Silver Forecast

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GSr is > 58 this morning.

I've got US$ burning a hole in my pocket wanting to go to the lowest priced purveyor of precious metals.
 
I believe if silver drops much more (has gone below $27 as of this post) you'll see premiums go up or supply will suddenly diminish.LCS's will close for vacation & private sellers won't sell unless they need to liquidate to pay bills.
Premiums have already gone up at a few retail sites.Ex: Tulving .50 over for 90%,used to be spot.
JMHO.

GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS!!!
 
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That would not shock me one bit.
 
I wouldn't mind if it went down more, I would really like to pick up an AGE and some silver, but this makes me nervous at the same time....Argh!
 
69mach351 said:
I wouldn't mind if it went down more, I would really like to pick up an AGE and some silver, but this makes me nervous at the same time....Argh!
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We'll probably see PM's go lower,how low,I'd be a liar if I said I knew.
I think it's the ounces you own,what you paid will be forgotten in the long run.If you want a GAE,buy it,you'll be glad you did.
Again,JMHO.


GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS!!!
 
Clive's predictions are no more accurate than anyone elses FWIW. He's had a few few good calls and many bad calls.

Superhero - dollar cost averaging helps mitigate the risk of buying high.

BigJim - If Apmex's inventory of 100ozt silver bars are any indication, I'd say you are "spot" on.
 
I guess that I am still in the "buy and accumulate" phase! I love seeing the price go down so that I can buy more weight... but, I also bought small at near $50/oz right on down through current prices. I think about that once in a while, but whatever.

I just buy more now

ADK
 
BigJim said:
We'll probably see PM's go lower,how low,I'd be a liar if I said I knew.
I think it's the ounces you own,what you paid will be forgotten in the long run.If you want a GAE,buy it,you'll be glad you did.
Again,JMHO.


GOD BLESS OUR TROOPS!!!
Click to expand...

It is tough to average if you only have 1 :flail:
 
PMBug said:
Superhero - dollar cost averaging helps mitigate the risk of buying high.
Click to expand...
Understand the concept, but difficult to practice.

So far I've only purchases from APMEX (cheaper than Kitco and BullionDirect on larger orders). Unfortunately APMEX's tiered premiums and shipping costs would make total cost too high.

If I go local, I've found a dealer with decent premiums, but California charges sales tax on PM transactions < $1,500. 7.75% is a pretty big however you slice it.

SO.... my primary options are buy in $1,500 chunks from local dealer, or 100+ oz. from APMEX. Small purchases just won't happen even though it'd be ideal.
 
Check some other dealers like Provident, Gainesville and Goldmart. You might better deals than Apmex offers.
 

You might also check SilverTowne. I've ordered their trademark "donkey" silver bars a couple of times, always with FREE shipping.
 
Silvertowne's premiums are slightly higher, but the free shipping makes it worth it on small purchases. The other best deal on small amounts is goldmart. 5.95 shipping on orders less than 150.
 
Thanks for the suggestions. Just checked out Provident Metal and Goldmart's FAQs. Put their shipping costs into a handy dandy spreadsheet.

Then I plugged in APMEX, Provident and Goldmart's price for 50 silver maples. With premiums and shipping, the total cost over spot for the three sellers is $4.14, $2.99, $2.45 respectively.

If plugging in their prices for 100 silver maples, with premium and shipping, the total cost over spot for APMEX, Provident and Goldmart would be $3.39, $2.62 and $2.33 respectively.

I understand premiums vary on different products (and the silver maple was on Goldmart's daily special list), but it looks like overall, Goldmart and Provident are cheaper than APMEX. May need to set up accounts over there as well in preparation for purchases in the next few months.
 
Provident an goldmart are the two I look at. Provident has a better selection but is slightly more money. Goldmart has less to choose from, but is cheaper.
 
Here is my best GUESS for the near term.

The ORANGE line is the best GUESS as of now.



It is possible that it will not bounce like I suggest, but instead just slam through to the bottom GREEN line. In that scenario I would expect silver to trend sideways between the two GREEN lines and below the RED line for several months.

In either scenario, silver sooner or later would go down through the bottom GREEN line or above the RED line, the first being very bearish and the second being very bullish.

Even though my gut feeling says it is impossible to drop below the BLUE line, the trend sure seems to point that way.
 
OK, so now I am reading about negative interest rate policy for reserves held by the ECB. That should put to rest any more quibbling about where PM's are headed. As soon as the banksters stop getting paid for all the trillions they borrowed and parked right back with the ECB, and in fact have to start paying for the privelege, we will see some real fireworks.
 
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