Paradigm shift in the pm mining industry from growth to profitability

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swissaustrian

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I've spent a few hours researching mining companies today. The current drop in prices presents some bargains, but not as many as one would wish for. However, the big picture is clear: The large miners have finally gotten the message that production growth no matter what is not the appropriate way of creating shareholder value. Bigger projects don't necessarily mean increased profits. As an example for this paradigm shift, watch this webcast by Barrick's (ABX) new CEO:
http://audability.com/AudabilityAdm...364_211201380000AM/primary.aspx?Event_ID=1364

Additionally, it seems that the escaltion of costs has finally forced the miners to come clean and disclose all-in costs/oz (incl. reserve replacements/exploration, administrative expenses etc.) instead of just cash costs/oz. This way we can see all-in costs of $1200+/oz. Additionally, these all-in costs have been growing at high single-digits percentages every year over the last 5 years. These facts alone should debunk the "gold is going to $1000 soon" talk. It also explains why hedging activity in the futures market is at such low levels right now: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f13/open...s-watch-gold-silver-679/index3.html#post19368

It also seems that labor costs in emerging economies have been a major factor in cost inflation, much more than energy! See for example Newmont's recent presentation: http://www.newmont.com/our-investors/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations
Most of the major upcoming projects are located in such countries, however. That's also going to hurt profitability, too. Labor costs in developed countries are relatively stable on the other hand. But there is not much gold to be mined / discovered in such countries.

As Pierre Lassonde of Franco Nevada (FNV) explained recently, ore grades (gold grams per ton) have also been falling rapidly. Thereby the amount of material required to mine 1oz of gold has quintuppled (5x) over the last decade: http://www.gowebcasting.com/events/denver-gold-group/2012/09/10/keynote-address/play/stream/5084

Now what is this going to mean for overall gold supply and prices in the coming years?

1.) Companies will not increase production as much as it is anticipated by analysts. They've already cut exploration and development budgets.
2.) Supply is only going to grow significantly if prices outpace cost inflation. If they don't outpace costs (like during the last two years), physical is going to continue to outperform the majority of the miners. In order to have stable profits at stable production, the average mining company needs rising prices. That's an explosive setup.
3.) Royalty and streaming companies (FNV, RGLD, SAND, TSX.V: GRO, SLW) are going to be the big winners, because they're not experiencing cost inflation. They're all increasing production without the downside of cost inflation that the miners are exposed to. I predict that there will be more royalty companies going public over the next years. For more on their business models, see here:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f14/pm-streaming-companies-slw-business-model-665/
and here:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f14/pm-royalty-stocks-royal-gold-rgld-franco-nevada-fnv-1933/
4.) Gold prices are not going to fall substantially, at least not for an extended period of time. Otherwise the mining industry would experience a number of bankruptcies, followed by a massive drop in supply, followed by an increase in prices.

Final note: the situation for silver is basicly the same.
 
Excellent, excellent piece swissaustrian! I am going to have to re-read it again this afternoon and follow the links.

Your main point makes a LOT of sense, that the "other costs" (the unseen ones) really DO matter. Great food for thought, thanks for posting! Those other costs very much matter re Peruvian gold, for example (see my new post on Cajamarca)

Another point I sort of got indirectly is:

Buy physical now! Soon as I am back, soon as I am back...

:wave:

 
yeah I fully agree: as long as miners are endangered species, the more bullish it is for what has been already dug out of the ground, mid/long term. I was considering widening my horizons and buying into miners (for exactly the reasons given by SA above), but after giving it some thought, I've arrived at the same conclusion: gold mining is a costly and risky business in current circumstances. With costs growing exponentially (and sure to stay the course). So instead of trying to cherry pick the companies, that MIGHT survive in such unfavorable conditions, it is better in my opinion to invest in metal itself, wait till persist difficulties bankrupt few miners. That will lead to tightened supply, and in the consequence, push the prices of metals up - no counterparty risk, direct supply-demand.

I just think, that in any reasonable scenario ahead, it is safer and more directly profitable, to keep investing in metals, rather than companies, with all the headwinds that capital-intensive companies are/wil experience. Unless you are really EXPERT in mining business, and know how to pick the best ones - than mining comps are as low, as they possibly can be...
 
By the time a mine becomes a producer, I mean actually blasting and digging rocks out of the earth, the mining company will have spent tens of millions of dollars navigating a whole maze of regulatory bullshit. In addition, they will have designed an environmental sustainability plan, run off plan [NPDES requirements to control turbidity, sediment, etc. in moving and still water], native species protection survey and maintenance plan, and a million other plans all designed by the NIMBY crowd and the Sierra Club knuckletards who have no stake in the production of metals nor the companies they wish to lord over.

By some estimates, even in more regulation friendly areas, it takes from eight to ten years from resource discovery through to digging a hole and processing ores. 99.9995% of people who own miners do not realize any of this. In fact, most miners shares are backed by little more than "proven reserves" found during test drilling at various sites.

When a mine does actually start moving rock, it is still a crap-shoot, because any one of a thousand things can get you shut down. Think lawsuits friends. The last remaining lead smelter in the United States was shut down last year because of laws created specifically to make it impossible to comply, therefore shutting down the smelter by statute rather than brute force. We have become a nation of special interests rather than a nation of brothers and that makes me sad. With the advent of special interest lobbies, it no longer matters if your group has twenty million members or twenty members, because if enough money is spent and enough pressure is applied, you can write your own laws and have them passed. That my friends is a fact.

Back to mining for a moment. I know a good little bit about many aspects of mining because here in Florida I have done Phase I and Phase II environmental studies at a phosphate mine, a sand and gravel mine and at several rock pits. While I agree that impacts to our environment need to be mitigated to the largest extent possible, I do not agree with the level of impunity with which many of these regulations are enforced andd how they were written. A gravel mine is little more than a hole in the ground that fills with water. Pretty straightforward and pretty simple. To open this "mine" [hole-in-the-ground] it takes about three years of permitting through about eight separate entities in the State. That's right, three years and hundreds of thousands of dollars to dig a fucking hole.

Want to know what will happen in a few years? Most of the mining in the USA will be shut completely down; regulated out of existence. There is a very subtle and quiet movement afoot in the Obama administration to institute a regulatory stranglehold over mining and forestry in this country and they are just getting started. Have a look at how many new and stupid regulations have been promulgated in this area over the last four years. Coal mining? Soon to be a thing of the past. Open pit iron ore extraction? Ibid. Tin, copper and gold mining? They are on the same trajectory. The laws will be passed so as to be retroactive which will effectively knock out all but the biggest and strongest miners. Want to know who owns them? Take a look at their boards and look at their regulatory filings, I think you will not be surprised to see a list of the usual suspects.

If, and this is a big if, we survive the next four years, the damage done may be so great as to be irreparable.
 
The CEO of Newmont was repeatedly invited to the World Economic Forum at Davos. NEM is certainly one of the cronies in the game. So is Barrick (ABX). They've destroyed the mining industry in the late 1990s / early 2000s due their aggressive hedging activities.
 
Fantastic write-up sa. Corroborates a lot of what srsrocco has been saying for a while now. Rising energy and labor costs and diminishing ore grades are pushing the cost of mining and there is no relief for that in sight. New (shallow / easy to mine) high grade ore deposits are not being found at a rate sufficient to counter the trend.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...it-as-paulson-pushes-breakup-commodities.html
 
"... ending gold-price hedges ..."

Does this mean they aren't selling production forward in the futures markets any more? Are they shifting to setting price for current production based upon actual costs to ensure profitability?
 
I think you guys are getting lost in the weeds: everything that is now happening in the PM mining business is practically *screaming* to me that the dollar price of gold hasn't even begun to move yet. In an environment where every central bank in the world is galloping towards hyperinflation, do you really believe it should cost 3/4 of an ounce of gold to dig it out of the ground? AFAIC, the X factor is what will happen in the regulatory environment, but I think we will see an upsurge towards free markets in American politics (because we've been allowing the democrats and the environmental luddites to strangle us for far too long, and what cannot be sustained, will not be sustained).

When the big adjustment comes in the dollar price of gold, all this doomsaying about the PM mining industry is going to fly right out the window. Hedge accordingly (which means, in my view, own physical and look for the best deals on gold equities).
 
http://www.hindecapital.com/blog/me...gold-mining-predicament/#.UW1-wFn-2ZE.twitter
 
Barclays gets it, production costs have grown faster than prices have appreciated over the last 5 years, we are not even technically in a bull market, because miners aren't making money.
via ZH:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/if-gold-was-just-commodity-what-would-be-its-support-price
 

More: http://seekingalpha.com/article/143...-looks-grim-an-opportunity-for-gold-investors
 
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20130614KN_feature.html
 
So it begins, miners are shutting down production:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/golden-minerals-announces-suspension-production-200600987.html
 
And here come the layoffs by the major miners, I expect many more to come:
http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nevada-and-west/barrick-gold-reduce-workforce-55-nevada-utah
 
I don't understand why these companies don't fucking stand up to the market and simply stop delivering product until prices get real. They could get together and have a sort of cartel meeting, set a minimum price and tell the Comex to take a flying fuck at a rolling doughnut. That's how it would work in Anconaland.
 
The major mining companies are part of the problem. Their world gold council does nothing against banks. Some say it`s because they depend on financing from banks.
Here`s what Bix Weir thinks about the WGC:
http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/564.cfm
 
I think it might be a mistake to think of the paper gold market or the mining companies as something corrupt. It is just another "market" where people have come to believe that the paper they are trading has the same value as the underlying metal and therefore the mining of the metal. It doesn't appear to me to be any different than fiat currency where everyone accepts that the paper currency has some kind of underlying value based on what you can buy with it. If people lose confidence in paper currency, the same thing is going to happen to "paper" gold and everybody will scramble for another medium of exchange (bitcoins, silver coins, sea shells, colored glass beads?) and then some company will still make money making money.

In any event values are determined by some combination of belief systems (keeping up with the neighbors, peer pressure, religious convictions) and "real" demand (hey I am thirsty and need some water), and sometimes the two have little to do with each other from a truly objective perspective (like if aliens from space were trying to figure out our economic system and why people prefer bottled water over tap water, or why Diet Coke is more popular the Diet Pepsi. If I were an alien I would think the human race is a little nutty.

So all we can do is try to guess what everybody else is going to do and get there ahead of the mob so we can make money too.
 
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Some of you might begin to think that I am an World Gold Council insider, because I've been talking about the issue of all-in sustaining costs months ago when I started this thread ffftt: (j/k), now the WGC has come out and officially endorsed the concept:

http://www.kitco.com/news/2013-06-27/KitcoNews20130627DeC_updatedwgc.html
 
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