India's MCX futures exchange (July 30) update
Silver run rate (SILVER kg contract) = 1.709M ozt (remaining vault stock) / 109K ozt/day (drain rate over the last five days) = ~16 (working) days left (~0.8 month) (
Gold run rate (GOLD kg contract) = 33K ozt (remaining vault stock) / 3.3K ozt/day (drain rate over the last five days) = ~10 (working) days left (~0.5 month) (
Looking back at the withdrawal rate since July 7, it has been above 100K/day nine times out of eighteen, so 50% of the time. While the rate does (and should) fluctuate, this is sufficient to lend some confidence that the current run rate projection is likely going to be close to the mark if there isn't a significant change to the market.
Similarly, the average 5 DMA withdrawal rate for gold since July 15 (when the recent draining started) has been just over 3K/day, so the current run rate projection is likely going to be close to the mark if there isn't a significant change to the market.
The LBMA's premium over the IBJA PM fix (Indian spot price) for gold collapsed this morning to less than $4/ozt (down from $22/ozt yesterday). The IBJA PM fix for silver increased it's premium over LBMA spot slightly (back to just over $4/ozt). It looks to me like we are starting to see the tightness in MCX vault stock being reflected in India's domestic market (IBJA).
Silver run rate (SILVER kg contract) = 1.709M ozt (remaining vault stock) / 109K ozt/day (drain rate over the last five days) = ~16 (working) days left (~0.8 month) (
Gold run rate (GOLD kg contract) = 33K ozt (remaining vault stock) / 3.3K ozt/day (drain rate over the last five days) = ~10 (working) days left (~0.5 month) (
Looking back at the withdrawal rate since July 7, it has been above 100K/day nine times out of eighteen, so 50% of the time. While the rate does (and should) fluctuate, this is sufficient to lend some confidence that the current run rate projection is likely going to be close to the mark if there isn't a significant change to the market.
Similarly, the average 5 DMA withdrawal rate for gold since July 15 (when the recent draining started) has been just over 3K/day, so the current run rate projection is likely going to be close to the mark if there isn't a significant change to the market.
The LBMA's premium over the IBJA PM fix (Indian spot price) for gold collapsed this morning to less than $4/ozt (down from $22/ozt yesterday). The IBJA PM fix for silver increased it's premium over LBMA spot slightly (back to just over $4/ozt). It looks to me like we are starting to see the tightness in MCX vault stock being reflected in India's domestic market (IBJA).
Last edited: