Gold more volatile than silver, platinum and palladium during last few days

swissaustrian

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During the last days, something extremely rare happened in pm markets.
Gold was more volatile on the downside than silver, platinum and palladium.
This shouldn't be the case for numerous reasons:
a) the gold market is the most liquid market
b) gold has practically no industrial uses (yet), it's really the pure currency amoung pms. Therefore it has historically traded like a currency.

If you look even further on an intraday basis, you can observe that the volatility started when London (LBMA) opened and really got wild when US markets opened (8 am ET).

Now one can scream MANIPULATION, yes. But this is an insufficient explanation imho. Additionally, it seems to be a clear sign to me that paper gold is currently going mainstream. Trading volume indicates that a lot of weak hands / newbies have entered the market recently. These are not necessarily retail investors, but maybe even inexperienced (as far as pms are concerned) institutionals who are selling at the first bigger correction.

Fasten your seatbelts, we have some crazy moves ahead. :flail:
 

KMS

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[JWR Adds: Keep in mind that we are still staring down barrel of a big, albeit brief pullback in the precious metals and equities in next 30 days, as margin calls will likely cascade from CDS derivatives fallout. Buy on the dips!]
By the way, I'm looking for some support to this call if anyone has some. I'm looking to buy at the moment. Wait til next week and see?
 
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DoChenRollingBearing

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@ swissaustrian

A lot of weaks hands indeed implies a lot of volatility to come. And this may happen (the cycle of weak hands buying GLD and then selling) one or more times in the future.

But, at some point, when things start getting BAD, we will likely know when it does come, the paper price will come down, but there will NO PHYSICAL.

End Game, bitchez! Your physical will be worth MUCH MORE!
 

DCFusor

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There was an article on ZH this am (now scrolled off screen) that pointed out "when to sell your gold", and addressed this point rather well. Those who think it's going up monotonically during wild times don't get it. It might, but it's more likely moving either way with a mostly-up bias - trade accordingly.

He says, you only sell your gold *after* the inevitable reset - it's sure to be worth a heck of a lot more then, when things are getting stable again and there are better uses for the value. In the meanwhile, expect a ride.

The trick is, when is that reset going to be - will we here even still be alive then? I'm reminded of the old one "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent" on that one. I'm already amazed how long it's lasted, frankly, but humans, even relatively stupid ones, have been fairly successful at self-preservation, historically - or this wouldn't even come up!
 

pmbug

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By the way, I'm looking for some support to this call if anyone has some. I'm looking to buy at the moment. Wait til next week and see?
Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. $.02

Only you can decide where your comfort level is. Maybe silver drops down to $30 in the next week or so. Maybe it pops back to $35. Who knows.
 

swissaustrian

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Once again, gold is down more than silver, palladium and platinum during the last 24 hours.
 

DCFusor

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I suspect a recent influx of buyers (now, sellers) who finally got the word gold is good at of course, just the wrong time. Those types probably didn't diversify, so when they all freaked and sold - (paper) gold was the only thing really sold.

I'd add to that probably some selling to cover other needs.

The selling will end soon enough, I think. We're just in a roller coaster year for a lot of things. My favorite year chart doesn't look a bit odd at this point. We might even test the lows earlier again, which would be bullish for me in the longer run.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=&a=&w=&v=d12

In fact, if we hold here - we've just made a near-perfect inverse head and shoulders.
 

Penn

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I love to stack. Charts tho are meaningless.
 

DCFusor

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I don't think charts are meaningless, exactly. But I am a behaviorist.

A lot of people really go for the TA off charts. They make decisions about what to trade based on what they see. Those become self fulfilling because so many people do it - maybe no other reason - but no other reason is required to make them at least somewhat predictive. So, if the charts scream buy in whatever form of TA is most popular today - then a lot of people buy, making it a good time to have bought, because all that buying made the price go up.

Works for me.

Stacking's good too, but I first have to make the money.
 

swissaustrian

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Gold is down more than silver today on a percentage basis. That's pretty rare. Maybe it has to do with silver trading close to long term support levels (26.6). But on the other hand, gold is trading at long term support of 1550, too.
 

pmbug

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GSR is ~58. Silver has a ways to go still to catch up to (IMO) a more reasonable valuation versus gold.
 

swissaustrian

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GSR is ~58. Silver has a ways to go still to catch up to (IMO) a more reasonable valuation versus gold.
If the short term downtrend were to continue, I would expect the GSR to go to 65.
Anyway, it's a really good sign that silver is totally flushed out of speculators :flushed:
 

swissaustrian

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This even looks like silver is in a short squeeze. However, this should not be happening so close to the major support levels, ususally these squeezes start a little higher. Anyway, I'll take it.
 

swissaustrian

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We're once again experiencing a day with gold beeing equally volatile as silver and more volatile as platinum and palladium. As you can see from the history of this thread, this is rare and an indication of manipulation.
 
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