Platinum

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Old, but article that applies to today.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10457240/2/bolling-the-gold-and-platinum-connection.html

"Over my 22 years trading, I have watched the relationship between gold and platinum prices. It is a rare occurrence that platinum, the more precious metal , has traded down to the gold price. It happened in 1987 after the crash. It also happened in 1991 and 1997. But only in 1991 did platinum dip below gold. On all occasions platinum rallied substantially after the parity price. In 1987, platinum went $235 over gold ($635 vs. $400). After a brief week trading parity in 1997, platinum took off and has never looked back, trading a whopping $1165 over gold ($2200 vs. $1035)."

 
For those wondering why platinum and palladium have been jumping up the last few days:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitcone...-johnson-matthey-report-south-african-strike/

"...the platinum market is swinging to a 400,000-ounce supply deficit this year from a 430,000 surplus in 2011 as South African supplies fell to their lowest level since 2001 and volumes from auto-catalyst recycling declined. South Africa provides some three-quarters of the world’s primary platinum output, and the mining sector there has been hit this year by a series of safety stoppages and strikes. The report said palladium is swinging to a supply deficit of 915,000 ounces from a 1.255 million surplus last year."
 
When [not "if"] South Africa nationalizes their mines, oswtensibly to give their "people" a greater share of their sovereign wealth, mining in SA will completely collapse, just like oil production in the niger Delta will soon completely collapse, and as it is currently collapsing in Egypt. When incompetent technocrats get hold of things they have no knowledge of, they will fuck it up every single time. Case and point: Venezuela.
 
Platinum does look bullish as it recently bounced off of its bullish support line at 1540 on this $10 x 3 square reversal ($30 to reverse movements).

The buy signal that occurred on this chart is a #2 Double Top formation. In these #2 formations four vertical columns are required for their completion. The breakout at 1590 (green arrow) takes place after two bottoms have been made at the same level instead of one bottom -as in the #1 Double Top. The first bottom at 1540 was retested and held. Then came the rally for the for the breakout on the Double Top formation.

These patterns (#2 Double Tops & Double Bottoms) usually appear at market bottoms and market tops.
 

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Platinum is now above gold for the first time since last March! Hopefully, I am not the only one who has been enjoying this run up!

:clap:
 
I only have Gold & Silver in my stack was planning to add Platinum and Rhodium next when I have funds.

Saw your platinum thread when I first joined forum last year.
Well done on your spot and for sharing your thoughts. Good call! Enjoy!
 
Yo, Benjamen, happy Pt holder DoChen is happy too. Gold up, platinum up, what's not to like? I saw a comment or two that platinum might be up because of perceived increase in automotive demand (as well as production problems in S Africa).
 
benjamen said:
I would assume the 2 day spike in platinum prices are due to the increasing violence around the South African platinum mines:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-16/lonmin-plunges-as-ceo-hospitalized-strike-cuts-output
Click to expand...

Update on this story:
http://www.chem.info/News/2013/01/International-Video-Shows-South-Africa-Police-Shooting-Miners/

 
Africas mineral mines are being placed under stiff pressure by nationalists who want the government to seize the mines so "the people" can share in the wealth. What they ignore is a long history of expropriation and the accompanying descent in to non-productivity. Look at Venezuelas oil fields and the lack of development, look at Rhodesia/Zimbabwe and their complete lack of investment in the riches beneath their feet. These nationalists have no idea how to mine metals profitably, drill for oil or grow food. They will, in the end, starve under the authoritarian regime that pops up to skim off the cash. People will never learn.
 
http://www.keyc.tv/story/20954413/anglo-american-platinum-says-it-lost-715m-in-2012

"Anglo American Platinum Ltd., the world's largest producer of the metal, announced Monday it suffered an operating loss of $715 million in 2012 as violent labor unrest in South Africa paralyzed its operations for weeks."

"Amplats said it lost production of some 305,600 ounces of platinum during the strikes..."

"In January, Amplats said a nearly yearlong review found that four of its mine shafts needed to be closed and one mine sold because of unprofitable operations."

 
...

Pt and Pd keep going up...

***

Today, my wife wanted me to take her around our city on public transportation. We STILL had never ridden our city's (one line) Metro, they also have a (free!) "People Mover" ringing downtown. Why do I bring this up? Because I saw more CONSTRUCTION than I had before (when driving my eyes are on the road and the train takes you a slightly different routing, so you see other stuff).

Maybe parts of the USA are recovering better than I had thought. If China is getting back into gear and if Benjamen's news re production cutbacks in S. Africa and Russia are substantial, then the price rises of platinum-group metals might be for REAL. With more upside to come?

<--- (that's platinum, not silver)

<--- (this one's palladium, not silver)
 
...

Indeed, Benjamen, both mining problems in S. Sfrica and increased demand are pushing PGM metals up:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...-–-mine-closures-sees-supply-fall-13-year-low

An excerpt:

Platinum supplies have fallen to a 13-year low as mines in South Africa, the world’s biggest producer, close and the platinum industry is in crisis due to industrial unrest, geological constraints and sharply rising costs.

Global production will drop 2.7% to 5.68 million ounces, the least since 2000, according to Barclays Plc, which raised its 2013 shortage estimate sixfold last month after Johannesburg-based Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (AMS) said it plans to idle shafts.

Anglo American Plc’s platinum unit, the largest producer, last month proposed the halt of four mine shafts that would cut about 7% of global production.

At the same time, demand from carmakers, the biggest consumer of the metal, will increase 0.5 percent in 2013, Barclays says.

Perhaps, most importantly investors are buying platinum at the fastest pace in three years and yet holdings of platinum remain very, very small.

Global production of the metal will fall as South African output drops 3.4% to a 12-year low of 4.11 million ounces, Barclays estimates.

“Supplies are very tight and it’s a serious situation,” said Mihir Worah, who manages $110 billion in real return strategy funds at Pacific Investment Management Co., in Newport Beach, California told Bloomberg.
 
I review platinum, palladium, rhodium and gold prices at my blog. Is platinum on the march? Well, by historical standards, not really. It kind of surprised me. Take a look at the pretty charts, and see for yourself!

http://tinyurl.com/au74geq

Any of you who can let me know of long-ago price data, I would appreciate it if you send it, as my examination only goes back five years. If you want attribution, tell me what you would want me to say (especially divulging names, etc.).
 
Zimbabwe trying to invest in the platinum industry and build refineries to boost future output...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...nies-proposals-for-refineries.html?cmpid=yhoo

Mostly gold article that mentions platinum woes in South Africa...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/go...ws-dont-convince-all-2014-01-20?siteid=yhoof2
"Members of South Africa’s Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (AMCU) over the weekend reportedly voted to strike this Thursday at the world’s top platinum producer, Anglo American Platinum Ltd."
 
South African arbitrator rejects criticism from platinum miners' negotiator

In the wake of the last week's failure to resolve the strike which has paralyzed operations at three major South African platinum miners, the country's Commission for Conciliation, Mediation and Arbitration hit back Monday at comments made over the weekend in the local press by the miners' chief negotiator. *****
 
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I wonder why platinum prices are not rising due to this issue?

Because just like DeBeers has a near monopoly on diamonds, "The Cartel" has a monopoly on metals, and so set the price.
 
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