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Old 11-26-2011, 10:29 AM   #1
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China easing rules on One Child policy

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One of China's most populous regions has relaxed some of the rules enforcing the country's controversial one-child policy.

The central province of Henan - with a population of more than 90 million people - is the last in China to ease the ban on families having more than one child.

Rural families with a girl will be allowed to have a second try for a boy and couples where both partners are themselves an only child will be allowed to have two children.
http://rthk.hk/rthk/news/englishnews..._56_800843.htm

From what I understand, they are facing a Japanese style demographic problem with a severely unbalanced aging population (which of course leads to economic stress).
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Old 11-26-2011, 12:42 PM   #2
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The biggest problem facing China in that regard is based on how wealth opportunities are distributed throughout the economy, as massive capital expenditures are concentrated in major cities and Economic Development Zones, which are concentrated in areas located nearest to the eastern seaboard, leaving most of western China far less developed. This has caused a MASSIVE exodus of from the poorer and more rural areas, especially in western farming regions - to the tune of hundreds of millions.

Basically, the youngest, strongest and brightest are abandoning the farms and heading for the major cities, leaving the very young and elderly to tend to and grow the crops.

The reality of the One Child policy is that it was never strictly enforced in the rural areas, and exceptions were routinely made - because penalties and tax advantages weren't a big mitigating factor for the poor anyway, and there really is a need for more labor in the western and more rural farming regions. The policy is also not a concern for the very wealthy Chinese (of which there are MANY), who can afford the penalties, and who don't rely on whatever advantages might have been offered by the government for having only one child.
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Old 11-26-2011, 02:55 PM   #3
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"An Army marches but on its' stomach." An old Napoleon quote. I believe that big governments and TPTB view people as a renewable resource. The people grow up to be producers of some sort, earning a living that is taxable. In the process the people make more people. Renewable, sustainable. Sure there are some losses, but the attrition never outweighs the positive gains. More or less, procreation of the species is the meaning of life. Anything we do beyond that is just the extra part that we get to enjoy.
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Old 11-26-2011, 03:18 PM   #4
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I said the USA should have done this in '73 when Roe v.s. Wade came down.
THAT is the reason for the SS/Medicare debacle,lack of taxes needed to support our country.
You do not (except under threat of life to Mother), kill, or murder innocent babies.
Look where it's gotten us.

Importing foreigners(and a lot not wanting to assimilate),when we HAD 50 Million natural born Americans that would have been the NORMAL answer.
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Old 11-26-2011, 05:39 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
From what I understand, they are facing a Japanese style demographic problem with a severely unbalanced aging population (which of course leads to economic stress).
Also, the up and coming generation is disproportionately male due to the cultural preference for boys that has caused countless baby girls to be aborted. So, not only will the next generation not be large enough, it will be filled with men unable to find wives. Combine that with a massive real estate bubble that must pop at some point and China's future is not looking so great. Unfortunately, when the bubble bursts it will probably be fairly bloody.
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Old 11-26-2011, 06:50 PM   #6
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AFAIK, China is on par with Japan with regards to xenophobic tendencies discouraging legal immigration. Steven, maybe you know better as you have traveled to (or are currently in) China.

The problem with population metrics (retirees vs. working) is that its not something that can be corrected quickly. If you get unbalanced, it takes a few decades to correct, and that's likely too late to solve the economic stress for the shrinking work force.
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Old 11-26-2011, 10:07 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
AFAIK, China is on par with Japan with regards to xenophobic tendencies discouraging legal immigration. Steven, maybe you know better as you have traveled to (or are currently in) China.
A lot of people don't realize this, but the Chinese population has a wide ethnic variety, although the overwhelming majority are of Han descent. That is a enormous problem in China, because the Chinese government sees ethnic differences as possible grounds for uprisings and breaking up the nation along ethnic boundaries. Solution? Set up an economic zone, pull an Israel and send in a swarm of settlers of Han descent to help populate that region. Intermarrying happens in those regions and ethnic lines become blurred as a result.

So in a strange way, this actually makes Chinese far less xenophobic than Japan, I think. They have their own brands of racism for sure, but nothing like Japan's. I can marry a Chinese woman and the Chinese would allow me to immigrate and even take on citizenship. That isn't usually the problem, as most westerners want to retain their citizenship, and run into difficulties with their home governments (especially the US) granting citizenship to their spouses (I have one friend who has been waiting seven years to get his wife into the US).
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