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Old 07-05-2013, 07:06 AM   #41
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India's gold and silver imports are expected to have declined substantially to USD 2-2.5 billion in June following recent steps taken by the government as well as the RBI to curb imports of the yellow metal.
Quote :
. These imports grew 89 per cent to USD 8.39 billion in May
Quote :
The final figures for gold and silver imports will be released by the Commerce Ministry by the middle of this month.

http://www.mydigitalfc.com/news/gold...25-bn-june-593

I'm sure the black market is picking up a lot of the slack but 8 billion to 2 billion is a big drop...
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Old 07-10-2013, 11:25 AM   #42
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I had the chance this morning to reconnect with Vishal Vyas, head of operations at India’s top bullion dealer, Pushpak Bullions Pvt. Ltd.

It was a sobering conversation, as Vishal indicated that the Indian government has just stepped in and crushed the domestic gold market with punitive taxation and trade controls. He also indicated that Dubai is now becoming a major recipient of “gold tourism”—with tourists flooding into the United Arab Emirates in order to buy gold.

Speaking to the recent steps taken by the Indian government to smash demand coming from the world’s largest gold market, Vishal said, “In India, due to the monetary policy and pressure from the finance ministry to control the current account deficit, the government is trying to curb the import of gold into India. They [just] increased customs duties by 2%, which is now at 8%. Apart from that, they have also banned the import of gold on a consignment basis—which was the normal practice worldwide to import gold.”

These new measures have crushed domestic Indian demand by about 86%. ...
More: http://bullmarketthinking.com/indian...unitive-taxes/
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Old 07-10-2013, 11:35 AM   #43
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Yip...

Expect places like UAE and India's neighboring countries to suddenly have HUGE increases in gold imports.
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Old 07-10-2013, 11:36 AM   #44
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This might also partially explain the gold shortages in Hong Kong right now.
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Old 07-10-2013, 11:46 AM   #45
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Yip again.

The Indian government also better hope that this stabilises the Rupee, because if it keeps getting weaker and people can't get gold & silver, watch out...

Also the Indian wedding season is coming up at the end of September and if there's not enough supply around for people to engage in their sacred, traditional cultural practice that dates back THOUSANDS of years, again, watch out..
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Old 07-10-2013, 02:00 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by Unbeatable View Post:
Yip...

Expect places like UAE and India's neighboring countries to suddenly have HUGE increases in gold imports.
China and Pakistan?
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Old 07-10-2013, 03:24 PM   #47
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Yeah any of the neighboring countries.

Quote :
In an attempt to control revenue leakage and gold smuggling to India, Nepal has decided to closely monitor the import and distribution of gold. (09/06/2013)
http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/ne...ld-import/2025

Quote :
The hub for bringing gold into India is Dubai, but gold can enter the country from other directions as well. "Illegal gold may enter through borders adjoining Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Shri Lanka," said Bachhraj Bamalva, director, GJF.
Quote :
GFMS Thomson Reuters has estimated 102 tonnes of gold entered the country through unofficial routes last year. In the current year, smuggling is expected to be much higher.
http://www.business-standard.com/art...0601016_1.html
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Old 07-22-2013, 11:14 AM   #48
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Even with the huge collapse in gold imports in June, India is still tightening gold imports further! Me thinks maybe they do it because the West is telling them too...



Quote :
RBI further tightens gold import rules to tame demand

Quote :
The RBI asked all nominated banks and agencies to export at least one-fifth of every lot of imported gold in all forms, and locally make it available only for jewellers.

The central bank said banks need to retain 20 per cent of the imported gold in customs bonded warehouses, and will only be able to further import gold after exporting at least 75 per cent of the gold from those warehouses.

Last month, the RBI had ruled out any transactions for imports unless they were intended to make jewellery for export, as it looks to rein in a record current account deficit.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/21248707.cms

Good luck...
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Old 07-22-2013, 11:20 AM   #49
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Speaking of which...

Quote :
80% dip in gold imports linked to rampant smuggling
Quote :
Financial intelligence agencies are alarmed by the steep and sudden fall in gold imports recorded for June, suggesting large-scale smuggling of the yellow metal since import duty was increased from 6% to 8%
Quote :
"Though curbs on sale of gold bars and coins and increased duty have brought the demand down a bit but not more than 20%-30% on an average. But imports have dropped by 80%. This simply means the rest is being smuggled," said a senior officer from Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI).
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/b...w/21198956.cms
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Old 07-25-2013, 07:24 PM   #50
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Quote :
Gold Smuggling Takes Off in India
Quote :
The value of the gold seized during the quarter was 270 million rupees, more than 10 times the 25 million rupees of precious metal retrieved from smugglers during the same period in 2012, said the official. The total number of cases of smuggled gold during the same period shot up to 205 from 21 a year earlier, said an official at the Antismuggling Department. "I think we are able to detect only about 5% to 10% of the gold smuggling in the country." "It is mostly coming from Dubai but also from Bangkok and Singapore." The official said some of the gold comes by sea, but it also us being smuggled across land borders with Bangladesh and Nepal.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...651144876.html

The numbers (10 x more arrests and 10x more gold seized than same period last year.) indicate up to a 1000% rise in smuggling.

& considering Thomson Reuteurs estimated about 102 tonnes of gold was smuggled into India last year, a 1000% increase would indicate up to a 1000 tons being smuggled this year and considering they imported 162 tons 'officially' in May. That's not unreasonable.

Indias attempts to curb real money = FAIL


But that won't stop them trying...

Quote :
Kothari, or PK, as he is known in Zaveri Bazaar, has revved up a cumulative turnover of Rs1.2 lakh crore over the past six years, earning the title of India's 'bullion king'.
Quote :
An intimidating force of about 100 income-tax officials raided RSBL's (his) offices last month.
Quote :
Kothari claims. "I will shut down all my trade if the I-T department finds a single bogus entry in RSBL's accounts," dares Kothari.
http://articles.economictimes.indiat...ullion-trading
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Old 07-29-2013, 05:17 PM   #51
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Quote :
Gold premiums in India double as supplies decline on curbs

Quote :
“The fees paid by jewellers to banks and other importers climbed to about $10 an ounce over the London cash price from as low as $4 an ounce a week earlier,” said Haresh Soni, chairman of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation
http://www.livemint.com/Money/7PhRpz...-on-curbs.html
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Old 07-30-2013, 06:46 AM   #52
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That's still a cheaper premium than what folks are paying in Hong Kong isn't it?
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Old 07-30-2013, 07:20 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
That's still a cheaper premium than what folks are paying in Hong Kong isn't it?
Yes, I think the premiums in Hong Kong have been up around $30 an ounce.

I googled again and a reuters article from Monday quotes the same organisation as saying

Quote :
Premiums jumped to $25-30 an ounce on London prices as against $20 an ounce last week, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, a director at the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, adding "there is massive shortage of gold due to restrictions."
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/0...0FZ23J20130729

So yeah that sounds more like the comparable number.

(I guess the $10 number must be referencing a different point in the supply chain or something.)
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Old 07-30-2013, 08:53 PM   #54
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Pakistan bans gold imports...

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ISLAMABAD:
In an attempt to address steep devaluation of the rupee against the dollar, Pakistan on Tuesday temporarily banned import of gold to save the precious foreign currency reserves.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/584352/c...n-gold-import/
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Old 08-02-2013, 12:31 PM   #55
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Bangladesh is going to be next after Pakistan
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Old 08-14-2013, 12:23 PM   #56
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The finance ministry lifted the import tax on gold to 10% from 8%. The tax on silver was also raised to 10%, from 6%. India is the world's biggest gold consumer and a leading market for silver.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...286710906.html

I don't know how guys like bronsuchecki can suggest the bullion banks aren't involved in the RBI decision making. Because the total annual global supply of silver only equals 20 Billion dollars, and even if India took an increased share of that it wouldn't make a big difference to their current account deficit, (Which is the reason they 'claim' they are implementing all these controls...)
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Old 08-14-2013, 07:56 PM   #57
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I just realised that every time they raise the gold import tax in India they also raise the value of the gold Indian people already own.

If person A has to choose between paying 'X' + 10% tax at a store or buying from a friend @ X + 8/9%, he would most likely choose the second option.

So whenever the RBI says 'we are raising the import tax', they are really saying 'we are increasing the value of the gold you already own.'

In fact thanks to the falling rupee & the government taxes, gold only has to gain another 100 bucks for gold to start setting new highs in Rupees!

If either gold keeps running up &/or the Rupee continues its decline we might even see an effective price of 100 000 rupees per ounce in the next month, that will be a magic number for the Indians, especially with a crashing currency & I think then you'll really see the meaning of the words 'gold rush'
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Old 08-19-2013, 12:20 PM   #58
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India and Indonesia appeared trapped in a race to the bottom on Monday, as both the rupee and the rupiah fell sharply against the US dollar, prompting a selloff in equities.

The Indian rupee continued its relentless decline, hitting the latest in a series of all-time lows against the US dollar and dashing hopes the government had succeeded in calming the country's unsettled financial markets.
...
The Indian rupee has now overtaken the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen to become Asia’s worst performing currency this year, having fallen 12 per cent against the US dollar. Globally, only the Brazilian real and the South African rand have recorded bigger declines.
...
Over the weekend a range of senior figures including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tried to calm investor fears that the country's mixture of weakening growth and an unsustainable current account gap was pushing India’s economy towards a crisis point.

Notably, officials ruled out capital controls on foreign investors, following a series of limited regulations restricting movement of funds for domestic institutions that alarmed markets last week, amid concerns that larger foreign "long only" funds might soon begin to remove money from India.
...
"This turbulence will continue in the short run, but Friday's mayhem was really triggered by the fear that the RBI would do more in the way of capital controls," said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank in Mumbai. "I think that was overdone  ...  but the problem is that while India is trying to mend its current account problem this will take time, while the markets are reacting to overnight news."
http://gata.org/node/12935

I hope India does not go "full bore Argentina".
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Old 08-21-2013, 07:46 AM   #59
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The Indian government have taken so many steps to curb gold demand this year, that it's hard to keep track of them all. This is a good summary that I stumbled across from Reuters.

Quote :
Jan 21 - The government raises gold import duty by 2 percent to 6 percent.

Jan 22 - The government more than doubles duty on raw gold to 5 percent.

Jan 30 - Finance Minister P. Chidambaram says no plans for additional taxes or curbs on gold imports.

Feb 1 - The RBI plans to introduce three to four gold-linked products in the next few months.

Feb 6 - The RBI says it would consider imposing value and quantity restrictions on gold imports by banks.

Feb 14 - The central bank relaxes rules on gold deposit schemes offered by banks by allowing lenders to offer the products with shorter maturities.

Feb 20 - Trade ministry recommends suspending cheaper gold jewellery imports from Thailand.

Feb 28 - India keeps its gold import duty unchanged in its annual national budget, defying industry expectations.

Feb 28 - India proposes a transaction tax of 0.01 percent on non-agricultural futures contracts including precious metals.

March 1 - Finance minister appeals to people not to buy so much gold.

March 18 - The Reserve Bank of India says it is examining banks that sell gold coins and wealth management products to identify "systemic issues", with a view to closing any legal loopholes.

April 2 - Finance Minister suggests unlikely to raise the import tax on gold further to avoid smuggling and would instead introduce inflation-indexed instruments.

May 3 - The RBI restricts the import of gold on a consignment basis by banks.

June 3 - Finance minister says India cannot afford high levels of gold imports and may review its import policy.

June 5 - India hikes gold import duty by a third to 8 percent.

June 21 - Reliance Capital (RLCP.NS) halts gold sales and investments in its gold-backed funds.

June 24 - India's biggest jewellers' association asks members to stop selling gold bars and coins, about 35 percent of their business.

July 10 - India's jewellers could continue a voluntary ban on sales of gold coins and bars for six months.

July 22 - The RBI moves to tighten gold imports again, making them dependent on export volumes, but offers relief to domestic sellers by lifting restrictions on credit deals.

July 31 - India hopes to contain gold imports well below 845 tonnes that were shipped last year, Finance Minister says.

Aug 13 - India hikes import duty on gold for a third time in 2013 to 10 percent. Duties for silver and platinum also increased to 10 percent. Customs duty on gold dore bars, ore or concentrate increased to 8 percent from 6 percent.

Aug 14 - India turns the screws on gold buying again, banning imports of coins and medallions and making domestic buyers pay cash.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/0...97I08O20130819
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Old 08-21-2013, 01:15 PM   #60
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India bans all ownership of gold ...

then silver .....

then everything that is not paper .......

that ought to do it
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