Silver Demand Drivers (and vault totals)

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more. You can visit the forum page to see the list of forum nodes (categories/rooms) for topics.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!

Texas saw that $350 Million solar field destroyed by hail. That was approx, lets say 130 to 150 mg / cell. Of course they don't define what each cell is but we'll have to assume. They do say that current cell output is ~4.7 Watts. So we can use that number.

www.pv-magazine.com

Amount of silver needed in solar cells to be more than halved by 2028, Silver Institute says

The US-based industry association finds the amount of silver loading may fall from 130 mg per cell in 2016 to approximately 65 mg by 2028. Alternative and cheaper raw materials, such as copper and aluminum, are not expected to replace silver in commercial cell production, at least in the next...
www.pv-magazine.com www.pv-magazine.com

Green Energy Beaten Black And Blue: Video Shows Massive Hail Damage To Texas Solar Farm | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

So 350 MW / 4.7 Watts = about 74.5 million cells x 140 mg/cell = 10,425 grams of silver. So that hail storm destroyed panels with approx 325,000 ounces of silver. About 10 tons of silver. Ok then. I'd take it.
 
Voodoo said:
Texas saw that $350 Million solar field destroyed by hail. That was approx, lets say 130 to 150 mg / cell. Of course they don't define what each cell is but we'll have to assume. They do say that current cell output is ~4.7 Watts. So we can use that number.

www.pv-magazine.com

Amount of silver needed in solar cells to be more than halved by 2028, Silver Institute says

The US-based industry association finds the amount of silver loading may fall from 130 mg per cell in 2016 to approximately 65 mg by 2028. Alternative and cheaper raw materials, such as copper and aluminum, are not expected to replace silver in commercial cell production, at least in the next...
www.pv-magazine.com www.pv-magazine.com

Green Energy Beaten Black And Blue: Video Shows Massive Hail Damage To Texas Solar Farm | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

So 350 MW / 4.7 Watts = about 74.5 million cells x 140 mg/cell = 10,425 grams of silver. So that hail storm destroyed panels with approx 325,000 ounces of silver. About 10 tons of silver. Ok then. I'd take it.
Click to expand...
the question is was the silver effectively destroyed? .....of will it be recovered and fed back into the system
 
Solar panels are not recycled. It's not economical at $25 silver. Not sure where it might but they haven't even developed the process or science as far as I can tell.

Noticed a math problem above. It says 10,425 grams and the math was right but that should be label 10,425 kg of silver.
 
pmbug said:
I went back and revisited Ronan Manley's report (cited in post #9) to compare his numbers against the latest data.
...
Click to expand...

Update:
  • LBMA - As at end March 2024, ... There were also 25,612 tonnes of silver ... SLV report for 11 April claims 334.8 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of 488.6 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 595.87 mtoz reported at the end of January.
  • COMEX - As of April 10, 291 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.1 mtoz owned by SLV = 187.9 mtoz not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~173 mtoz reported at the end of January.
  • SFE/SGE - As of April 11 (roughly - SFE is exact, SGE number is from week of April 1-5), 2,530,760 kg or 81.3 mtoz. This compares to 78.5 mtoz reported at the end of January.

The west has roughly 676.5 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~757.8 mtoz

The LBMA is down ~1000 tonnes (32.15 mtoz) from end of January. SLV lost about 8.7 mtoz.

The COMEX is up 15 mtoz from end of January. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

Edit: fixed calculations using troy ounces and not regular ounces
 
Last edited:
On the heels of 2022’s record use of silver in industrial applications, a new record high was set in 2023 at 654.4 million ounces (Moz). Ongoing structural gains from green economy applications underpinned these advances as they did in 2022. Higher than expected photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions and faster adoption of new-generation solar cells raised global electrical & electronics demand by a substantial 20 percent. At the same time, other green-related applications, including power grid construction and automotive electrification, also contributed to the gains.

Overall, silver demand exceeded silver supply in 2023 for the third consecutive year, resulting in a structural market deficit of 184.3 Moz.
...
Click to expand...

Silver Industrial Demand Rose 11 Percent to Post A New Record in 2023 |

www.silverinstitute.org www.silverinstitute.org
 


I have not checked his work, but Bix says the Silver Institute is fudging numbers.
 
I mean Bix couldn't possibly have thought they'd do anything but Lie, cheat, and Steal. It is nice he is showing us how in our face they do it and no one calls them out.



Those are very Spot on lyrics. Thought we might need the actual song though.

 
GLYDOCaWsAAwcA9

thank you India!
 
... silver is set to benefit from the global 5G rollout for years to come, according to analysts at Heraeus.
...
... , the analysts expect that the increasing demand for 5G technology will continue to support silver demand over the longer term.

“Silver is used in semiconductors, consumer electronics, automobile electronics and infrastructure hardware, which would all benefit from the penetration of a 5G ecosystem, given the necessity of higher-density infrastructure for good signal coverage,” they said. “In 2022, sales of 5G mobile devices marginally surpassed those of their 4G counterparts for the first time, capturing 53% of the market share compared to 4G’s 45%. In 2023, this gap widened further, with 5G device sales climbing to 60%, while 4G devices declined to 40%.”

The rollout of 5G infrastructure in emerging markets also bodes well for silver. “For example, key Indian telecom operators Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are targeting nationwide 5G coverage by 2024, a move that could significantly enhance applications in the world’s second-largest population.”
...
Click to expand...

More:

www.kitco.com

Bond yields weigh on gold prices, 5G rollout supports silver demand – Heraeus

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com www.kitco.com

The article doesn't really say exactly how much demand that equates to. :dontknow:
 
Update (see post #44 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end April 2024, ... There were also 25,470 tonnes of silver ... SLV report for 9 May claims 320.8 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of 498.1 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 488.6 mtoz reported at the end of March.
  • COMEX - As of May 7, 276.2 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.1 mtoz owned by SLV = 173.1 mtoz not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~187.9 mtoz reported at the end of March.
  • SFE/SGE - As of May 10 (SFE) and April 30 (SGE), 2,252,520 kg or 72.4 mtoz. This compares to 81.3 mtoz reported at the end of March.

The west has roughly 671.2 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~743.6 mtoz

The LBMA total vaulted supply is down ~142 tonnes (4.5 mtoz) from end of March. SLV lost about 14 mtoz.

The COMEX is down 14.8 mtoz from end of March. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.
 
Unfortunately if the MIC needs silver they will tell the politicians to make it illegal for the average person to own. For now I hope they get what they need from LBMA.
 
Bix rambles on about solar panel demand for silver for the first 14 minutes:

 
The thing about solar panel demand is that an economic recession/depression is likely to curtail it. So projections about demand are predicated on a functioning economy. That may or may not be a good bet going forward.
 
Update (see post #52 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end May 2024, ... There were also 25,883 tonnes of silver (a 1.6% increase on previous month)... SLV report for 7 June claims 317.9 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~514.2 mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 498.1 mtoz reported at the end of April.
  • COMEX - As of June 5, 296.2 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.1 mtoz owned by SLV = 193.1 mtoz not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~173.1 mtoz reported at the end of April.
  • SFE/SGE - As of June 7 (SFE) and May 31 (SGE), 2,315,442 kg or 74.4 mtoz. This compares to 72.4 mtoz reported at the end of April.

The west has roughly 707.3 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~779.7 mtoz

The LBMA total vaulted supply is up ~413 tonnes (13.2 mtoz) from end of April. SLV lost just under 1 mtoz.

The COMEX is up 20 mtoz from end of April. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
SLV: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf
COMEX:
SGE/SFE:

I'm surprised to see that the vault totals for LBMA and COMEX increased in May.
 


Curiously, SGE vault sees strong inflow of metal while SFE vault continues to drain. The price of silver in China has dropped from $35 to $33 since Friday.
 
A report on solar demand:
Solar is booming in the United States as power demand surges, outpacing the growth of any other electricity source and disproving claims that the energy transition is a failure.
...
Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Google alone represented 40% of the demand for large, utility-scale solar projects in the U.S. over the past five years, according to a May research note from investment bank UBS. Renewable demand from these companies, which are all committed to 100% clean energy, is poised to climb — artificial intelligence requires 10 times more electricity than the typical Google search, according to UBS.

Solar is forecast to make up 58% of new electricity generation installed in the U.S. in 2024, according to an estimate from the Department of Energy. A record 36 gigawatts of solar is scheduled to be added to the grid this year, nearly double last year's increase, while battery storage will more than double to 14.3 gigawatts.

Just 2.5 gigawatts of natural gas, by contrast, is expected to be installed in the U.S. in 2024, coming in at just 4% of the 62.8 gigawatts of total planned power additions and the lowest number in 25 years.
...
Though electric vehicle adoption slowed at the end of 2023, a record 1.2 million car buyers went electric last year, 7.6% of the U.S. vehicle market — up from 5.9% in 2022, according to Kelley Blue Book.

And Big Tech is building out energy intensive data centers to support the artificial intelligence revolution. In 2023, data centers representing three gigawatt hours of electricity were under construction in the top eight U.S. markets, a 46% increase over 2022, according to real estate services firm CBRE.

As these trends collide, electricity demand could surge 20% by 2030 after more than a decade of stagnation, according to an April analysis by Wells Fargo. Data centers are expected to make up 8% of U.S. electricity consumption by the end of the decade — more than double their current share, Goldman Sachs said in April.
...
Click to expand...

More (long):

 
pmbug said:
On the subject of military demand...

Click to expand...


The interesting part of that highlight was entirely glossed over. Something that I did not know. It said they had some internal recycling program that was feeding them all of their silver, At <$4 per ounce. This ran OUT in 2021. Now they have to buy on the open markets.
 
Update (see post #59 for last month):
  • LBMA - As at end June 2024, ... There were also 26,136 tonnes of silver (a 1% increase on previous month)... SLV report for 7 June claims 335.46 mtoz vaulted in London. That leaves a total of ~504 .83 mtoz mtoz of silver in the London vaults not owned by ETFs. This compares to 514.2 mtoz reported at the end of May.
  • COMEX - As of July 1, 298.2 mtoz registered + eligible - 103.1 mtoz owned by SLV = 195.1 mtoz not owned by ETFs. This compares to ~193.1 mtoz reported at the end of May.
  • SFE/SGE - As of July 5 (SFE) and June 28 (SGE), 2,488,014 kg or 79.9 mtoz. This compares to 74.4 mtoz reported at the end of May.

The west has roughly 699.9 mtoz vaulted at LBMA + COMEX not owned by SLV. Total global including China is ~779.83 mtoz (only 0.13 mtoz more than at end of last month).

The LBMA total vaulted supply is up ~253 tonnes (8.1 mtoz) from end of May. SLV gained 17.56 mtoz.

The COMEX is up 2 mtoz from end of May. SLV is about the same for the New York vault.

Sources:
LBMA: https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
SLV: https://emea-markets.jpmorgan.com/metalicsWebAppJanus/publicUnauthenticated/BONY_SLV.pdf
COMEX:
SGE/SFE:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom