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Old 04-21-2012, 05:08 PM   #1
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Lightbulb Perfect storm for pm volatility coming on April 25th (FOMC & opex)

Next week on Wednesday (4-25), the FOMC meets ( http://www.commodityonline.com/futur...UBS-27989.html ) AND pm options expire (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/meta...r_options.html ) . These events usually are the most volatile days for pms. This month they are on the same day.

Jim Rickards expects a first QE hint by the FED this month:

We already had strange trading activity in pms this week. Despite significant moves in stocks and currencies, pms basicly didn't go anywhere. This was probably the calm before the storm.
Fasten your seatbelts


For opex related pm manipulation see here:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/option...one-chart-229/
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/silver...one-chart-290/

I'm gonna open an options volatility trade in silver on monday:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f3/how-tr...g-options-343/
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Last edited by swissaustrian; 04-22-2012 at 03:07 PM.
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Old 04-21-2012, 06:31 PM   #2
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Well I for one, hope it provides the dip I have been hoping for. I have dry powder, and I need to convert it from it's natural debt-backed form into a tangible PM form.
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Old 04-23-2012, 10:11 AM   #3
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PMs on sale so far this morning...
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Old 04-23-2012, 10:16 AM   #4
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I see those prices following the rise in dollar strength very closely, and while Europe is open. I would buy some now, but I'd rather wait and see what happens Wednesday.
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Old 04-23-2012, 11:38 AM   #5
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Gold is doing ok so far. Arround 9am et buyers stepped in below 1630. Now it's trading like a derivative of eur/usd.
Silver got slaughhered during the first your of comex trading. But it is still above 30, so there's nothing to be concerned about. My volatility trade is doing time
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Old 04-23-2012, 02:40 PM   #6
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It really looks like "someone" needs the metals to stay within a particular range until after Europe's election season. As for the US election, I further suspect we will see some wierd action right up until November.
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Old 04-23-2012, 02:47 PM   #7
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I don't think we want the scenario where gold drops honestly. We need this game to keep going to keep stacking. IMO.. A drop (ie to 1400) would force the hand of governments too early. I want to be more prepared and having the duration of the trade drawn out will only help me in my preparations.
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:34 AM   #8
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Watch the comex opening in 26 minutes. It's the day before opex. This usually a big move right at the opening bell
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:31 AM   #9
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This is a really light month for options. We are pretty much in no man's land for options so I don't think too many shenanigans are going to happen this month. At least, I don't think the volatility will be the result of opex. It should be 100% based on the fed.
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Old 04-24-2012, 09:44 AM   #10
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Silver trading at 31.000 is clearly opex related. Now we know the reason why it fell so mich yesterday.
I expect gold to close at arround 1650.
Platinum is also trading at a round number : 1550. So is palladium: 675.
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:22 AM   #11
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The miners are doing much better than the metals today. Usually they plunge before a raid, so that's looking unlikely so far...
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:46 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
The miners are doing much better than the metals today. Usually they plunge before a raid, so that's looking unlikely so far...
gold is getting raided right now.

The shares are largely ignoring it simply because they are so washed out already. The general market being up isn't hurting either.

I really do think this is starting to look like a setup very similar to spring of 05. The correction in gold and the stocks is just eerily similar to the one we had in 04-05. In that period, the shares went through a correction of similar duration and magnitude and strangely enough, so did gold and silver. In addition, sentiment was buried in a very similar fashion to how it currently is.
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Old 04-25-2012, 10:18 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
Silver trading at 31.000 is clearly opex related. Now we know the reason why it fell so mich yesterday.
I expect gold to close at arround 1650.
Platinum is also trading at a round number : 1550. So is palladium: 675.
Silver at 31 isn't 'rounded enough'. They want 30 at least.
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:11 AM   #14
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Silver got hammered around 10 this morning; always fun to see a 50 cent drop in a matter of minutes!
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:32 AM   #15
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The activity in silver is clearly opex driven. None of the other metals had a correlated move when the raid occured.
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:33 AM   #16
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Ok here we go gold got hit as expected...
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:34 AM   #17
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still going (still watching)
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Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin.
But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.”
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:35 AM   #18
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And the buyers step in to BTFD
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:37 AM   #19
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It looks like Silver is following with Gold and dropping for a second time today. Amazing to see a sub $30 silver price! I may need to dip into reserve funds for an extra big may purchase.
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:37 AM   #20
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Silver briefly dropped below 30
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