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Old 05-29-2012, 03:41 PM   #1
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Wow, Faceplant got absolutely spanked today. This stock will almost certainly revert to its natural mean, which approaches zero.
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Old 05-29-2012, 04:33 PM   #2
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The analysis I saw showed it should be $4-5 based on fundamentals, that is, if the profits/margin don't keep going down like they did last quarter...nice multi-bagger if the shorting costs aren't too bad.

When an IPO comes out this late in the game, and for a company that obviously doesn't need the money to invest in more business, it's pretty plain that this was merely the insiders cashing out - and they'd know better than most what's ahead for the outfit.

I also see it as a market top, or nearly - this is based on historical data on big IPOs like this one - they nearly always manage to time them that way.
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Old 05-30-2012, 07:27 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by DCFusor View Post:
The analysis I saw showed it should be $4-5 based on fundamentals, that is, if the profits/margin don't keep going down like they did last quarter...nice multi-bagger if the shorting costs aren't too bad.

When an IPO comes out this late in the game, and for a company that obviously doesn't need the money to invest in more business, it's pretty plain that this was merely the insiders cashing out - and they'd know better than most what's ahead for the outfit.

I also see it as a market top, or nearly - this is based on historical data on big IPOs like this one - they nearly always manage to time them that way.
Consider an IPO for any company from the initial entrepreneur's perspective. Do you go public when your company is overvalued or undervalued? I read a paper on this subject this past week. On average, companies underperform their competitors in the 3-5 years following their IPO.
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