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Old 10-25-2013, 09:51 AM   #101
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That was a pretty good article Aubuy, and the comments were very telling of the disconnect between metal and paper. I can't believe how many folks still do not realize what is going on at the big "market-making" banks with all their paper commodities.
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Old 10-28-2013, 08:48 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
~~~

From Friday:
Quote :
...
Oct 18:
Tonnes 882.23 - Ounces 28,364,468.08 - Value US $37.333 billion

Oct 17:
Tonnes 882.23 - Ounces 28,364,468.08 - Value US $37,411 billion

Oct 16:
Tonnes 885.53 - Ounces 28,470,642.88 - Value US $36,249 billion
...
...
The steady decline in GLD inventory continues. 10.21 tons over the last week:

Oct 25:
Tonnes 872.02 - Ounces 28,036,311.27 - Value US $37,774 billion

Oct 24:
Tonnes 876.52 - Ounces 28,181,083.24 - Value US $37,885 billion

Oct 23:
Tonnes 878.32 - Ounces 28,238,992.63 - Value US $37,582 billion

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013...45-tonnes.html
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Old 11-01-2013, 07:14 AM   #103
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Our friend Bron Sucheki published an interesting post on his blog yesterday:
Quote :
... kilo bars are primarily a size in demand in the India/Asian region rather than the US, and most of the bars in COMEX I guess would be 100oz. I note that the rulebook specifies a minimum of 99.5% purity whereas kilo bars for the Asian market are generally demanded to 99.99% purity. As it costs more to make 99.99 than 99.5, a bullion bank isn't going to put 99.99 kilo bars into COMEX and may not be able to use 99.5 COMEX bars to meet Asian demand without re-refining. So we sort of have two separate kilobar markets.

The end result of the above facts is that kilo bars in COMEX I guess would rare. Therefore, TF was on to something when he saw kilo bar movements into COMEX, the problem is he got the analysis completely backwards.

If Asian demand is high and a bullion bank can get good premiums on 99.99 kilobars, they are going to ask refiners to turn all mine dore into 99.99 kilo bars. So if we see 99.5 bars going into COMEX then it may be an indicator that Asian demand has eased. Maybe JPM had commitments with refiners to buy their output for a period of time, and if Asian demand had eased then they may have just asked their refineries to make 99.5 (for all we know maybe those deliveries were 99.99 kilo bars) and they are just parking them in their COMEX warehouse, waiting for Asian demand to return.

This Tuesday report from Reuters confirms the theory: Asia Gold-Chinese prices at a discount on credit crunch fears:
Quote :
"'The rise in borrowing costs in onshore China plays a crucial role. People don't want to keep the metal and they try to dump it to raise cash,' said one precious metals trader in Hong Kong. Another trader said there had not been a significant drop in demand but liquidation of stocks was taking its toll on prices."
... keep an eye on the CME reports - if there are movements of round ounce tonne lots, indicative of kilo bars, out of the warehouses then it may be an advance bullish signal of Asian demand returning.
...
http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2013...out-comex.html
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Old 11-01-2013, 07:23 AM   #104
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Harvey reports GLD inventory hasn't changed since Oct. 25:

Oct 31:
Tonnes 872.02 - Ounces 28,036,311.27 - Value US $37,106 billion

This would, I think, be supportive of Bron's assertions above.
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Old 11-01-2013, 10:21 AM   #105
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pump..pump..pump ... the sound of the fed expanding the equity balloon. The hot money is chasing stocks right now.

Last edited by Aubuy; 11-01-2013 at 10:41 AM. Reason: additional
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Old 11-04-2013, 07:03 AM   #106
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GLD:
Quote :
...
November 1: after a 4 day hiatus, gold lost a monstrous 5.7 tonnes ...

Tonnes 866.32 - Ounces 27,852,949.60 - Value US$36,382 billion
...
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013...ses-total.html

Quote :
Last week was turning out to be the quietest week in months in terms of COMEX gold inventories, until we had a large registered gold transfer that was reported late on Friday. This transfer took COMEX gold registered stocks to a new all-time low at just above 650,000 total registered gold ounces.
...



...
Total COMEX gold stocks only declined by a minute 499 ounces for the week, which was the quietest week we've seen in quite some time. But the week was marked by a large late week transfer of 48,652 gold ounces from registered gold inventory (deliverable) to eligible gold inventory (non-deliverable). This took total COMEX registered gold stocks to a new all-time low, falling past the previous low of 665,243 ounces seen in early September.

Finally, let us take a look at possibly the most important number when it comes to COMEX gold inventories - the registered gold cover ratio. We've discussed this in-depth in a previous article so please refer to that article for details, but in a nutshell it is the amount of investors owning a claim to each registered gold ounce (i.e. owner per registered gold ounce).



As investors can see, after declining a bit, owners-per-registered ounce advanced to 55 owners-per-registered ounce - which leaves us near historic record highs. In fact, before this year we've never seen above 40 owners-per-registered ounce - even during the spike in gold in 2011.
...
Additionally, we're seeing more and more owners per registered ounce in terms of the COMEX paper trading - if a mere 2% of outstanding contracts were held until delivery, there simply wouldn't be enough gold to cover it at current registered gold levels.
...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1799...w-all-time-low
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Old 11-18-2013, 08:11 AM   #107
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Quote :
Last week was another quiet week in terms of the number of physical gold transaction on the COMEX, which was very similar to the previous week. But on Thursday we saw one of the largest transactions in weeks as over 50,000 ounces of registered gold from the HSBC warehouse was transferred from registered to eligible status. This took COMEX registered gold inventories to a new all-time low at under 600,000 ounces.
...


The drop in registered gold inventories resulted in a new all-time high in owners-per-registered ounce, as the ratio soared to over 68.5 owners per registered gold ounce. Let us take a step back and understand what this means - it means that if only 1 contract out of every 68 contracts on the COMEX asked for delivery, there will not be enough gold to cover the delivery requirements. To see how abnormal this is, all one has to do is look at that last chart in the image above and see the unprecedented and parabolic rise in the "Number of Owners Per Ounce." As we always advise investors, whenever you see a parabola in anything financial, it usually precedes a major event. We believe something is coming - we just don't know what and when.
...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1844...s-surge-higher
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Old 11-21-2013, 08:09 AM   #108
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GLD inventory back on the (downward) move:

Nov 20/2013: Today we lost 2.7 tonnes of gold ...

Tonnes 860.31 - Ounces 27,659,859.22 - Value US$34,759 billion
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Old 11-22-2013, 08:28 AM   #109
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GLD making friends with the Tidy Bowl man:

Nov 21 2013: we lost a dandy 3.6 tonnes of gold ...

Tonnes 856.71 - Ounces 27,544,079.59 - Value US$34,144 billion


http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013...ld-leaves.html
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Old 11-25-2013, 08:52 AM   #110
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GLD continues free fallin':

Nov 22.2013: we had another huge bleed of 4.5 tonnes

Tonnes 852.21 - Ounces 27,399,356.44 - Value US$34,136 billion

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013...onnes-gld.html

Quote :
Last week ended with COMEX gold inventories hovering near all-time lows after seeing slight gains in registered gold ounces, though in eligible gold ounces the weekly gain was of a decent size. As we get closer to December, which is the month that traditionally has the most deliveries, it may get rather interesting with registered inventories at such historically low levels.

Another interesting thing to take note of is that COMEX open interest (the number of gold contracts outstanding) has been creeping up, from 40.2 million contracted ounces to 40.8 million ounces over the past week. This is something quite interesting ...

As investors can see, last week saw a decent size rise in total COMEX gold inventories as 33,271 ounces were added to COMEX warehouses - which makes this the seventh week in a row that gold has been added to COMEX eligible inventories. Registered gold inventories also saw an increase, but it was a mere 2,180 ounces, which makes it a tiny change and the smallest weekly move in registered gold over the past two months.

...

Even though registered gold inventories increased slightly over the past week, investors will notice that the owners-per-ounce ratio actually increased during the week to a new all-time high of 69 owners per registered gold ounce. This was primarily due to the increase in outstanding COMEX gold contracts as more traders opened gold contracts during the week.

As we alluded to in our introduction, we've also been seeing the open interest increasing in COMEX gold over the last few weeks, as seen in the 6-month chart below.

In layman's speak, an increase in open interest that is paired with declining prices suggests that new short positions are being opened up because traders are opening new contracts at the bid of the gold price rather than the ask.
...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1860...-all-time-lows
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Old 11-25-2013, 09:10 AM   #111
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PMBug,
With all of this gold purportedly fleeing the GLD warehouse, is there any new stock coming in to replace it? If GLD sold X quantity of shares, but they release Y ounces of gold from stock to satisfy some big order, or part of a big order, don't they need to replace the gold? I would think that there is some invisible line on the chart that cannot be crossed if the fund is to remain viable. At some point the other "investors" will certainly see that they are either being diluted out of their gold or that it simply can never be delivered. In any case, it looks like GLD is going the same way as the Crimex.......broke. I notice that Sprott has faced some recent redemption as well, and pretty large at that.

Is all this gold being sent to china? I read somewhere that a hell of a lot of gold has been sent to the Rand Refinery in SA for re-casting in to Asian acceptable bar sizes. At some point there will simply be no more vaulted gold with which to suppress prices. that day will be an interesting one. I'll bet the columns of smoke will be visible for miles and miles.
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Old 11-25-2013, 09:51 AM   #112
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
With all of this gold purportedly fleeing the GLD warehouse, is there any new stock coming in to replace it? ...
My understanding is that when new stock is added, it should be reflected on the same reports that Harvey, et. al. are using. Ie. No, GLD is not adding new ("net") inventory.

Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
If GLD sold X quantity of shares, but they release Y ounces of gold from stock to satisfy some big order, or part of a big order, don't they need to replace the gold? ...
No. See http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/in...ary&Itemid=131

Originally mentioned in this thread (for reference): http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/gold-etfs-iau-etc-130/

Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
I would think that there is some invisible line on the chart that cannot be crossed if the fund is to remain viable. ...
Same issue with the US Dollar. It's a confidence game.

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Old 11-26-2013, 09:19 AM   #113
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HSBC forklifts continue to get a workout (moving GLD gold):
Quote :
...
Nov 25.2013: we had another huge bleed of 3.3 tonnes of gold. ...

Tonnes 848.91 - Ounces 27,293,229.72 - Value US$33,914 billion
...
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/2013...33-tonnes.html
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Old 11-26-2013, 10:35 AM   #114
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At some point, when the mines have shut down enough production and China ramps demand further, and when the market simply cannot get their hands on any gold at any price, a paradigm shift must take place. I've been watching the show for quite a few years now and it appears [at least to me] that the fundamental flaws in their"paper system" are beginning to show some serious stress. As conditions become worse around the world, and the value of paper becomes more and more evident [$0.00] I believe there will be a rush to get in to metals that rivals anything we have seen so far. this time I believe that once gold and silver break their paper bonds, the paper pushers will not be able to regain the faith of the People for at least a generation.

With the latest rumblings from the banking sector about charging depositors for the privilege of "holding" their money [as an unsecured loan], and the deterioration of banks overall as a result of their dependence on QE4evr, we may also be facing another collapse.

Gold and silver held outside the corrupt banking regime will be the only wealth left after the smoke clears.
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Old 12-02-2013, 10:55 AM   #115
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Quote :
...
This week saw a decline in COMEX gold interest as outstanding contract ounces declined from 40.83 million ounces to 38.65 million ounces. But this is hardly surprising as US trading was quite slow for the Thanksgiving holiday and we expect to see an increase again next week as trading picks up. We also note that owners-per-registered-ounce remains extremely high at 65.4, and as the chart above shows, we remain on our parabolic rise in this statistic.

Finally, Indian premiums are again touching highs, and the new Chinese Lunar year approaches. Could major traders be trying to depress the price before December deliveries? We would not be surprised.
...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1869...eries-approach
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Old 12-06-2013, 04:53 AM   #116
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This seems interesting -

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...comex-travesty

and in the comments theres a few knowledgable folk .........

Comments speculating that the miners are buying and taking delivery because the price is lower than their production costs
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Old 12-06-2013, 06:38 AM   #117
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Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
...
and in the comments theres a few knowledgable folk .........
I noticed our friend Bron Suchecki weighed in a few times, but never addressed the main assertion. Is the Perth Mint long and taking delivery?
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Old 12-06-2013, 11:16 AM   #118
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Blimey Bug

I just noticed youve gone over 5000 posts !

Thats a lot of time youve given us all

Thank You.
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Old 12-06-2013, 11:28 AM   #119
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...

Bron Suchecki and FOFOA have been having some civil disagreements recently. And who knows WTF is going on with the GLD (not me!)?

I am just worrying about the state of the Central Bank of DoChenRollingBearing now.

Like I should worry about lying other central banks and "holders" (?) of physical gold. Yeah, sure...

/sarc

/LOL


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Old 12-12-2013, 01:25 PM   #120
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Does anyone know who is standing for all of those delivery warrants from the Comex in December? I just read somewhere that it is JPM, but want to be sure.
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