Iran

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The potential escalation to overt conflict between Israel and Iran is what has been driving oil higher recently.
 

Royal Marines preparing to lead 'Dunkirk-style' evacuation of Britons living in the Middle East should Iran launch missile attacks on Israel after consul blast that killed 13 people​

Royal Marines are poised to lead a ‘Dunkirk-style’ evacuation of thousands of UK nationals from the Middle East should Iran launch a missile strike on Israel.

Commandos have already conducted reconnaissance along the Lebanese coastline ahead of a potential maritime rescue mission.

Tonight, speaking exclusively to the Mail, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps confirmed he ‘stands ready’ to assist any Britons trapped in the region.

The Foreign Office has already advised all UK citizens to leave Lebanon.

Tonight US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said there remained a ‘serious threat’ of attack while it was reported that Iran had sent a message to Washington warning them against the involvement of US troops in the region.

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Just came out - Iran has launched drone attacks against Israel (confirmed by IDF via cable news.) I'm thinking things are gonna heat up.
 
Cryptos never stop trading. They reacted strong to the downside on the news. Expect stocks to follow on Monday, Not sure how gold will react...
 
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If Iran blocks shipping through the Strait, it's really going to mess with the oil trade.
 

Report to Congress on Iran and U.S. Policy​

The following is the April 22, 2024, Congressional Research Service report, Iran: Background and U.S. Policy.

From the report​

Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been largely antagonistic since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, with tensions spiking again since 2023. Of particular concern for U.S. policymakers in 2024 are Iran’s regional activities and those of its partners in light of the October 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel; ongoing attacks against U.S. forces and additional targets in the region by other Iran-backed groups such as the Houthis; and the first-ever direct Iranian military attack against Israel in April 2024. The Iranian government’s human rights violations, its nuclear program, and its increasingly close relationships with Russia and China also pose challenges for the United States. Congress has played a major role in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran, including by authorizing extensive U.S. sanctions, seeking to influence diplomatic engagement with Iran, and funding support to U.S. partners facing Iranian threats. Selected issues on which Congress has engaged include:

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Houthi Drone Attack on Bulker Cyclades | Attacks on Ships in the Indian Ocean​

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Who is still worried about a gold/silver slam when markets open tomorrow?
 

Iran's hardliner President Ebrahim Raisi killed in helicopter crash​

DUBAI (Reuters) -Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash in mountainous terrain near the Azerbaijan border, officials and state media said on Monday.

The charred wreckage of the helicopter which crashed on Sunday carrying Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and six other passengers and crew was found early on Monday after an overnight search in blizzard conditions.

"President Raisi, the foreign minister and all the passengers in the helicopter were killed in the crash," a senior Iranian official told Reuters, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter.

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Iran President Ebrahim Raisi killed in helicopter crash - Live Updates​

What do we know so far?​

  • Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed after a helicopter crash on Sunday
  • He was a potential successor to the Supreme Leader
  • Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian also died
  • There was no official word on the cause
  • Five days of national mourning was declared
  • Elections must be held in 50 days
  • Here are reactions to Raisi's death
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I posted the most "just the facts" tweet of the event that I saw yesterday. Of course, there were rampant speculations and outright claims that the helicopter had been shot down from a car convoy with the usual insinuations that Israel or the USA were responsible. If any of that were true, I expect Iran would be saying something officially.
 
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