New Year Predictions, post here

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ancona

ancona

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OK all of you PM mavens, now is the time to preognosticate the direction of PM's for the up-coming new year. What does 2012 bring? Will we see a major geopolitical paradigm shift? Do PM's finally go parabolic? Does the LME and Comex criminal scam finally get overwhelmed by redemption requests? Does Nobama stage a miracle win in November? Do msores finally find their rightful place atop the food pyramid?

Post your prescience here. :wave:
 
Back in late 2008, I thought we were but a breath away from a major system meltdown, but it instead turned out to be a continual gradual decline, month by month, year by year.

Back in Dec 2010 when the price of silver was hovering around $29-30, I would have never guessed that the price of silver would be essential the same $29-30 one year later at Dec 2011.

These are just to name a couple examples. So I have learned that my short-term "predictor" is malfunctioning.

But a few things that I can predict:
My preps will continue, ever so gradually.

The price of PMs will *most likely* continue to rise over the long haul with respect to the dollar.

Good will prevail over evil, and there are "forces" much much bigger than ourselves in operation now and throughout the millenia.

Relationships will continue to be more valuable than material things. One of my best friends lost his 22 year old son to a car crash a couple days before Christmas. It makes you stop and realize to appreciate and enjoy the people in your life, as you never know how long they are with you.

My apologies for the lame predictions, but that is about the best I can do with my malfunctioning "predictor".
 
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My "Predict-O-Meter" is about as bad as they come (it is bad as my Sarcasm & BS Detector and my very poor Technical Trading Analysis System). So, I can only offer similar lame predictions as well.

Gold and silver will very likely go up as the deficits and debts keep growing. I agree as well: in an up & down manner.

---

I have been reading non-fiction lately. History (The Great Sea, David Abulafia -- a great read, 650 pages though...). This latest book and other material I have read through the years have demonstrated that it can take A LOT LONGER for a country (empire, etc.) to collapse than we might imagine. A really good example would be our own situation: sure did look like BAD STUFF was going to happen really fast back there in 2008. I, for one (starting say in 2007), did not think that the can could be kicked so far down the road, yet here we are. Other examples would be the British Empire and of course ancient Rome. So, it is possible that this could draw on for decades longer.

I have eaten so much popcorn waiting on the "Feature Attraction" that I am almost losing my taste for it... :popcorn:

---

Another book I am plowing my way through now is about the global arms business (The Shadow World, by Andrew Feinstein). I am up to page 113 now, and by happy coincidence there is a genuine False End-User Certificate illustrated right there. I remember when I was a teenager reading about arms-smuggling, and those bad end-user certificates... And this fake one looks kind of snappy too, what with all Official Seals and the French... I will study it and see if I can pick up some handy new French vocabulary (ammunition, etc, hey never know, the right words might come in handy in some bar there at some Belgian port...).

Having mentioned the global arms business may have caused a question for one or more of you. Is it as corrupt as they say? YES. Is the Pope a Catholic? Does a bear...? And yet, so far anyway, very few perps ever get tossed into the klink! I guess they have connections... :)

^--- Both of the above books are brand new.
 
By the end of 2012:

1)silver will rise 50-80% over current level
2)gold will rise 20-30% over current level
3) the Euro will be gone
4) platinum up 15-20% over current levels
5) Obama re-elected
6) US deficit above 2 trillion/annum
7) Oil price up 30-40% over current level
8) Grain prices 10-15% higher than current levels
9) New bailouts/stimulus round
10) QE3 will happen and it will be bigger than QE2
 
I think the European crisis will strengthen the dollar so much that we can delay the inevitable until at least 2013. . Due to US dollar strength, Bernanke will fire up the printing press... probably to prop up the Euro economy, thus serving a dual purpose.

Dow Jones up +10% due to continued investment from Euro capital.
Food, energy price up +10% in the US due to inflation.
PM's +20-30% due to inflation/demand.

Jobs and housing market -10%.
 
PAGE is set to open to the world in June 2012. The Chinese will be pushing hard to internationalize the Renminbi, even if it is constrained by a gold (and later silver) supply. They have their own internal economic problems boiling over which may hamper their central bank purchasing of bullion, but their billions of citizens might take up the slack once PAGE is fully realized and they have greater access to markets.

I think we see a continued run on the COMEX/LBMA bullion vaults. If Jim Willie, et. al. are correct re: MF Global, we are either going to see another similar scandal, or the COMEX is going to break.

I expect the Euro drama will play out throughout the year without any real resolution. The Fed will continue to try and prop it up indirectly via swaps and their various tentacles. If it gets out of hand (maybe by design?), I expect a greater push for the IMF/BIS/World Bank to bail out Europe with SDRs. If the OPEC nations start trading oil in SDRs, the push will be on for the global fiat replacement for the dollar.
 
gold will trade between 1450 and 2100.. Gold shares will outperform the metal and hit new highs before gold/silver. GRMC Goldrich Mining Company (trading at .115) will trade up to $.60 or greater by August. GDX (51.73) will trade above $70 by august.

The US dollar and treasuries will roll over.
 
Gee, a whole year? The next few days are hard enough for this old trader, and in most cases uncertainty goes up fast the longer the prediction.

Vapor volume rally till year end, might turn at any time.
First half - probably time to be short or out of most things.
There might be some all time lows on various commodity plays if some of the train wrecks happen - perhaps time to buy in again.
Second half - we'll see what the first half brings. No point being wrong or right from a trader's perspective. Surely most people can adjust their investments more than once a year.

We all see all these slow motion train wrecks that have to happen - but they're taking a long time. I think the order in which they happen is going to be hard to call, but that several of the possibilities would trigger most of the other ones and hurry them along - with whatever (dangerous?) government flailing once they have a crisis to not-waste - that's too wild a card to call. Humans are just too good at denial or this would have been over with already and we'd be growing out of the hole, instead of still slip-sliding in and out of it with precipices in sight.

But I see things pretty bleak for awhile now. Retail money is leaving the market and has been awhile, no letup there. Even with free money the Euro banks aren't buying sovereign debt for carry. Commodities low because of demand destruction being bigger than looming shortages - for now. Black Friday will be shown to have been a failure for many, just like Sears. Those deep discounts mean churn, but no profits. Cost cutting in corps is "there" already - next place to save money in the absence of an increasing demand is cutting bodies. We could have some large government induced blips up - totally unpredictable for me, but in my view, the recovery started around March '09 is pretty much done - stick a fork in it.

I think from a trading perspective we bounce around in various trading ranges, with occasional step functions up and down to new ranges. As long as we get enough swings in any one range - I'll do fine, it's only that last one to a new range I sometimes lose money on. I see this happening as the noise on a longer term trend down - maybe all year..for most equities. Even the gold chart is looking pretty sick of late - if we get the printing, that will recover, if not, well...you'll need fortitude for awhile.
 
DCFusor said:
Even with free money the Euro banks aren't buying sovereign debt for carry.
Click to expand...

I see this kind of commentary a lot but I think that people are missing the forest for the trees.

Why would these banks buy up sovereign debt when the market is this thin? It's the holidays.. There is no rush to put this money to work. They can wait before doing an allocation. If I was a bank, i'd wait for an auction and buy directly from the governments. Isn't that kind of the point? To reduce the borrowing costs of foreign governments and reduce the deleveraging by the banks?

Then in February they are doing the LTRO again right after the next Euro Summit.

People are too bearish.. Foreign governments are going to flood the markets with liquidity again.. Hell, they never really stopped. They just had to get public support for it.
 
earth will move through the exact central axis of our galaxy and eeerrrrr

all the good guys will suddenly get teleported to a nearby planet that we cant see yet but its here and eeerrrr

the sun will rise again (-;

More rabbits / deer will suddenly look up and sniff danger.......

But will 2012 be the year our collective understanding reaches a critical mass and the evil empire begin to loose its grip on keeping us all in our place ?
 
heh

if enough of us want that future, we create it (-:

You have a point regarding weed as a tradable commodity though
 
Yes, if enough of us want it - enough to do the work, and make no mistake, change is work. The only effective way to change the world is to change minds.

And yes, it's a very tradeable commodity. Tobacco and booze too, and may have other uses if nothing bad happens.
 
rblong2us said:
But will 2012 be the year our collective understanding reaches a critical mass and the evil empire begin to loose its grip on keeping us all in our place ?
Click to expand...

I think people are gradually waking up but most people will probably still be in the dark over the next year IMO.. Especially considering how they have obliterated sentiment for gold and silver over the past few months. They still have a reasonable amount of control over the market even if it's just temporary.
 
My predictions:
Gold and silver will be realized as money by the masses, as the fiat ponzi slowly unravels throughout the year.

Europe will break in to two distinct halves, allowing the southern periphery to print their way out of the mess the bankers created.

The dollar will peak at 110, then plunge as the Chinese are found to have been surreptitiously off-loading treasuries in order to pay for natural resources around the world.

War will break out in the Middle East, as escalating tensions between Iran and Israel bring about covert and overt strikes against suspected nuclear facilities. israel and the US will be seen as the antagonists and sanctioned by a not unanimous UN.

The "Boss" will demand that I replace the two bent aluminum carport colums that I backed in to last year. I will most likely comply.
 
ancona said:
The "Boss" will demand that I replace the two bent aluminum carport colums that I backed in to last year. I will most likely comply.
Click to expand...

heh keep us posted on this one, especially with regard to how you intend to use the damaged ones.

ok so there is a consensus that the 99%ers will become more aware of the nature and cause of our predicament, just no agreement on how close it gets to critical mass
 
My own 'machine assisted predictions' are not shaping up too well this week, so I'm keeping my mouth shut until I figure out why I'm seeing a typical looking upturn/reversal and a sell signal pretty much simultaneously. :)

Will try again in the new year when trading is also a bit more normal.

(I also just raided the penny jar and loaded up on more Ag)
 
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