part of the financial industry where your money makes somebody else filthy rich. Of course you might get a little richer too someday, or you might not, but it is absolutely certain that a bunch of people (not you) are going to be made into billionaires today. They might even "tweet" about how rich and happy they are, and you can follow them on twitter, and feel good about how you helped them get really rich.

Twitter honchos hit $4 billion jackpot
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101179373

or you could buy a gold coin and not worry about it....
 
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Gold is dropping like a stone today, right before the Chinese announce the results of their Third Plenum and Texas Holdem Competition, where the guy in charge (a guy named Li Keqiang) announces his "vote" on what rules to change regarding economic activity. The leaders hold this vote so Chinese historians can report accurately that democracy is alive and well in China. It's always a wonder to watch democracy work, but this is not something to take lightly because Plenums in the past have resulted in the Chinese doing all kinds of interesting and nutty things like build ghost cities, pollute the crap out of the environment, and eat at McDonald's.

Imagine if this Li guy does something to cause a TEOTBUBBLEAWKI event and suddenly all the Chinese (and there are a bunch of them) decide it might be better to own more gold, and so they take their money out of empty apartment buildings in Mongolia and run to their LCS? (I know you're thinking the government would just take the gold and shoot them), but maybe this would have a positive effect on the price of gold?

Frankly the Chinese are hard to figure out, but there are so many of them even if just a few of them buy a Starbucks latte (or a gold coin) the numbers can get huge. Anyway, this should be interesting for gold and if I were Li I would have trouble sleeping at night, because you would need a lot of bullets to shoot everyone in China if this Plenum thing doesn't go well. :shrug:
 

then no doubt the price of gold will fall further here in the US....:clap:
 
The sentiment I see across the board is one of caution here. Gold and silver may indeed see another pretty powerful slam so that the major shorts can cover and run with what is certain to be a pretty dizzying ride up in the spring. When the economy takes a full face punch as Obamacare kicks in, and when folks see what this monstrosity is going to bleed out of their paychecks each month, spending will stop dead. As spending stops and stocks respond by crashing, the run to safe havens will begin in earnest.
 

Update: OK, I've learned the head guy is actually named Xi Jinping and not Li, but I can't edit older posts so I have to do it in a re-post (above).

The confusion occurred because the Chinese are very secretive and have multiple aliases so they can travel to Las Vegas without the media knowing where they are. In the meantime the 3rd Plenum is not going well and there are stories in the Chinese papers that the fearless leader is going to ask all 1.3 billion people to work harder without getting paid more. The people said they would get back to Xi on that one. The results of the plenum will be announced Tuesday morning so the party leaders can watch Monday Night Football before deciding what to reform. There are rumors that the plenum will issue new rules on hazing. I think this will be bullish for gold in the long run, so I would expect to see the price drop before shooting back up again. The technical analysts call this a "fortune" cookie pattern and the trick is to look inside to see what it is really telling you. Here is what it is telling me:

"Do not mistake temptation for opportunity".
I hope that helps.
 
The Chinese have now announced the results of their Third Plenum Voting and Texas Holdem Competition and it was a complete surprise. The leadership strongly supports capitalism and democracy, just not in China.

This is not great news for gold, but also not totally bad news either. The analysts here at the "Is It Time To Buy Gold Now" research department believe this decision of the Plenum will now cause gold to move into a "yo yo" pattern instead of the "fortune cookie" pattern. This means that gold will likely be rangebound between E flat and C minor for awhile.

 
from the comments in that article:

Rand Paul on Obamacare [Begins @ 5:40]:

“I’m still learning about it. It’s 20,000 pages of regulations. The Bill was 2,000 pages and I didn’t realize this until this week, the whole idea of you losing or getting your insurance cancelled wasn’t in the original Obamacare. It was a regulation WRITTEN BY PRESIDENT OBAMA, three months later. So we had a vote, this is before I got up there. The Republicans had a vote to try to cancel that regulation so you COULDN’T BE CANCELLED, to grandfather everybody in. You know what the vote was? Straight party line. EVERY DEMOCRAT VOTED TO KEEP THE RULE THAT CANCELS YOUR INSURANCE.”

 
rblong2us said:
Pining shows how its never a good time to buy gold -

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5236/its-never-good-time-buy-gold-ever
Click to expand...

rblong2us,
Thank you for posting this excellent analysis on why "it is never a good time to buy gold". I plan to incorporate this information into my own recommendations so that others might make money never owning gold. It's tricky, and it helps if you are a bullion dealer, but I am confident I will find a way to do it, and if people continue reading this thread, they will learn the secret too.
 
Dow hits 16,000. President Obama's address is 1600. A 160-foot blade breaks off a western NY wind turbine. Can this all just be a coincidence?

http://www.wivb.com/news/new-york/a...e-breaks-off-western-ny-wind-turbine_77744151

16 is an important number to numerologist, chartists, and teenaged girls, because there are 16 ounces in a pound of gold. But gold is measured in Troy ounces, and that's where Achilles (Brad Pitt) had a bad day because his mother didn't give him a good enough bath. So in gazing at my Crazy 8 Ball, flipping through a deck of Tarot cards, and trying to forecast the future of my meager retirement plan based on this historical event, I get the strange feeling that something like this is about to happen in the stock market. Call it the Greek version of a Black Swan, and likely where the term "taking a bath" was first invented. Anyway, I recommend everyone put on their kevlar boots and watch for stray arrows.
 
Aubuy said:
Dow hits 16,000. President Obama's address is 1600. A 160-foot blade breaks off a western NY wind turbine. Can this all just be a coincidence?
Click to expand...
Lol, Aubuy, ever heard of "ex post facto" concept in philosophy? I suggest (if you were serious above), that you better get a big dose of that thing
In short, you can always cherry pick some arbitrary numbers, facts, etc., AFTER something has happened, and claim that "there's something going on here, there's CLEARLY some coincidence/relationship/causality". Out of infinite number of "things", one just picks some that seemingly "match" the thesis, ignore the infinite number of those that DON'T MATCH, and hey Presto - we have "facts", supporting the "evidence".

Sorry mate, rational/logical thinking process doesn't work that way
 
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