May 4 AM Silver Market
LBMA Spot
Last night silver tread water between $75 and $76 before falling to ~$72 and then recovering to ~$73 this morning.
EFP Spreads (ET)
Spot price @ 07:16 : $73.56
May26 = -$0.24 vs -$0.07 Previously (spot @ 06:32 : $73.35)
Jun26 = +$0.13 vs +$0.23
Jul26 = +$0.40 vs +$0.47
EFP Commentary
EFP spreads shift slightly to the negative side. I think -$0.24 should be sufficient incentive to take delivery of May26 silver and ship it to London.
India
MMTC-PAMP (retail) : $84.00 (less 10% taxes = $75.60)
Jun26 [SILVERM 5kg] : $80.95 (less 7.2% taxes = $75.12)
Jul26 [SILVER 30kg] : $79.80
IBJA PM spot : $78.48 (less 5% duty = $74.55)
China
SGE & SFE closed due to holiday until May 8.
General Coments
I would think that India's IBJA spot carries a sufficient premium over LBMA spot to encourage an arb trade that drains the LBMA vault stock (buy LBMA, sell IBJA).
At the same time, May26 EFP Spread at -$0.24 should encourage more COMEX draining (to the LBMA).
I expect COMEX withdrawals to pick up again shortly (and consequently for my run rate estimates to quickly fall sharply).