Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

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Update (see post #115 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end February 2025, ... There were also 22,462 tonnes of silver (a 4.5% decrease on previous month)... ETF report for 7 March claims 551.648 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~170.536 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 210.08 mtoz reported at the end of January.
  • COMEX - As of March 6, 420.277 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 317.107 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~256.191 mtoz reported at the end of January.
  • SFE/SGE - As of March 6 (SFE) and February 28 (SGE), 2,826,309 kg or ~90.87 mtoz. This compares to 86.12 mtoz reported at the end of January.

The west has roughly 487.643 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global including China is ~578.513 mtoz ( 26.122 mtoz more than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down ~1,066 tonnes (~34.3 mtoz) from end of January. ETFs lost ~6.343 mtoz.

The COMEX is up ~60.916 mtoz from end of January. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

This month's report had some big changes, but it was less than last month (and less than what I was expecting). My X spirit brother Solve Nettug speculates that the LBMA is fudging their numbers:

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://cmegroup.com/delivery_reports/Silver_stocks.xls
SGE/SFE:
LBMA ETFs:
 
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COMEX import numbers for the month of March so far:



LBMA silver report really doesn't look very credible given what COMEX is devouring.
 
I suspect they are all looting the ETF's now. SLV and PSLV would be highly suspect to have metal flying out the back door.
 




 


1,142 metric tonnes / 10 working days = 114.2 metric tonnes/day * 21 working days in March = 2,398.2 tonnes projected for March.
 
I think you could answer that question by comparing the rates of inflow between Gold and Silver. There should be plenty of Gold physical around to bring it in if someone wants to badly enough.
 
COMEX reported adding ~533 metric tons of silver to the registered + eligible vaults (inflow, not net) last week (ie. in one week). Supposedly, roughly half of COMEX inflows were coming from London per reports in Jan/Feb. I wasn't tracking the inflow since the start of the month, but several folks have been tracking the net and it's been pretty consistent all month, so I think we can safely estimate/extrapolate a total inflow of at least 2,000 metric tons for the month of March (at least half of which, if not more, should be coming from London).

SLV reported adding 425 metric tons of silver in one day. SLV's London vaults are currently reporting a net increase of 622 metric tons since the start of the month. Presumably, 100% of their inflows are ledger changes in LBMA vaults - all of SLV's inflow should be coming from London.

At the beginning of the month, the LBMA's vault report less known ETF holdings showed roughly 5,287 metric tons of silver "free float". A number which doesn't (IMO) make sense in context with COMEX inflows over the previous two months (I suspect it's less in reality). But even if we take their numbers as valid, their free float looks to be taking a serious hit this month.
 
Dave Jensen said:
The Swap Dealers are net short (CME shorts - CME longs) 223M oz. of silver
Click to expand...



 

 
I was out of town last week and unable to do my monthly update on the 7th. I'm doing it now a little bit late...

Update (see post #121 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end March 2025, ... There were also 22,127 tonnes of silver (a 1.5% decrease on previous month)... ETF report for 7 March claims ~562.716 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~148.667 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 170.536 mtoz reported at the end of February.
  • COMEX - As of April 1, 478.458 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 375.288 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~317.107 mtoz reported at the end of February.
  • SFE/SGE - As of April 1 (SFE) and March 28 (SGE), 2,898,156 kg or ~93.18 mtoz. This compares to 90.87 mtoz reported at the end of February.

The west has roughly 523.955 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global including China is ~617.135 mtoz ( 38.622 mtoz more than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down 335 tonnes (~10.8 mtoz) from end of January. ETFs gained ~11.068 mtoz.

The COMEX is up ~58.181 mtoz from end of January. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

If these reports are to be believed, over the last two months, the amount of silver stored in global exchange vaults (LBMA + COMEX + SFE/SGE) has increased 64.744 mtoz ( 2,013.764 metric tons) all while silver is in a structural deficit with global demand exceeding global production. It does not make sense and I suspect that someone (looking at you LBMA) is lying.


Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://harveyorganblog.com/2025/04...-down-xxx-cents-to-xxxx-platinum-is-down-xxx/
SGE/SFE:
LBMA ETFs:
 
Per the latest COT report, swap dealers are net short 29,866 silver contracts or 149,330,000 troy ounces - roughly equivalent to the LBMA's free float per their latest report (if you can believe it).
 
Per the Silver Institute's numbers, the average global silver production across 2024 was ~84.6mtoz per month while the demand was ~97mtoz per month. It's a real head scratcher how the COMEX+LBMA+SFE/SGE supposedly managed to add 64.7mtoz of silver to their vaults across February and March given that the Silver Institute says the demand/supply deficit is larger in 2025.
 
And we already know the Silver Institute numbers are complete Bullshit. They've been caught changing all the past years with each new release.
 



 
So it seems that the EFP and tarriff premiums were a big part of the influx of metal, correct?

Also, StoneX, wasn't that a company that went BK decades ago?
 
Voodoo said:
So it seems that the EFP and tarriff premiums were a big part of the influx of metal, correct?
Click to expand...

That's what it looks like to me. @Peter89 has advocated that this is a false narrative, but in the absence of real evidence, we are all just speculating.

Voodoo said:
Also, StoneX, wasn't that a company that went BK decades ago?
Click to expand...

I'm not familiar with their history. I only learned of their existence recently when they made the claim about the USA importing 2,000 tons of gold in December/January IIRC.
 
If they were actually wanting the solar panels I might agree. Since its just a way to hide their attack on the West, don't think that will matter. Plus, we don't mine much silver so there won't be any tariffs to get it for them.
 

Sorry, but that really didn't clarify anything.
 
Well it did in typical government obfuscation. They answered in truth, there is a high demand. They asked about demand from where and why are they getting priority over the citizens?
 
Update (see post #130 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end April 2025, ... There were also 22,859 tonnes of silver (a 3.3% increase on previous month)... ETF report for 8 May claims ~572.434 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~162.5 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 148.667 mtoz reported at the end of March.
  • COMEX - As of May 1, 500.128 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 396.958 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~375.288 mtoz reported at the end of March.
  • SFE/SGE - As of May 6 (SFE) and April 30 (SGE), 2,600,490 kg or ~83.6 mtoz. This compares to 93.18 mtoz reported at the end of March.

The west has roughly 559.458 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global including China is ~643.058 mtoz ( 25.923 mtoz more than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is up 732 tonnes (~23.5 mtoz) from end of March. ETFs gained ~9.718 mtoz.

The COMEX is up ~21.67 mtoz from end of March. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

If these reports are to be believed, over the last three months, the amount of silver stored in global exchange vaults (LBMA + COMEX + SFE/SGE) has increased 90.667 mtoz ( 2,820 metric tons) all while silver is in a structural deficit with global demand exceeding global production. It does not make sense and I suspect that someone (looking at you LBMA) is lying.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://harveyorganblog.com/2025/05...-platinum-was-down-4-60-to-965-15-whereas-pa/
SGE/SFE:
LBMA ETFs:
 
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So they claim 90 Million troy ounces in 3 months increase... What is the total yearly production? I think around 800 MtOz per year. So 90 *4 = 45% of World mine output over the year. Umm ya....
 

 
You will know when silver reaches a high price when dealers start melting slabbed common date coins.
 
Update (see post #146 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end May 2025, ... There were also 23,367 22,859 tonnes of silver (a 2.2% increase on previous month)... ETF report for 6 June claims ~588.2 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~163 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~162.5 mtoz reported at the end of April.
  • COMEX - As of June 2, 495.395 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.17 mtoz owned by SLV = 392.225 mtoz not owned by SLV. This compares to ~396.958 mtoz reported at the end of April.
  • SFE/SGE - As of June 6 (SFE) and May 27 (SGE), 2,465,480 kg or ~79.27 mtoz. This compares to 83.6 mtoz reported at the end of April.

The west has roughly 555.225 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by ETFs. Total global including China is ~634.495 mtoz ( 8.563 mtoz less than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is up 508 tonnes (~16.3 mtoz) from end of April. ETFs gained ~15.766 mtoz (~490.3 tonnes).

The COMEX is down ~4.733 mtoz from end of April. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

The numbers this month are interesting. After supposedly* increasing global net holdings of silver over the last three months, we finally see a month where global net holdings have decreased though the LBMA still claims a small (~17.7 tonnes) increase for their vaults.

* See: Silver Presents the Magical Metal Mystery

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
COMEX: https://harveyorganblog.com/2025/06...iran-will-not-agree-to-the-usa-terms-and-tha/
SGE/SFE:
LBMA ETFs:
 
All I know is the 10 oz .9999 Canadian bars I bought a few weeks ago for $345 are now $391 and the 10 Buffalo's I bought for $313 are now $399. Luckily I bought 3 and 3 but now I wish I'd bought 10 and 10. Thats almost a $400 profit in my investment in just a few weeks. That doesn't sound like "lag" to me and Im not even counting the bulk of my stack.
 


Silver Market 2025: Supply, Demand & Deficit Projections

Industry analyses, including reports like the World Silver Survey, indicate these can stem from factors such as the maturation of major orebodies, shifting capital investment cycles, the extended timelines required for new mine development, fluctuating operational costs, and evolving regulatory...
www.miningvisuals.com
 
CME COT report was just published. Open interest increased ~20K contracts. Total short contracts now 152,545 representing the sale of 762,725,000 troy ounces (23,723.4 metric tons). The total global free float of vaulted silver in the COMEX + LBMA + SGE/SFE was ~634.495 million troy ounces at the start of the month.
 
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