Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > PM Bug

Like Tree6Likes

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 03-16-2012, 09:21 AM   #1
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Lightbulb Gold more volatile than silver, platinum and palladium during last few days

During the last days, something extremely rare happened in pm markets.
Gold was more volatile on the downside than silver, platinum and palladium.
This shouldn't be the case for numerous reasons:
a) the gold market is the most liquid market
b) gold has practically no industrial uses (yet), it's really the pure currency amoung pms. Therefore it has historically traded like a currency.

If you look even further on an intraday basis, you can observe that the volatility started when London (LBMA) opened and really got wild when US markets opened (8 am ET).

Now one can scream MANIPULATION, yes. But this is an insufficient explanation imho. Additionally, it seems to be a clear sign to me that paper gold is currently going mainstream. Trading volume indicates that a lot of weak hands / newbies have entered the market recently. These are not necessarily retail investors, but maybe even inexperienced (as far as pms are concerned) institutionals who are selling at the first bigger correction.

Fasten your seatbelts, we have some crazy moves ahead.
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2012, 09:39 AM   #2
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,168
Liked: 2464 times
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2012, 01:39 PM   #3
KMS
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Cheesehead Land
Posts: 374
Liked: 119 times
Quote :
[JWR Adds: Keep in mind that we are still staring down barrel of a big, albeit brief pullback in the precious metals and equities in next 30 days, as margin calls will likely cascade from CDS derivatives fallout. Buy on the dips!]
By the way, I'm looking for some support to this call if anyone has some. I'm looking to buy at the moment. Wait til next week and see?
__________________
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.
Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin.
But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”
– Ernest Hemingway

If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it - Mark Twain

Last edited by KMS; 03-16-2012 at 01:48 PM.
KMS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2012, 02:32 PM   #4
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Originally Posted by KMS View Post:
By the way, I'm looking for some support to this call if anyone has some. I'm looking to buy at the moment. Wait til next week and see?
Scale scale scale scale
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2012, 02:48 PM   #5
PM Bug Supporter
 
DoChenRollingBearing's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: SE USA
Posts: 1,275
Liked: 691 times
@ swissaustrian

A lot of weaks hands indeed implies a lot of volatility to come. And this may happen (the cycle of weak hands buying GLD and then selling) one or more times in the future.

But, at some point, when things start getting BAD, we will likely know when it does come, the paper price will come down, but there will NO PHYSICAL.

End Game, bitchez! Your physical will be worth MUCH MORE!
Shelby-villian likes this.
DoChenRollingBearing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2012, 03:59 PM   #6
Yellow Jacket
 
DCFusor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Floyd, Virginia
Posts: 1,682
Liked: 1233 times
There was an article on ZH this am (now scrolled off screen) that pointed out "when to sell your gold", and addressed this point rather well. Those who think it's going up monotonically during wild times don't get it. It might, but it's more likely moving either way with a mostly-up bias - trade accordingly.

He says, you only sell your gold *after* the inevitable reset - it's sure to be worth a heck of a lot more then, when things are getting stable again and there are better uses for the value. In the meanwhile, expect a ride.

The trick is, when is that reset going to be - will we here even still be alive then? I'm reminded of the old one "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent" on that one. I'm already amazed how long it's lasted, frankly, but humans, even relatively stupid ones, have been fairly successful at self-preservation, historically - or this wouldn't even come up!
DCFusor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-16-2012, 07:03 PM   #7
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,168
Liked: 2464 times
Originally Posted by KMS View Post:
By the way, I'm looking for some support to this call if anyone has some. I'm looking to buy at the moment. Wait til next week and see?
Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Only you can decide where your comfort level is. Maybe silver drops down to $30 in the next week or so. Maybe it pops back to $35. Who knows.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2012, 02:44 PM   #8
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Once again, gold is down more than silver, palladium and platinum during the last 24 hours.
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2012, 04:06 PM   #9
Yellow Jacket
 
DCFusor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Floyd, Virginia
Posts: 1,682
Liked: 1233 times
I suspect a recent influx of buyers (now, sellers) who finally got the word gold is good at of course, just the wrong time. Those types probably didn't diversify, so when they all freaked and sold - (paper) gold was the only thing really sold.

I'd add to that probably some selling to cover other needs.

The selling will end soon enough, I think. We're just in a roller coaster year for a lot of things. My favorite year chart doesn't look a bit odd at this point. We might even test the lows earlier again, which would be bullish for me in the longer run.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...t=&a=&w=&v=d12

In fact, if we hold here - we've just made a near-perfect inverse head and shoulders.
swissaustrian likes this.
DCFusor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2012, 05:20 PM   #10
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
In fact, if we hold here - we've just made a near-perfect inverse head and shoulders.

Exactly my thoughts, we need to hold $ 1630
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2012, 05:44 PM   #11
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Good chart by ZH illustrating that gold is the major underperformer.

swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2012, 08:43 PM   #12
Yellow Jacket
 
Penn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,566
Liked: 249 times
I love to stack. Charts tho are meaningless.
Penn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2012, 09:29 PM   #13
Yellow Jacket
 
DCFusor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Floyd, Virginia
Posts: 1,682
Liked: 1233 times
I don't think charts are meaningless, exactly. But I am a behaviorist.

A lot of people really go for the TA off charts. They make decisions about what to trade based on what they see. Those become self fulfilling because so many people do it - maybe no other reason - but no other reason is required to make them at least somewhat predictive. So, if the charts scream buy in whatever form of TA is most popular today - then a lot of people buy, making it a good time to have bought, because all that buying made the price go up.

Works for me.

Stacking's good too, but I first have to make the money.
swissaustrian likes this.
DCFusor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2012, 09:40 PM   #14
Yellow Jacket
 
Penn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,566
Liked: 249 times
high frequency fat finger trades- ...
Penn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2012, 12:35 AM   #15
n00b
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Sydney Australia
Posts: 4
Liked: 0 times
Currently i hope it goes down, so i can buy heaps
synopsis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:15 AM   #16
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Gold is down more than silver today on a percentage basis. That's pretty rare. Maybe it has to do with silver trading close to long term support levels (26.6). But on the other hand, gold is trading at long term support of 1550, too.
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:28 AM   #17
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,168
Liked: 2464 times
GSR is ~58. Silver has a ways to go still to catch up to (IMO) a more reasonable valuation versus gold.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:31 AM   #18
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
GSR is ~58. Silver has a ways to go still to catch up to (IMO) a more reasonable valuation versus gold.
If the short term downtrend were to continue, I would expect the GSR to go to 65.
Anyway, it's a really good sign that silver is totally flushed out of speculators
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-12-2012, 11:50 AM   #19
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
This even looks like silver is in a short squeeze. However, this should not be happening so close to the major support levels, ususally these squeezes start a little higher. Anyway, I'll take it.
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2012, 02:45 PM   #20
Yellow Jacket
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 2,053
Liked: 925 times
We're once again experiencing a day with gold beeing equally volatile as silver and more volatile as platinum and palladium. As you can see from the history of this thread, this is rare and an indication of manipulation.
swissaustrian is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Platinum, Palladium, etc. DoChenRollingBearing PM Bug 52 04-20-2012 04:58 PM
Platinum Resurgent! DoChenRollingBearing PM Bug 16 03-13-2012 04:50 PM
KWN's 'London trader' says massive physical orders fulfilled in the last couple of days PMBug PM Bug 0 03-08-2012 07:22 AM
Fed primary dealers buying platinum PMBug PM Bug 1 10-25-2011 04:52 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:28 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2020 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.