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Old 08-30-2012, 09:31 AM   #1
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Widget Shows Big Premium for Physical Gold

Awhile back, I looked at the widget that compared the spot price of gold vs. the offer price at eBay for American Gold Eagles. I did not do this long enough to pick up any useful information, alas. Typically the premium of eBay over sport was 5.5% - 9.5% or so (about 80% of the time the premium was in this range).

Today (now, 10:30 AM US ET) the premium is 11.1%.

The widget can be found at the bottom of the homepage of

I have no idea if this means anything (scarcity), probably not. But, it is an indicator that may be worth something, even if only just to worth monitoring, like PMBug watches APMEX inventories.
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Old 08-30-2012, 09:36 AM   #2
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Previous discussion regarding ebay widgets:

One day results could easily be the result of an anomoly in the search results. If you see a consistent/persistent trend, it would be more meaningful IMO.
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Old 08-30-2012, 10:32 AM   #3
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Well.. It's a reflection of an improvement in Sentiment. Premiums are rising as sentiment improves. If you look at the lows for gold and silver, you usually see NAV extremes in mutual funds that invest in them. PSLV, SLV and the like can get NEGATIVE readings at the lows and extreme premiums over NAV at highs.

Sentiment @68 on the NDR for physical gold. That's a little overdone short term. NOT extreme though. The last peak was around 90.

At the same time, the sentiment for the miners is in the 40s. Low 70s are usually as high as it gets.

Bullish % (point and figure buy signals) for the miners is at 45%. Meaningful highs are in the 70-90 range. We had a 55 (approximately) at the end of February and having a high there was supposed to be highly unlikely.

So.. when you take those kinds of numbers in context, we are no longer at an extreme on the downside but we also aren't at an extreme on the upside either.
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