Markets are going to VOLATILE as hell next week

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swissaustrian

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Markets are going to be VOLATILE as hell next week

Early on next week, a perfect storm for volatility is once again in the making: :wave:

1. On sunday (6-17), Greece elects a new parliament. It's possible that the Communists (Syriza) win a majority and reject the bailout scheme. This would eventually lead to the GrExit. Markets would react with high volatility to this outcome on monday (6-18). But even if the pro-Baioult parties win, there'll be a spike in the Euro, once markets open on sunday evening (6 pm ET), probably dragging pms and stocks (futures) with it.

2. On monday and tuesday (6-18/19) G20 (shadow world economic government) "leaders" meet in Mexico. Depending on the outcome of the election in Greece and market reactions to it, they might announce some emergency measures (e.g. a new scheme involving non-European nations and the IMF, or capital controls of some kind). Regardless of the outcome in Greece they'll be discussing the rapid slowdown of the world economy and will probably publish some pathetic joint statement on their plans for growth. HFT algos will pick this up, creating volatility.

3. On tuesday and wednesday (6-19/20), the FED's FOMC meets. Many observers expect them to launch (or at least hint at) a new round of QE. Regardless of what happens, there'll be volatility on wednesday when they announce their decisions on 2:15 pm. If they don't do anything, markets will likely crash. pms will be espescially hit hard. If they announce a CTRL+P move pms should benefit the most. Tip: watch the front running in pms (and mining shares) BEFORE the announcement.

If you want to trade this information, you can either:

a) go long the VIX: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f9/its-time-go-long-vix-volatility-563/

or

b) start a silver volatility trade with options: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/how-trade-silver-volatility-using-options-343/


:popcorn:
 
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You wonder why the VXX more or less flatlined today. Don't most people know this?
Market went up, but on low volume (looked like to me). All the floor traders I saw on bberg today (including Ken Polcari, who I pay attention to - usually he's right) were saying things like "risk/reward here is too darn high, don't be long over the weekend".

Yet, obviously, no one got out - market went up.
No matter who wins in Greece, I think we can afford to remember that NO politician ever keeps his promises - and that the G20 won't have to do anything whatever right off, and will probably realize that.

I agree the Fed will either announce some QE or not - and that this is about their last chance to before the elections to have it look "non political". I'd guess "or not" given their other spin and Obama's on how well things are going from their POV, but Greece/Spain could be used as an excuse...

Central banks never warn - ZH pointed out that this leak from the G20 was pretty odd in that regard: "Central banks preparing to act in concert" kinda blows that idea.

But I agree. As one of the subjects of the book "trading from your gut" - my gut has extreme willies right now, and I'm down to just gold....I might try and jump on a move that looks real, for a day - but I'm going to wait this one out as plan A.

For that matter, I'll be hosting the Professor Doug Coulter show on Google plus Wednesday night at 6 pm est, so I'm busy cleaning up the lab etc, and don't really have time/attention to be a good trader till that's done anyway. Anybody here with a G+ account, drop on by! Questions that take a lot of typing to answer here are a lot quicker to handle - and clarify - in that medium.
 
DCF, can you give us a link and a final reminder prior to your Wednesday Google show ?

with the time differences, can we watch / listen at a later date ?

.....assuming the internet survives the financial crash on monday :popcorn:
 
Yes, I will. I don't have a link myself yet, this is sponsored by "the hangout show". It will be 6 pm EST my time. So if you go to "hangouts" at the right time, it'll be right up top most likely. I believe we are GMT - 5 hours at this point.

Working up a fun fusor demo, got all the computer stuff done (almost) so I can show the data flowing in from the system...then we'll just turn it loose for questions. If I can hack it, it's going to be a weekly show, something different each week I hope.

It will be recorded and posted on youtube as well, but again, I don't have a link yet, they assign them dynamically. I'd love to have any of you guys there "in person", if you can stand my ugly mug - there's a reason I don't use my real picture most of the time...
 
swissaustrian said:
...
1. On sunday (6-17), Greece elects a new parliament. It's possible that the Communists (Syriza) win a majority and reject the bailout scheme. This would eventually lead to the GrExit. Markets would react with high volatility to this outcome on monday (6-18). But even if the pro-Baioult parties win, there'll be a spike in the Euro, once markets open on sunday evening (6 pm ET), probably dragging pms and stocks (futures) with it.
...
Click to expand...

Greek voters head to the polls this weekend for the second time in little more than a month. For anyone confused by the politics of the birthplace of democracy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists have provided a “cheat sheet” for investors about potential election outcomes and the immediate impact on financial markets ...
Click to expand...

More: http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...E2%80%99-for-greek-election%E2%80%99s-impact/

1. Pro EU government formed; markets flounder on
2. Anti-EU government formed; central banks forced to act; PMs through the roof
3. Anti-EU government formed; central banks don't act; markets implode
 
If the communists win Sunday, expect stockmageddon Monday. hong Kong and Asian markets will tell the tale for Monday. The only real question will be do the US markets surge like crazy with plunging bonds and a crashing Europe as the Eurozone collapses, or does the entire edifice come apart at the seams, with international bank holidays by Friday?
 
Just to be clear. . .
Hell isn't all that volatile.
In fact it isn't volatile at all.
As far as I know, the population only grows (goes up), never goes down.
Volatility is up and down, not just one direction.
 
I was kinda freaked out by the floor traders I can usually trust saying they were getting out, yet the market popped (on low volume). So, were they just this once talking their book? Someone was buying into this weekend. VXX flatlined. I'd bought some earlier intending to hold it till next week for just the reasons SA mentions, but made too much on it too quick - "and too good to be true" almost always is, so I got back out with a tidy profit.

I wonder - there's been a couple times in the last two weeks where we went the other way from Asia/Europe, but of course I'll be watching in case I see a quick trade I can do easy.

I don't think Greece is the real deal here, nothing will happen right away anyway - it's those other larger dominoes that are going to control sentiment, which is all that seems to matter anymore. No one is trading fundamentals at all, it seems. Else Spain (and maybe Italy) wouldn't be able to sell bonds at any price whatever, right?
Seems pretty obvious they can't pay and they're too big to bail, both.
 
Volatility is the fundamental in a market of manipulation.

That is how the manipulators make their profits.
 
the amount of media hype regarding greek elections, here in the UK, suggests to me that -

a) they are trying to frighten everyone everywhere into supporting the euro
b) this is a distraction to keep us from looking at something else
c) Greece is being set up to take the blame
 
I have been watching exit polls and it looks like the Greeks may have chickened out of the Syriza party. If ND and Pasok get back in, expect a Grek revolution shortly thereafter, as the Greek population slowly realize they have sold themselves down the river to the banksters. Either way, they're fucked, only with ND/Pasok government, the raping will be dry and prolonged.
 
I think we should wait a little. This is so close the exit polls aren't good enough, and there's an issue of urban vs rural...I think it's too close to call just yet. And the pre-bickering about who's going to try to coalition with whom is just getting interesting too.

Not that whoever winds up in power won't wind up "seeing the light" after a few phone calls from the real power.
 
EUR/USD spiked .8% so far but pms didn't follow although they had spiked initially right after the opening bell. Smells a bit fishy :doodoo: Stock futures opened higher and held their gains at .5%
 
69mach351 said:
Looks like the pro-bail outs won it by a slim margin. At least that is what CBS is saying.
Click to expand...

A few bizzare things I have observed with this Greek election:

1) With only ~65% of the votes counted, they had already declared the New Democracy party had won by ~3%. How is it mathematically possible for that to be true?
Even a more recent article here:
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_new...arty-wins-greek-election?lite&ocid=ansmsnbc11
Shows one party winning over the other by 3.4% despite 17.5% of the votes yet to be counted?!

2) Why is everyone so excited about this election? The winning party must still scrap together enough Parliament votes to gain a majority. If I remember correctly, this same party won the most votes in the last election and failed to gain a majority, causing this early election to happen.
 
benjamen said:
A few bizzare things I have observed with this Greek election:

1) With only ~65% of the votes counted, they had already declared the New Democracy party had won by ~3%. How is it mathematically possible for that to be true?
Even a more recent article here:
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_new...arty-wins-greek-election?lite&ocid=ansmsnbc11
Shows one party winning over the other by 3.4% despite 17.5% of the votes yet to be counted?!
Click to expand...
It does seem odd, but I am not a person to call foul play until I see it for sure. I am guessing that this will calm the waters a bit and the news will move on to the next crisis, forgetting about this one.


benjamen said:
2) Why is everyone so excited about this election? The winning party must still scrap together enough Parliament votes to gain a majority. If I remember correctly, this same party won the most votes in the last election and failed to gain a majority, causing this early election to happen.
Click to expand...
:shrug: I was interested because it could have been the very start of large(r) problems for the Euro. It looks like the first domino is still standing though.
 
swissaustrian said:
(...)It's possible that the Communists (Syriza) win a majority and reject the bailout scheme. This would eventually lead to the GrExit.
Click to expand...
"Eventually" is a keyword here. Probably not soon, though. #1, even Syriza's politicians are not talking about exiting EZ, quite the opposite, they are talking about staying within EZ and renegotiating bailout terms/austerity measures; #2, greek opinion pols show that greek ppl are not in a rush at all to leave EZ as well; #3, EZ is most certainly not looking forward to disintegrate (grexit would be the beginning of the end) so they will play along with greeks staying in, for as long as possible (and you know, they are "bankrupt" and "exiting EZ", which is the "immediate end of EZ", for how long now?)

My $.02
 
rblong2us said:
(...)
b) this is a distraction to keep us from looking at something else
Click to expand...
...Spain, "too big to bail"?
....Italy, being forced to cover for 20% of Spanish bailout - and to borrow money from open markets at how much, 6%, to lend it then to Spanish banks, at how much, 1%, setting Italy up for even bigger bailout in the future? How about that, for a "ponzi bailouts"? :)

there's plenty of distractions around ;)
 
swissaustrian said:
Early on next week, a perfect storm for volatility is once again in the making: :wave:

1. On sunday (6-17), Greece elects a new parliament. It's possible that the Communists (Syriza) win a majority and reject the bailout scheme. This would eventually lead to the GrExit. Markets would react with high volatility to this outcome on monday (6-18). But even if the pro-Baioult parties win, there'll be a spike in the Euro, once markets open on sunday evening (6 pm ET), probably dragging pms and stocks (futures) with it.

2. On monday and tuesday (6-18/19) G20 (shadow world economic government) "leaders" meet in Mexico. Depending on the outcome of the election in Greece and market reactions to it, they might announce some emergency measures (e.g. a new scheme involving non-European nations and the IMF, or capital controls of some kind). Regardless of the outcome in Greece they'll be discussing the rapid slowdown of the world economy and will probably publish some pathetic joint statement on their plans for growth. HFT algos will pick this up, creating volatility.

3. On tuesday and wednesday (6-19/20), the FED's FOMC meets. Many observers expect them to launch (or at least hint at) a new round of QE. Regardless of what happens, there'll be volatility on wednesday when they announce their decisions on 2:15 pm. If they don't do anything, markets will likely crash. pms will be espescially hit hard. If they announce a CTRL+P move pms should benefit the most. Tip: watch the front running in pms (and mining shares) BEFORE the announcement.

If you want to trade this information, you can either:

a) go long the VIX: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f9/its-time-go-long-vix-volatility-563/

or

b) start a silver volatility trade with options: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/how-trade-silver-volatility-using-options-343/


:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Amusingly, as we approach the close of trading this fine Monday, there has been very flat PM prices thus far.

I am looking forward to Wednesday!
:popcorn:
 
benjamen said:
Amusingly, as we approach the close of trading this fine Monday, there has been very flat PM prices thus far.

I am looking forward to Wednesday!
:popcorn:
Click to expand...

There were some movement within a decent range this morning with PM pricing. Care to take a guess on what Wednesday will look like???
 
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benjamen said:
The PM market still seems to be treading water, waiting for news from tomorrow's FED meeting. However, stocks are taking off just based on better housing data and the assumption that the FED is going to "save the day"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jump-housing-starts-sends-stocks-134225321.html

The FED is also expected to bail out Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/despite-election-helicopter-ben-arrive-pepper-142549618.html
Click to expand...

We can't bail ourselves out, so how in the world can we bail someone else out without making the American Titanic sink faster?

And you watch, after Europe gets its house in order, there is not a snowball's chance in hell that Europe will bail us out. In fact, they will probably tighten the screws and help us sink faster.
 
Obviously people are already selling pms because QE is unlikely to happen today given the recent rally in the stock market. I'm glad I bought some puts on friday.
 
London pm gold fixing price: $1601. And now the party starts. It either rebound or bye bye 1600.
 
69mach351 said:
Looks like all are going down right now. Any guess how long it will last?
Click to expand...
The first FOMC announcement is at 12:30pm ET. That's when the massive volatility will start. 1630 (QE surprise) / 1550 (no QE) are my targets for gold.
 
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Mh gold above 1600 again. Interesting. Major victory for the buy side. Since 9:55am ET gold is -0.88 correlated to the eurostoxx50 index, pretty much the perfect inverse correlation.
 
Ahh, let it fall BIG, I have a cash (!!!) offer on my flat in Poland! I hate strong gold at the moment :-). I currently hold an opinion, that it is a barbaric relic, and everybody should be selling it QUICK!

Wysyłane z mojego GT-I9100 za pomocą Tapatalk 2
 
Looking at the way things are going, I think the trading range till the closing bell is 1610-1580 for gold and 27.5-28.3 for silver. Short of some surprises during uncle Ben's press conference.
 
Overall this is a decent performance by pms given the circumstances... It could have been much worse.
 
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