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40/1I don't know what's worse, gold fever or silver fever? Silver isn't gold though. I like silver, but like gold better. Silver is so heavy, especially if you need to bug out. If silver goes to $100 what do you think the GSR will become?
I've pondered for 20 years whether Izzy Friedman is a figment of Uncle Ted's imagination.He wrote the same article I don't know 20 years ago.
Izzy Friedman is Jim Rickards without a foreskin.I've pondered for 20 years whether Izzy Friedman is a figment of Uncle Ted's imagination.
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While I tried my best to rely on the hard data and offer the most reasonable interpretation of that data, this is very complicated stuff, so it’s understandable that things may not seem as clear to others as they are to me. ...
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I know many think that I may be going overboard in describing what I see ahead for silver, but an objective review of what took place in LME nickel last year would seem to provide ample proof for what could happen in COMEX silver. While the basics in both markets seem identical – a physical shortage, coupled with a massive derivatives position (including extreme concentration on the short side) – there’s even more to be said about the coming COMEX silver emergency.
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He wrote the same article I don't know 20 years ago.
40/1
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There is growing evidence that a physical “run” on silver is already underway in the silver ETFs, led by SLV, the largest, but also in other silver ETFs. This also involves the PSLV, with a withdrawal of 1.7 million ounces. There can be no doubt that silver is leaving the SLV and other silver ETFs. In the prior week, more than 6 million ounces came out of SLV, with this week’s withdrawals topping 7 million ounces in SLV alone, plus more in other silver ETFs. At a time of a fairly strong price rally, it is highly counterintuitive for any silver to be leaving, as strong prices usually lead to deposits in SLV.
The standout, by far, in last week’s silver COT report was the refusal of the big 4 and big 8 commercial shorts to add new short positions and, in fact, their buyback of short positions on what was a sharp silver rally. And with the deepening and obvious physical silver shortage picking up steam every day, there is not the slightest suggestion these big shorts should want to add shorts at a time of the first genuine physical silver shortage in history.
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The Code Red market emergency that I started writing about in July is very much in full force and about to make its presence felt. The prospects of a price explosion are now better than ever, thanks to the unmistakable deepening physical shortage and the likely continued refusal of the 4 and 8 big shorts to add aggressively to short positions. That silver will explode in price in the not-too-distant future looks like a sure thing. Don’t let any last-minute price smashes scare you out of silver positions, as such rigged downdrafts would appear to be the tail-end of a 40-year epic silver price manipulation.
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... silver is now in a deepening physical shortage in which sharply higher prices are both required and inevitable. ...
... It’s clear than the price of silver is artificially suppressed and manipulated and has been for 40 years due to an ongoing and easy-to-prove phony price scheme on the COMEX, the world’s largest precious metals derivatives exchange. The manipulative price scheme involves the never-ending (to this point) fraudulent trading practices of a number of commercial banks consistently cheating another close-knit group of traders classified as managed money traders and as described on these pages and elsewhere for decades.
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But when artificially suppressed prices eventually create an actual physical shortage, the signs of which currently abound in silver, the timeline for the force of the law of supply and demand to overwhelm the phony COMEX pricing scheme is greatly accelerated. No, not to the point where it can be accurately predicted in advance (as much as I try), but with greater certainty that it will come fairly soon.
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I finally started taking delivery.
guess i better start covering my naked shortsI finally started taking delivery.
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We are very bullish silver, meaning we expect the price of silver to move much, much higher, certainly to $50/oz, even though the exact timing of the start of the big silver run remains tough to predict.
The prospects for a rise in the price of silver is rooted in the physical silver market situation combined with the paper silver market conditions.
On the one hand, as said in the past, a silver supply shortage has been developing in recent years. It started a few years ago, and the tipping point was reached approximately a year ago, as per this research. The situation in the physical silver market might get out of hand if industrial demand for silver continues to rise.
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While the physical silver market keeps on deteriorating (it is improving for silver holders and investors obviously), another bullish development is occurring in the paper market.
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... the concentration of the net 4 and net 8 largest traders short determine the degree of upside potential in the price of silver. In other words, if the concentration of the net 4 largest traders short is low, it implies that the price of silver has lots of upside potential before short selling can ‘cap’ the price.
What you can derive from this chart is that the concentration of the net 4 largest traders short is at the lowest level in 10 years. The horizontal grey line, which reflects the current level of the net 4 largest traders short, goes back 10 years in time – only in 2015 and 2023 did we see slightly lower readings. Astute readers will remember what happened in 2016 with the price of silver (hint: it went up some 50%).
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All this leads to one and only one conclusion: the number of bullish catalysts is increasing, and some market participants in the paper silver market may need to hold off increasing their short selling activity. This, in turn, will let the price do what it is supposed to do, i.e. adjust in a way that it reflects the real world supply/demand situation.
A recent development in COMEX silver futures positioning has been unusual enough that I didn’t detect it at first, because it has been somewhat gradual. Over the past five reporting weeks, from the COT report as of Dec 19, 2023 to the most recent report as of January 23, 2024, the number of long traders in the Other Large Reporting Traders category has increased by 29 traders, from 49 to 78 traders – which I believe is both the largest increase and largest number of long traders in this category ever.
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... These 29 “new” traders weren’t really new at all, but rather existing traders which were previously classified in the non-reportable, or “small” trader category, and which had increased their individual holdings sufficiently enough to meet and exceed the threshold for being a large reporting trader.
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Now I know why it got wrecked todayA Big New Development
On the discovery of the sharp increase of 60% in the number of new long traders (29) and the total gross longs of 30 million oz. of silver over the past five reporting weeks: such an occurrence most likely involves collusion.silverseek.com
tl;dr - Bullish! /Ted
This time is different - I swear!I wonder what Butler will have written on his tombstone in regards to silver.
LOL.......he does have impeccable timing ..........we did get a surprisingly good jobs report today that caused the move but still Butler just doesn't have good timingNow I know why it got wrecked today
I wonder what Butler will have written on his tombstone in regards to silver....RIP
We have now reached the point in silver (and gold) where it is difficult for me to see how prices don’t quickly explode. ...
Locked and Loaded
We have now reached the point in silver (and gold) where it is difficult for me to see how prices don’t quickly explode. Everything I look at, from a physical supply/demand perspective to the paper positioning set up on the COMEX, tells me we are at the point where only an upward price surge...silverseek.com
so, basically, no physical gold shortage would be possible.While I do admit that gold’s actual supply/demand fundamentals are tighter than I’ve seen previously, that’s a far cry from being in a deepening physical shortage brought about by industrial consumption overwhelming current physical supply, as is the case in silver. Simply put, gold is not an industrial commodity, while silver is. Only an industrial or consumable commodity can find itself in a genuine physical shortage.
He misses completely gold and silver as currencies.One thing that does definitely unite gold and silver is that both are primary investment assets, in fact, gold is a pure investment asset. Silver, of course, is both an investment asset plus an industrial commodity – the only true commodity with such a dual demand profile
First time I hear of this double-counting allegationAnother of the differences between silver and gold is that I’m not aware of any behind-the-scenes potential regulatory controversies in gold, where I know some to exist in silver, not the least of which is the question of possible double-counting in recorded silver bullion inventories. Yes, I do believe gold bullion inventories have been shifting from West to East (same as in silver), but I am unaware of any allegations of double-counting in gold inventories. We are now past the 14-week mark since I wrote to the CFTC and S.E.C. on the matter of possible double-counting in the silver inventories held in SLV and in the COMEX warehouses. The S.E.C. responded in two weeks (to my congressman), although it avoided any acknowledgement as to whether there was double-counting or not. But the CFTC has avoided any response. In a follow up with my congressman’s office yesterday, I was told that they did hear from the CFTC and that the agency was “working on a response”. Hello – working on? The question is as simple as it gets – the recorded silver inventories in question are separate or there is double-counting, so there is nothing to “work on”.
To that end Ted Butler seems to have vanished. Anyone seen him or have some info?
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