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Old 04-09-2013, 11:30 AM   #41
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Recognizing the above picture for what it is is how I make a lot of my trades. Just work with the over-reaction of the herd, which is eminently predictable. Just grab the middle of those crazy moves and get back out till sanity (well...not that simple, it's never truly sane) returns.
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Old 04-09-2013, 11:57 AM   #42
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DCFusor I like your strategy & SA's trading analysis (which I actually have a lot of respect for) but not for new technology/stocks/industry plays.

Because your potential returns decrease over time because as the Market Cap gets bigger the amount of new money required to produce similar returns obviously grows while conversely the threat to Bitcoin from governments only gets bigger as it becomes more of a threat.

Of course even without the technical/government threats there is obviously a lot of speculative money in there and I wouldn't be surprised to see major up and down 25%+ swings in the short term.
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Old 04-09-2013, 07:33 PM   #43
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I was amused by a comment on a ZH article -

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...-bubble?page=1

Dewey Cheatum Howe Tue, 04/09/2013 - 18:46 | 3428756

Quote :
Here is a thought for you blind worshippers of shiny things. Why don't you set up your own equivalent crypto-currency style gold exchange, set up the rules and only use the currency as a stock equivalent. If it is fair and unmanipulated, people will jump out of the etf crimex market calling in their gold paper to reinvest in your exchange instead. It will break the price manipulation by pulling all the players out of the market except for the manipulators. I bet they have the gold and silver so rehypothecated it will only take about a 5% or so call in on the paper to crush it. The price of your precious will then revalue accordingly based of free market pricing mechanisms. If it proves better than bitcoin so fucking be it. That is free market, trust will be the ultimate decider as long as the playing field is level. That is something we should all strive for here regardless of any other differences.
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Old 04-09-2013, 08:43 PM   #44
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...except if you want to start your own exchange, you will not be alowed to
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Old 04-10-2013, 07:06 AM   #45
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Haha... Some folks were trying to set up a fully allocated exchange, but it was sabotaged. You gotta jump through a lot of hoops and FedGov red tape to set up something like this and it takes capital - a lot of capital.
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Old 04-10-2013, 09:24 AM   #46
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Hi guys

I was just wondering: technically, it would be extremely difficult to corrupt BitCoins. But rest assured, if BCs get any traction n the mainstream, because they are intrinsically outside of any centralized control, obviously, TPTB will do everything to bring them to heel.

Thus, I was just thinking about figuring out non-technical ways of taking them down. Put down your thoughts, kindly. My thoughts how it could have been attempted:
1. Smear campaign (mentioned before) - "only drug dealers and criminals are using it"
2. Security issues - and I am not talking about the protocol itself, but rather hitting big targets - like mtgox etc. Destroying trust that way.
3. Outlaw it outright, with some strawman explanation.
4. Fractional reserve lending, with BitCoin backing (hell, why not...)
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Old 04-10-2013, 11:15 AM   #47
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Step 1: I think they'll raid the premises of MTGOX on some faulty charge. (Like they went into NZ and raided & arrested that file sharing guy.)
Step 2: They'll shut down or block known websites like they did with poker & file sharing sites.
Step 3: They'll make it illegal for banks to knowingly process Bitcoin transactions
(Like they did with poker in US)

Shutting down MTGOX would be the big one in the short term, it's one of the few reasons I want to cash out a bit, so that I can buy again on the 70-80% price dip when they do.

Fortunately I think gold & silver are much bigger problems for them in the short term.

(MTGOX also has a lot of tools in their arsenal now though. The rapid growth overwhelmed them initially but I think they've beefed up now.
1. They can block accounts (each one is manually verified) that they think is part of the sell massive while Ddos MTGOX.
2. They can take a few days to approve big accounts/buyers. In the case of an attack/artificial sell off they can approve lots at once so that there's a whole bunch of new money/buyers to counteract sell off.
3. Lots of top hackers seeing their net worth increase by small fortunes everyday. In their interest now to use their time, skills, resources to protect MTGOX. Counter-attacks, early warnings.
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Old 04-10-2013, 01:49 PM   #48
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Quote :
Bitcoin Tumbles 25% In Hours
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...mbles-25-hours

Um, as I said they have it all under control, lots of tools in their arsenal, nothing to see here, um...

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Old 04-10-2013, 01:58 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by DSAbug View Post:
Time to sell fellas... 5x since Feb... that is Tulip style mania there.

Well.. that was timely..
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:05 PM   #50
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Good timing DSA.

I'm not selling any myself, but may regret that decision soon enough
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:13 PM   #51
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If you get a bounce, bail.. This is silver in April 2011.. Way too many specs.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:22 PM   #52
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Sadly there are no safe (executionwise) ways to short the crash.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:34 PM   #53
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Just read the chatlog here: https://btc-e.com/exchange/btc_usd
The damage has been done.
There will be a technical reaction to the upside, but this is gonna take longer to heal.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:36 PM   #54
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Last Price: 186.766 USD
Low: 123.016 USD
High: 259 USD
Volume: 19907 BTC / 4103421 USD
Server Time: 10.04.13 22:34
https://btc-e.com/exchange/btc_usd

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Old 04-10-2013, 02:38 PM   #55
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From the chatlog
Quote :
therustytrombone: it is clear that 99.9% of people here have never dealt with a securities market, it's hilariouis
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:40 PM   #56
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This exchange is offering EUR/USD at 1.20:
https://btc-e.com/exchange/eur_usd
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:46 PM   #57
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Mtgox looks a bit suspicious, low volumes.
Main forum is down.

Could be fake. Like where they're in the elevator but they switch the camera to make it look like it's empty.
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Old 04-10-2013, 02:47 PM   #58
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https://btc-e.com seems to have a way better technology than Mtgox. Liquidity also looks acceptable.
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:22 PM   #59
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I read an article on ZH about a discussion over using leverage with bitcoin. Once you begin adding more imaginary paper to anything, in my eyes at least, it has been corrupted.

Disclosure: I think bitcoin will be a distant memory in the near term.
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Old 04-10-2013, 03:58 PM   #60
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I just stand by my trading rule - if it's too good to be true, get out, because it IS too good to be true much longer. What constitutes too good is of course a judgement call, but...that's the key to all trading - better judgement than the next guy at the table.
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