None of these examples are from countries that printed the world's reserve currency like the US (currently, but less credibly all the time) does. That only makes ALL THE DIFFERENCE.
We are in fact losing reserve currency status, bit by bit (see recent deals by China and Russia with various other countries). When that happens, these examples become relevant. Till then "this time is different". If we really lose reserve status in a snowball, instead of bit by bit (probably at some point) then we're Weimar, and it's not a matter of years, when all those benny bucks flow home uncontrollably and all at once, since other banks no longer need to maintain a balance of our bucks to do commerce. That could happen practically overnight - the only issue is which night.
I hate to say "it's different this time" - but it
is different - for the moment.
In other news, my dumb trading system - buy when gold crosses above a rising 50 sma, slap on a stop and fuggedaboutit, was
just almost triggered. But instead, this time it rose above a falling 50 sma. In the past (look at Dec, Jan, Feb on a year chart - when it rose above the falling 50, even if it was just barely falling, it went right back down again, sometimes hard, and the 50 became resistance. I use this chart for it, since everyone computes the SMA a little differently...
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=&a=&w=&v=d12
We're not there yet - and this system has worked great for 10 years so far at least (as far back as I have the data). No, you don't get the exact bottom, which is likely in due to mining costs etc, and you lose a little going over the top (the % of your trailing stop), but it makes good money if you follow it with discipline. And it says "don't buy now" right now - but it's looking better. This spike might cause the 50 to start an upslope if it holds a couple days, and if it crosses that again - and stays there for a day or few - time to buy. Not now.
This of course is for paper, and despite some slight disconnect with phys, it's not a serious disconnect
yet. If that happens, this system is worthy of the trashcan of history, frankly. But as long as the markets track fairly closely, it works quite well, and I put my money where my mouth is here - for paper. For silver, I don't really have a "foolproof" system like this - too much beta for it to work very well.
For phys, well, we buy that for other reasons than trading - and hold till we need it, regardless of current pricing, and it's a whole different story. I buy some, a little at a time, more or less trying to time DCA'ing, but never get in so deep as to have to redeem any phys in the reasonably foreseeable future, eg most of my resources are in other things, including other hard assets (like the farmstead, electric cars, solar power). And soft - my trading stake stays in fiat, and FWIW, it's 90% "out of the market" right now, I'm taking a break from trading at the moment - I don't see any juicy setups, everything is overbought, but not to the point where it's looking like I make quick money shorting either -
Like a famous trader once said, one of the most important skills you can have is the ability to NOT trade when there's nothing worth trading. I feel like that time is now. Sure, we'll probably have one more run-up to a blow-off - I'll just wait for that, then go short unless my worldview totally changes for some reason.
I keep watching anyway - trading is a perishable skill I don't want to lose. I just can't get a good feel for the tape right now, so I'm not acting on judgements I don't feel confident in making. I think "the herd" has gone nuts picking up pennies in front of a steam roller so close they're gonna get squished, and I feel sorry for those who have a mandate to be "in" all the time, frankly.