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Old 12-28-2012, 01:26 PM   #101
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Here's something interesting about the big physical buyers.
LBMA 1 month gold forward rates have just hit a yearly low today.
Longer term rates have also fallen but not that heavy:

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y
18-Dec-12 0.34200 0.36600 0.39400 0.46000 0.49200
19-Dec-12 0.34800 0.36800 0.39600 0.45800 0.49200
20-Dec-12 0.34600 0.36400 0.38800 0.45000 0.49000
21-Dec-12 0.32333 0.36000 0.38833 0.44667 0.48167
24-Dec-12 0.32200 0.34600 0.37800 0.43600 0.48400
27-Dec-12 0.30600 0.33200 0.35800 0.42800 0.47400
28-Dec-12 0.28400 0.32000 0.34600 0.42400 0.47400
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.c...ards&show=2012

What this probably means:
Somebody is buying the dip. And the "sellers" are leasing the gold on a short term basis, ie mainly 1-2 months.
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Old 12-28-2012, 01:32 PM   #102
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Snidely

And here's the phony explanation of the LBMA for the discontinuation of the SIFO publications (for details see NLL's article above):

Quote :
Cessation of SIFO 11:00 Means with effect from 5th November 2012
Following consultation with the LBMA forward Market Makers, and more generally with other market participants, the LBMA Management Committee has agreed that after 2nd November 2012, the forward Market Makers will cease making contributions of their mid-price silver forward rates to allow the calculation of the SIFO means on the Reuters system each day. The reason for the withdrawal of the dataset was that unlike GOFO these rates were indicative rates only and therefore not dealable rates between forward Market Makers. In addition, since January 2011, the LBMA forward Market Makers have jointly contributed essentially the same data (but covering an extended range of maturities – from spot to 3 years) to the LBMA’s daily forward curve for silver. This forward curve can be obtained from a variety of data vendors (Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and others). If you are interested in receiving this dataset please refer to the Silver Forward curve page on the LBMA website for further details.
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.c...ilver_forwards

Sounds like Libor all over again...
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Old 01-07-2013, 01:11 PM   #103
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Kitco is publishing silver lease rates again. They've started putting data in since Dec 21st. I Don't know where they're getting it from as the LBMA doesn't post the data any longer (see above)

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Old 02-14-2013, 11:05 AM   #104
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Gold forward rates from 1 month to 6 months have been falling massively on the current price drop. 1 year rates haven't moved much. A possible explanation is short term leasing into the market to suppress prices.

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y
06-Feb-13 0.29000 0.30667 0.32667 0.39333 0.42833
07-Feb-13 0.28400 0.29800 0.32200 0.38600 0.43200
08-Feb-13 0.28333 0.30167 0.32500 0.38833 0.43000
11-Feb-13 0.27333 0.28833 0.31167 0.37833 0.42667
12-Feb-13 0.25333 0.27000 0.29500 0.36167 0.41833
13-Feb-13 0.22833 0.26000 0.28000 0.35000 0.41333
14-Feb-13 0.20333 0.22500 0.25000 0.33167 0.40167
http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.c...d=55&show=2013

That's even lower than in late December when we had reached very low rates, too. The December rates were not even spike low rates. They've stayed ther until five days ago:
http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/negati...html#post17377


You have to go back to early summer of 2011 to find similar rates for gold

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_i...ards&show=2011
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Old 02-15-2013, 10:03 AM   #105
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aand another decrease in rates:

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y
14-Feb-13 0.20333 0.22500 0.25000 0.33167 0.40167
15-Feb-13 0.18333 0.20500 0.23833 0.31833 0.38000

at this rate, we'd be in backwardation in ten days.

combine this with that:
Quote :
Market talk of strong demand for spot Gold around the current session lows - unconfirmed; trades USD 1613.33 (-1.32%)

'Market talk’ – Signifies information that has not been formally tested through traditional journalistic channels and therefore is to be treated as unsubstantiated. Any interpretation of the talk is taken at the readers own risk and is a representation of the rumours within the market place and never generated by ourselves.
http://ransquawk.com/headlines/marke...-32-15-02-2013
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Old 02-15-2013, 11:31 AM   #106
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Last time the gold spot dipped (a few days ago) I saw huge volume of physical metal leave the Apmex inventories.
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Old 02-19-2013, 01:39 PM   #107
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Gold forward rates have declined a tiny bit more during the last two days.

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y
15-Feb-13 0.18333 0.20500 0.23833 0.31833 0.38000
18-Feb-13 0.18000 0.20000 0.22667 0.31000 0.37333
19-Feb-13 0.17667 0.19833 0.22500 0.31000 0.37333
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Old 02-28-2013, 10:13 AM   #108
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The physical gold market seems to be getting tighter and tighter:


1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y
20-Feb-13 0.18000 0.19833 0.21667 0.30167 0.36667
21-Feb-13 0.18600 0.19800 0.21400 0.30000 0.37400
22-Feb-13 0.16500 0.18833 0.20667 0.29333 0.36333
25-Feb-13 0.16167 0.18500 0.20333 0.29667 0.35333
26-Feb-13 0.14500 0.17167 0.19833 0.29000 0.34833
27-Feb-13 0.14750 0.17000 0.20250 0.29750 0.35250
28-Feb-13 0.13333 0.15333 0.18000 0.26500 0.33167

The last time we had such low forward rates was in late January / early February 2010: http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/?page_i...ards&show=2010

Look at what happened thereafter:
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Old 04-09-2013, 11:05 AM   #109
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Meanwhile the physical market is back at the tightness from two weeks ago. China is back from holidays in early April.

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y
28-Mar-13 0.24167 0.26333 0.27667 0.31333 0.36500
02-Apr-13 0.23500 0.25833 0.27333 0.30833 0.35833
03-Apr-13 0.22500 0.24333 0.26000 0.30667 0.34833
04-Apr-13 0.19333 0.21167 0.23333 0.29000 0.33833
05-Apr-13 0.18000 0.20333 0.22833 0.28333 0.33167
08-Apr-13 0.17800 0.19800 0.22000 0.27600 0.32600
09-Apr-13 0.17667 0.19333 0.21167 0.26833 0.32500
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Old 05-09-2013, 09:24 AM   #110
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Lowest 1m forward rate since Nov. 2008
About to go negative?

1y rate at record low levels.

Curve basicly flat.

Phyiscal market seems to get ultra tight.

I lack the time to post more. I'll be back in two weeks or so.

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y
30-Apr-13 0.17667 0.19000 0.20500 0.23000 0.27167
01-May-13 0.18000 0.19500 0.20500 0.22833 0.26333
02-May-13 0.17800 0.18600 0.19400 0.22400 0.25800
03-May-13 0.17000 0.18500 0.19500 0.22500 0.25667
07-May-13 0.16000 0.17167 0.18333 0.20500 0.25667
08-May-13 0.15600 0.16600 0.18400 0.21000 0.25400
09-May-13 0.09333 0.10000 0.11333 0.15500 0.21667
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Last edited by swissaustrian; 05-09-2013 at 09:30 AM. Reason: forward rate, not lease rate
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Old 05-09-2013, 09:48 AM   #111
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Wow! That's a pretty significant change - roughly 40% drop in 1 day.
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Old 05-10-2013, 10:35 AM   #112
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LOWER:
09-May-13 0.09333 0.10000 0.11333 0.15500 0.21667
10-May-13 0.08400 0.09600 0.10600 0.14800 0.22000

Makes total sense given the 2% drop in gold today, NOT

Just as an explanation: These record low rates mean that spot gold is in such high demand that the premium for future delivery in 1 / 2 / 3 / 6 / 12 months, the so called forward rate, is close to nothing. This is unprecedented.
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Old 05-10-2013, 10:45 AM   #113
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Back from 2008, the all time low with NEGATIVE 1 and 2 month rates:
21-Nov-08 -0.11667 -0.07429 0.05000 0.44000 0.86857



This time arround 6 month and 12 month rates are much lower

Last edited by swissaustrian; 05-10-2013 at 10:49 AM.
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Old 05-13-2013, 07:21 AM   #114
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Another massive fall in forward rates today.Gold forward rates are on the verge of going negative for the first time since November 2008! That means backwardation is coming!

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y

13-May-13 0.03833 0.05833 0.07167 0.13167 0.20500

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.c...ards&show=2013

6 month and 1 year rates are at record lows.

The physical market is dislocated.
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Old 05-14-2013, 10:01 AM   #115
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Looking at the link SwissAustrian provided, I see the rates are even lower today!

http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.c...ards&show=2013

1m / 2m / 3m / 6m / 1y

08-May-13: 0.15600 0.16600 0.18400 0.21000 0.25400
09-May-13: 0.09333 0.10000 0.11333 0.15500 0.21667
10-May-13: 0.08400 0.09600 0.10600 0.14800 0.22000
13-May-13: 0.03833 0.05833 0.07167 0.13167 0.20500
14-May-13: 0.00333 0.03167 0.04833 0.10333 0.17500
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Old 05-15-2013, 08:09 AM   #116
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As rates were about to go negative, somebody (likely official sector) obviously found some supply:

15-May-13 0.03500 0.05667 0.07667 0.11833 0.18833
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Old 05-15-2013, 08:20 AM   #117
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How long will it last at these prices?

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Old 05-16-2013, 07:14 AM   #118
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Price goes down, rates go up. ???

16-May-13 0.04833 0.06833 0.08000 0.12333 0.18833
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Old 05-17-2013, 08:35 AM   #119
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Flatten that curve....

17-May-13 0.04833 0.06500 0.07833 0.12167 0.18500
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Old 05-17-2013, 08:52 AM   #120
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I'd bet that central banks are busy leasing gold into the market to deal with the shortages. Rates would have gone negative already otherwise.
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