Saudi Politics

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http://www.npr.org/2011/10/22/14160...=tw&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

It would appear that the middle east is going to get a bit more dangerous when King Abdullah passes on.
 

http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news/middle-east/the-arab-world/king-abdullah-abdicates-10748
 
The Sauds have long had the problem that most of the people who could be in line for the throne are slightly younger than dirt, so once the current king dies his successor wouldn't be far behind. It would be better to get a younger guy in there who could rule for decades, but I had read there isn't really anyone who the king thinks worthy.

It will be interesting to see if a new guy sticks with the current arrangements or tries to put his own stamp on the country.
 
From what I've been reading, Prince Muqrin is around 70 years old, but the real issue is avoiding a power struggle (fight) within the ruling family (it's a big family). There is a lot of jockeying for power happening over there.
 
So King Abdullah has died. Now we will see if they have a stable succession or a power struggle.

FWIW, when I did consulting work over there a while back, it seemed to me that King Abdullah was really trying to bring that country into the modern age culturally, but he had to do it slowly and carefully.
 
The new king is pretty radical I read. He funded Hezbolla and is a hard core wahabi.

This is about to get truly interesting.
 
* bump *

Big moves happened in Saudi Arabia over the weekend. There was a missile attack purportedly from Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen at the same time the Crown Prince initiated a crackdown on dissent within the royal family.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/amph...di-arabias-crown-prince-is-acting-like-putin/


http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...-yemen-missile-launch-20171105-story,amp.html
 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41881058

The timing is very coincidental. Not sure what is going on over there, but it certainly appears as if wheels are turning.
 
What is going on is nothing short of a complete purge of the old Saudi guard. A lot of old Saudis who are/were American loyalists have been caught and arrested in this "corruption" thing, including the incredibly rich and powerful Alaweed. That guy was a serious Bush loyalist by the way, and it will be interesting to see just how long the royal family sticks together when the smoke clears. The House of Saud is fucking HUGE, and a shake up like this is pretty big news over there, to the point that crude took a mighty leap because of it.

Popcorn is already popping in the microwave.......
 
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My Son was doing an event with Nitro Circus at Riyahd on the night they lobbed a missile at the place.
It actually passed over the arena whilst the event was underway. The arena is about 3 km from the airport. Apparently they waited until it was around 1km out from the airport perimeter then let rip with a wall of lead pouring from guns that track the heat signature of the incoming.
Im kinda glad they waited and didnt bring it down a bit sooner.
Youve got to be pretty cool to delay your response to an incoming missile and be reasonably confident you can still bring it down without too much disruption.

I guess its possible that there were some 'important' people in the audience that security were aware of .....

And this was the first event in the history of modern SA where unaccompanied Women were allowed to attend. Apparently they were loosely grouped together and kept away from the Men.
 

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/1...-launch-act-war-by-iran-vows-retaliation.html

We didn't start the fire
It was always burning since the world's been turning
We didn't start the fire
No we didn't light it but we tried to fight it ...
 
This isn't going to end well at all. This kid just started something that he isn't powerful enough to finish. He'll be assassinated within six months....,tops. To go after that many high powered people, and to do so within your own family all at the same time is bad ju-ju. Had he done them one at a time, and stretched it out over a year or so, maybe he could have pulled it off, but not like this. It stinks of a power grab. Now he has his own army, who are loyal to some of the very folks he locked up, totally pissed off at him. This could be the end of the House of Saud. If the army takes over, we could witness the end of everything we know about the Middle East. We will definitely see war between S.A. and Iran as well, because that's exactly what the army wants. The only thing standing between them is the princes. The army wants these men freed.
 
Emphasis mine:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/1...billion-from-alleged-corrupt-individuals.html

Yeah, you don't steal $800B from oligarchs without repercussions unless you kill them and their families. This isn't likely to end well.
 
Its a pretty high stakes game.
The young Prince will need to have a lot of trust in his team and its entirely possible that within that team are those with another outcome in mind and with a lot of their potential opposition already dealt with.....
 
Like I said, I hope he's living inside a titanium bubble, because there's some big guns trained on his young ass. The Wahhabi's will want him dead for sure, as well as the hard line imams, so this will get interesting in real short order. Wait for the price of oil to shoot through the fookin' roof here. Perhaps it's time to buy the shit out of some May futures? Maybe this is all just a set-up for that very thing? Maybe they all get ultimately exonerated in the long run, but the whole shit show throws oil back up to $120 - $140 a barrel.
 
Thank you for this line of thinking Ancona.
Almost all scenarios imply that there will be less oil hitting the markets in the near future.
I will restock my fuel tanks so I can progress the restoration work on my old mine next year.
 
I can believe that. There's no way for a peaceful transition after the king passes. Too much money is going to be up for grabs.
 
Interesting interview with Prince Alwaleed after his release from the Ritz-Carlton:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...secret-deal-struck-to-exit-ritz-after-83-days

Cliff notes: Reeducation successful

US Senators Sanders and Lee had proposed a resolution to end US backing for the Saudi-led bombing campaign without congressional approval. Senate kills it before a floor vote could be had:

https://news.antiwar.com/2018/03/20/senate-votes-to-kill-bill-challenging-legality-of-yemen-war/


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/03/20...ke-center-stage-during-white-house-visit.html


http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-trump-saudi-prince-meeting-20180320-story,amp.html
 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...arabia-including-more-than-6500-missiles.html

RIP Yemen
 
yeah

threatened from all sides

they must be feeling a bit insecure

and yet ironically the biggest security threat is internal apparently ......
 
Well, Trump appointed John Bolton as National Security Advisor, so pre-emptive war likely won't be too far out in our future. Meanwhile, the Crown Prince's visit to the USA must have been productive because missiles are flying all over the place in the middle east now.
 
Yup, Bolton is a HUGE war hawk. Him (now that he has the position) along with McCain and Graham are three of the most threatening agents against peace that exist outside of the "Unacknowledged".
 
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