swissaustrian
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Next week is going to be a busy one. Pms are going to be heavily affected by the following events:
1.) The FOMC is meeting once again. Their mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ has telegraphed additional easing, potentially MBS (mortgage back securities) purchases or a lowering/elimination of the interest on excess bank reserves parked at the FED. Maybe they even do something that the Bank of England recently did: Pumping liquidity into banks if they lend it out to consumers (described here: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f4/boe-goes-full-retard-invents-new-high-risk-qe-1136/ )
Hilsenrath signalled that they'd act either now in August or 6 weeks later in mid September at their next meeting. Markets have discounted instant action. This expectation might be disapointed causing a (mini) crash. My expectation is that they'd rather act in September because
a) The stock market needs to crash first.
b) Economic data is probably even worse than.
c) The international annual (informal) summit of the world's central bankers at Jackson Hole is in late August. Remember in 2010 QE2 was announced after that.
The FOMC decisions will be published on 8-1 at 2:15 pm ET.
2.) ECB chairman Mario Draghi (from Italy) has signalled potential sovereign bond buying of the crisis countries, especially Spain, but also Italy. Germany seems not to support that, usually they get their way. Tim Geithner is going to visit Germany's finance minister Schäuble at his vacation retreat on the island of Sylt on monday ( http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/240815-geithner-heading-to-europe ), probably to pressure him to let the ECB do the pruchases. Afterwards he'll fly to Frankfurt to meet Draghi at the ECB headquarters. (Keep in mind: Draghi is a former Goldmanite, so is Tiny Timmah). You see that plot here: The US seems to be very nervous about Europe. Otherwise the US treasury scretary wouldn't fly to Germany to visit the German finance minister during his vacation. :doodoo:
Markets have sharply rallied after the remarks of Mr Draghi. INaction might cause a sharp downmove in EUR/USD, dragging pms with it (at least in USD terms).
The ECB is going to announce their decisions on 8-2 at 7:45 am ET. The press conference at 8:30 am ET could cause additional volatility.
3.) Finally, US non-farm payrolls for July are due on 8-3 at 8:30 am ET. If the FOMC didn't act so far two days earlier, but left the door open for more easing should the labor market deteriorate further (likely scenario), bad data could trigger a QE hopium rally.
I'd suggest getting some
1.) The FOMC is meeting once again. Their mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ has telegraphed additional easing, potentially MBS (mortgage back securities) purchases or a lowering/elimination of the interest on excess bank reserves parked at the FED. Maybe they even do something that the Bank of England recently did: Pumping liquidity into banks if they lend it out to consumers (described here: http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f4/boe-goes-full-retard-invents-new-high-risk-qe-1136/ )
Hilsenrath signalled that they'd act either now in August or 6 weeks later in mid September at their next meeting. Markets have discounted instant action. This expectation might be disapointed causing a (mini) crash. My expectation is that they'd rather act in September because
a) The stock market needs to crash first.
b) Economic data is probably even worse than.
c) The international annual (informal) summit of the world's central bankers at Jackson Hole is in late August. Remember in 2010 QE2 was announced after that.
The FOMC decisions will be published on 8-1 at 2:15 pm ET.
2.) ECB chairman Mario Draghi (from Italy) has signalled potential sovereign bond buying of the crisis countries, especially Spain, but also Italy. Germany seems not to support that, usually they get their way. Tim Geithner is going to visit Germany's finance minister Schäuble at his vacation retreat on the island of Sylt on monday ( http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/economy/240815-geithner-heading-to-europe ), probably to pressure him to let the ECB do the pruchases. Afterwards he'll fly to Frankfurt to meet Draghi at the ECB headquarters. (Keep in mind: Draghi is a former Goldmanite, so is Tiny Timmah). You see that plot here: The US seems to be very nervous about Europe. Otherwise the US treasury scretary wouldn't fly to Germany to visit the German finance minister during his vacation. :doodoo:
Markets have sharply rallied after the remarks of Mr Draghi. INaction might cause a sharp downmove in EUR/USD, dragging pms with it (at least in USD terms).
The ECB is going to announce their decisions on 8-2 at 7:45 am ET. The press conference at 8:30 am ET could cause additional volatility.
3.) Finally, US non-farm payrolls for July are due on 8-3 at 8:30 am ET. If the FOMC didn't act so far two days earlier, but left the door open for more easing should the labor market deteriorate further (likely scenario), bad data could trigger a QE hopium rally.
I'd suggest getting some