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In late December 2025, forces backed by the United Arab Emirates swept across six governorates in southern Yemen and seized oil-rich provinces along Saudi Arabia’s border. Within days, Saudi airstrikes and Saudi-backed troops erased their gains. The Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council’s territory in Yemen was reduced to practically nothing. It then quietly declared its dissolution.
This drama marked the first direct military confrontation between forces backed by the two Gulf states whose cooperation has shaped the regional security architecture for over a decade. It signifies not merely a tactical disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on an isolated issue, but an unfolding strategic divergence with possible far-reaching consequences. An understanding of this divergence is imperative for U.S. and European policymakers because the Gulf remains vital to global energy markets, maritime corridors, and multilateral security frameworks.
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This drama marked the first direct military confrontation between forces backed by the two Gulf states whose cooperation has shaped the regional security architecture for over a decade. It signifies not merely a tactical disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates on an isolated issue, but an unfolding strategic divergence with possible far-reaching consequences. An understanding of this divergence is imperative for U.S. and European policymakers because the Gulf remains vital to global energy markets, maritime corridors, and multilateral security frameworks.
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Risk, Order, and Power: The Saudi-Emirati Divergence
In late December 2025, forces backed by the United Arab Emirates swept across six governorates in southern Yemen and seized oil-rich provinces along Saudi
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