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Old 03-22-2013, 05:23 PM   #21
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Ok looks like odds have come down just in the last 20 minutes.

Just to show wasn't making it up here is the post that brought it to my attention.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156613.0

What's worse is I didn't take advantage, I jumped in the shower and thought I'll do it afterwards once I'm clearer I'm not making mistake or seeing if there's fine print etc.

Edit: Now I see their site reads 'Sorry, we currently do not offer betting on Bitcoin value at end of 2013' - must have been a lot of money going on real fast.

Last edited by Unbeatable; 03-22-2013 at 05:32 PM.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:15 AM   #22
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It looks like there may already be some attempted manipulation of BC.
Well it seems a bit suspicious as there was no security event and it is probably one of the quietest trading times.

https://mtgox.com

(Click on the graph icon to view graph)

From what I can gather from the graph, an incredibly high volume for BTC - 70 000 BTC was traded over a 3 hour period between 5am-8am on a Saturday morning (Obv. a very quiet trading time) this drove the price from 68 to a low of 52, almost a 25% drop, the price has already recovered in the last 3 hours to $67.

In one hour nearly 39 000 BTC were traded, even on the 12th of March when they had the biggest security event of the year it didn't reach that volume.

Maybe some attempt to bring down the price with all the bad Cyprus news going on?
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:25 AM   #23
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It comes from illiquidity. The market is not able to absorb big orders.
There is a mania going on in BC, just read this in addition what I've already written in this thread:
Quote :
Man Lists Bungalow for Bitcoins
Taylor More is selling his family's bungalow with an asking price of $405,000 (that's Canadian dollars) or 5,521 Bitcoins. He would rather have the Bitcoins.

The two bedroom room and one bath bungalow in Alberta, Canada, sits on 2.9 acres of land along the Crowsnest River. That part of the deal is easy to understand. Why More wants Bitcoins isn't.

"I just really believe in them and once I read my first article about them, I was hooked," said More, who is 22 and said he used to be a currency trader. "I can take control of my own money, I don't have to worry about the government stepping in and taking it and freezing my account."

Bitcoins are digital currency. One Bitcoin is equal to $72.50. There are no actual coins, but they have been growing in their use. Stores like Walmart even sell gift cards for Bitcoins.

"I have a few ventures that I am working on that involves Bitcoins and I am going to need a lot of Bitcoins to do them. I thought this might help Bitcoin gain some ground, once people see that you can actually buy a piece of property or a physical tangible thing," said More.

More would not specifically tell ABC News what he was working on, but did say, "Bitcoins are rather hard to get your hands on."

More's listing has only been up for a few days and there has yet to be an offer, but he is hoping that the media attention will help. "If someone had a partial payment in Bitcoins, I would be willing to negotiate, but I wouldn't turn down somebody who had cash," More said.

Charlie Shrem, CEO of BitInstant, a payment processor for Bitcoin exchanges and other merchants, describes the digital money as "both the currency unit and the payment system… It's as if cash had wings and it could fly."

"I think it would be great," Shrem said of More's real estate offer. "It would be a private transaction. He can sell his house to anyone in the world, it doesn't have to be from Canada, and it won't cost anything to move that money."
http://gma.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs...nvestment.html

Other news from some 400 years ago:
Quote :
Noblemen, citizens, farmers, mechanics, seamen, footmen, maidservants, even chimney-sweeps and old clotheswomen, dabbled in tulips. People converted their property into cash, and invested it in flowers. Houses and lands were offered for sale at ruinously low prices, or used to pay for tulips.
http://www.thetulipomania.com/

If you have invested a big chunk of your money in BC, take profits now.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:31 AM   #24
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Perhaps I am just old-fashioned, or perhaps I am simply a cranky old man, but I'll take cold hard silver over a "virtual currency" any day of the week. While I think I understand the idea and the principle behind Bit Coin, I do not trust it. All it takes is a system crash or a denial of service wide-spread attack and the system grinds to a halt. I guess I just prefer having the ability to hold a genuine bit of metal in my hand.

Either way, I am resisting this movement because I think the world would be a better place with a simple gold standard. There would be far fewer wars without fiat regimes because without resources immediately at hand, they would be too costly to wage, and the populations affected would not allow the heavy taxation required to fund war without extreme justification and the approval of the citizenry.

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Old 03-23-2013, 10:20 AM   #25
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For me Gold & Silver are the only real money & form 80% of my 'base' but even then I think that you can't have it all in one place, you have to spread it out because risk is everywhere.

Governments and the powers that be seem to have the ability to make paper markets for gold and silver, suppress them, confiscate them if needed, and will use propaganda effectively against 'hoarders' & also make it very difficult to leave the country with them. Even previous safe havens like Switzerland feel a little less safe these days from the mighty reach of foreign governments.

This does not deter me from the idea that Gold & Silver are the only real time tested money. But on top of that I feel it's also logical for me to keep some in cash, some in items for barter & for me it makes sense to put some into a digital currency. Even though it is very new and very risky. The risk-reward and advantages/disadvantages stack for me.

I also want to believe in a better future with greater peace and more personal freedom, but when I look around me I see even now, most people seem dumbed down and asleep. So I ask myself where are the most intelligent people in the world and what are they doing right now? Personally I believe a lot of the smartest people in the world are computer geeks/hacker types. Luckily these really bright people also happens to be the most aloof, work possessed, anarchist group of guys in the world. With BTC they've found something they can all believe in and can direct their combined efforts towards. I wouldn't bet against them and I also don't want to.

I'm a liberal myself not anarchist but I support the idea of competing currencies with as little government intervention as possible.
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Last edited by Unbeatable; 03-23-2013 at 10:22 AM.
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Old 03-24-2013, 06:04 PM   #26
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...

I wish Bitcoin well, but chalk me up as holder of physical precious metals over crypto-currency...

If Bitcoin presents any threat to the system THEY WILL take it down! If it remains a tiny niche, maybe THEY will just ignore it. But, I am not putting my money in it...

I do like the idea of putting some Bitcoins on a flash drive and flying them on down to Peru... But, what could I buy in Peru with Bitcoins? And whatever (imported into Peru) products would just get stuck in Peruvian Customs anyway... Customs there holds EVERY incoming package, even by mail.
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Old 03-24-2013, 06:16 PM   #27
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What happens to bitcoins if Obama hits the Internet-kill switch?
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:32 AM   #28
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I see Bitcoins are trading at $108.50 atm

Quote :
I believe the likelihood of Southern Europeans moving 600 million dollars in BC's this month > than the likelihood of a major event happening that destroys the price of BC's this month.

The price when I posted in the Cyprus thread two hours ago was $54 let's see how long it takes to either get to $108 or crashes big time.
Looks like it took 14 days to make a 100% return.

Tulip manias are great if you sell before it bursts

(Personally I actually believe bitcoin does have some utility but very, very risky. I bought in @ $36 and not planning to sell any till $150, so I might still lose my initial investment/gamble.)
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:26 AM   #29
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Good Job, unbeatable!

Re: exit strategy, why not start selling now in batches, if it is only for trade? Say, divide it into 4 tranches, sell one now (you will be almost even on your initial investment - so you can hardly loose from that point on), and sell the rest dollar-cost-averaging on your way out, as you reach your target prices? Works well for stacking, will work well for exit scenario, too - instead of trying to pick the exact top.

my $0.02

As for BC$ "fundamentals" , keep in mind that in recent weeks Mtgox has been overwhelmed with new account requests, they had a few thousands backlog with new account requests - I suppose most of that herd is rushing to buy "before it is too late". I don't see it continuing for very long, but I might be wrong of course.

Re: southern Europeans: for the Cypriots, getting your money out of the fecking bank in the first place, is the main issue, so the BC$ are of no help here. At the withdrawal rates they are allowed to, IF it was even going into BC$ in any significant amount, I don't think we would see such a crazy spike. For other southern Europeans/PIIGS - it is not difficult to move money across the borders (where BS$ would be extremely useful) - I can (still ) wire transfer online to any of the bank in Europe, no hassle at all, no need for BC$ for that.
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:45 AM   #30
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Yes you have a point.

My goal is pretty arbitrary $150 because that = +- £100
(& it would still be a tiny 1.5 billionish market cap for Bitcoin)

I intended to sell enough at that point to recoup my initial investment + a 50% return. (This would let me get a great return (to buy moar silver) and keep 60% of the coins I initially purchased in Bitcoin)

But there's no reason I can't break it up over 4 trades to avg. a $150 sell price. Yes that would make sure I dont lose everything if it crashes before $150.

Thanks, good advice!

Edit: Yes, but I think we're getting to the point where no bank is safe, so they're splitting up their savings between multiple accounts, & also buying gold & silver. But at this point Bitcoin doesn't seem much more risky than a traditional bank and they might get a great return to boot. So I can see a lot of younger people putting 2.5% of their savings into Bitcoin.

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Old 04-09-2013, 08:05 AM   #31
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This thing is getting way way way too popular. I think the risk of government getting involved is now high enough that I think it's best to step away. Time to sell fellas... 5x since Feb... that is Tulip style mania there.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...oin-passes-200

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Old 04-09-2013, 08:09 AM   #32
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Shorting BTC with a 6-9 month timeframe could be a great winner.
I couldn't find a proper vehicle, though. I'm reluctant to do it outside of an exchange with a peer who I don't know.
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Old 04-09-2013, 08:52 AM   #33
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I tend to agree SA. There's regulatory risk out the wazoo on these for one thing.
For another, while the coins themselves are very difficult (effectively impossible?) to fake, the attacks on the sites that allow exchange are pretty serious (and who knows who is doing it? .gov? Who has a motive?).
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:04 AM   #34
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If I was .gov and worried about BTC, I'd push this parabolic move the best I can, ie be a buyer via the PPT. The inevitable crash is going to scare so many people out that they're not going to return soon.
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:24 AM   #35
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I was planning to sell a little @ $150 but haven't sold yet as I became aware there was a huge 10 000+ backlog of accounts waiting for verification on the main exchange, and a lot of big players in there.

In the last week they've taken on more staff, beefed up security etc.
So a lot of new approvals early this week hence the price rise.
But still a big backlog from what I gather.

Mtgox handling most of the trades is a major centralised weakness but the old tactic of selling coins and then attacking the exchange to cause a panic sell-off is almost expected now, so less likely to have the same effect.

Last edited by Unbeatable; 04-09-2013 at 09:28 AM. Reason: Took out inaccurate statement
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:34 AM   #36
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I think people are saying "he who defects first, defects best" on this.

While I'm interested in bitcoin as something not fiddled with by the fiat PTB so much, I'm waiting for more maturity in it before I mess with it. I often miss some of the huge spikes in new things because of that, but I do fine catching the "middle of the big moves". It's a way to ride along with and profit from the manipulation moves the big boys create.

When I get huge profit right off - a "too good to be true" situation in my judgement, I get out, as often as not - it WAS too good to be true, and goes right back down (or up if I'm short). Despite the likely unsafety of cash in the bank, it's still safer than a lot of other things for now. No one gets broke banking the profits (so far).

But that's me and my trading style. It's not the only valid style by any means, just the one that suits me personally.
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:43 AM   #37
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Just take a look at google trends:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin
The first spike in June 2011 corresponded with a parabolic price move, too.
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:53 AM   #38
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Despite the difficulty of shutting down Bitcoin, it is also very hard to for the Fed to overtly target Bitcoin unless they do very effective 'terror'coin type PR first.

If they target Bitcoin without doing that first, then many people will realise what we already know - if they are targeting tiny markey cap digital currencies then they are definitely suppressing Gold & Silver too.

Also at the moment I believe the silver market is so tight & with the Tax haven info released etc. Cyprus etc. It might be in their interest to divert interest away from PM's in the short term.
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Old 04-09-2013, 09:59 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by swissaustrian View Post:
Just take a look at google trends:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin
The first spike in June 2011 corresponded with a parabolic price move, too.
And that parabolic price move would have continued if the exchange wasn't hacked.

For me it's a game of are the odds that 'they' can crash/shut it down in next 2 weeks >50%? If the odds are less than that it's a buy imo because the price will double+ in that time otherwise.
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Old 04-09-2013, 10:10 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Unbeatable View Post:
And that parabolic price move would have continued if the exchange wasn't hacked.

For me it's a game of are the odds that 'they' can crash/shut it down in next 2 weeks >50%? If the odds are less than that it's a buy imo because the price will double+ in that time otherwise.
Such a hack is just trigger. BTC is due for a massive correction by any metric.
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