Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > Fiat Ponzi

Like Tree8Likes

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 01-04-2016, 11:38 AM   #1
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Fed lineup for 2016

Quote :
...
Let’s look at the FOMC scorecard and see what it can tell us about future Fed policy.

Right now there are two vacancies on the board of governors. This means that there are only five governors on the FOMC: Janet Yellen, Stanley Fischer, Lael Brainard, Jay Powell and Dan Tarullo.

The other five seats are taken up by the following regional reserve bank presidents: Bill Dudley (New York), Charles Evans (Chicago), Dennis Lockhart (Atlanta), John Williams (San Francisco) and Jeffrey Lacker (Richmond).

For all practical purposes, the center of gravity comes down to Yellen, Fischer and Dudley. They are the “Big Three.”

The other governors (Brainard, Tarullo and Powell) are relatively new. Jay Powell has been relatively quiet on monetary policy. Lael Brainard and Dan Tarullo shocked markets this week by breaking with Janet Yellen.
...
Among the regional reserve bank presidents, Evans is an outspoken dove and Lacker is an outspoken hawk. They cancel each other out.

Lockhart and Williams are both “moderates” who will also go along with Chair Yellen.
...
This lineup changes again next month.

Evans, Lockhart, Williams and Lacker will go off the FOMC at that point. They will be replaced by Loretta Mester (Cleveland), Eric Rosengren (Boston), James Bullard (St. Louis) and Esther George (Kansas City).

Once again, the regional reserve bank presidents are split. Mester, George and Bullard are all hawks, while Rosengren is a dove. However, Rosengren is not as outspoken and does not have the intellectual firepower that Evans brought to the debate this year.

The line-up is changing but the confusion continues. The governors are more dovish (because of the Brainard and Tarullo revolt against Yellen). The regional reserve bank presidents are more hawkish (because Evans is leaving and three hawks are joining). It’s a close call, but overall the FOMC looks slightly more hawkish beginning in 2016.

But only slightly. The entire FOMC, governors and presidents, is “data dependent.” Whatever their biases and previously stated views, they will carefully weigh the data and trends at each FOMC meeting. The FOMC will take the process one meeting and one data point at a time.

The next two FOMC meetings are Jan. 27-28 and Mar. 17-18. If there is another rate increase, it is likely to have devastating effects on emerging markets and lead to increased tensions in the currency wars and a further correction in the U.S. stock market.

It is possible that the Fed will raise rates at these meetings. It depends on if there is any strength in the data.

Bottom line: My forecast is that the economic data will remain weak and the Fed’s next move will be toward easing, probably by mid-2016. If the data are stronger than I expect, the Fed will raise rates further.
http://dailyreckoning.com/the-new-pl...-2016-edition/

tl;dr - 2016 FOMC voting members will be (more) biased towards raising rates. Economic data might not allow it though.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2016, 08:59 AM   #2
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Quote :
...
While Janet Yellen was careful to say that future Fed policy is data dependent and not on a set schedule, she did, for all intents and purposes, lay out a schedule based on her forecast for economic growth and inflation. The implied tightening cycle for the target Fed funds rate is 100 basis points per year for three years (through the end of 2018).

In keeping with the Fed’s declared desire not to disrupt markets, it is also likely that each target rate increase will be 25 basis points, the same measure Greenspan used in his belated tightening cycle from 2004 to 2006, albeit with a slower tempo.

There are eight FOMC meetings per year. Four of those occasions (every other meeting) include press conferences that are helpful for explaining Fed actions. Yellen, and before her, Bernanke puts a big emphasis on communication and transparency with regard to Fed policy, part of their misguided notions of setting expectations.

Raising rates 100 basis points per year in 25 basis point increments means four rate hikes per year, most likely at those FOMC meetings with press conferences.
...
The one thing we can be reasonably certain is that this will not happen. The Fed’s expected path is based on internal models of the interaction of labor markets, growth and inflation. These models are badly flawed and obsolete.

For evidence, we need look no further than the fact that Fed one-year forward growth forecasts have been incorrect by orders of magnitude for nine straight years. A belief that the Fed forecast for 2016 is close to accurate represents the triumph of hope over experience.
...
The Fed will likely raise rates in March and June 2016 as expected. That much is baked in the pie. Yellen waited too long to launch a tightening cycle simply to turn on a dime. In any case, the Fed rarely reverses course easily, and usually favors long periods of inaction between course changes.

By late summer or early fall of 2016, global weakness and possibly a U.S. recession will be the dominant stories. This recession is already apparent to many observers, but it will take more time for that reality to sink in at the Fed.

The normal course of policy at that point would be to cut rates to mitigate the impact of the slowdown. But, a rate cut in September 2016 will be politically impossible coming just 48 days before the U.S. presidential election.

Yellen is a well-known liberal Democrat. Any effort by her to boost the economy (via portfolio channel effects) just before the election will invite a withering political backlash from the Republican nominee. Yellen is already party to a criminal investigation of insider trading at the Fed and has no interest in that kind of added scrutiny.

This means the earliest rate cut will be December 14, 2016, the first post-election FOMC meeting.

The most Yellen could do to ease in September is offer forward guidance that the Fed will not increase rates for an extended period, and plans to remain “patient” in considering further increases.

There are two risks to this forecast. The first is that the recession data is overwhelming by spring causing the Fed to hold off on the June rate hike. The second is that the Fed hikes again in September because not raising is seen a form of ease with adverse political repercussions for the Fed.
...
http://dailyreckoning.com/three-and-done/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 08:41 AM   #3
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
No rate hike announced as expected. No accommodation announced as some wanted.

Quote :
...
Indeed, if one had to summarize Yellen's message to the S&P, it would probably look as follows: "you haven't dropped enough for the Fed to change course."
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...t-go-full-dove
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-11-2016, 08:48 AM   #4
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Quote :
... If the S&P hits 1,690 by next week or 1,615 by March 11 (just ahead of the next FOMC meeting), the Fed may sit up and take notice. Short of that, the Fed doesn’t care. They have other policy goals, and will remain on track to raise interest rates.

The “plunge protection team” is on leave of absence. Investors are on their own.
...
More: http://dailyreckoning.com/markets-th...and-asymmetry/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2016, 10:25 AM   #5
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Quote :
... here’s the difference between helicopter money and quantitative easing: In QE, the Fed prints the money and uses it to buy existing bonds from the banks. Then the money usually sits there in the banks. I’ve explained how that policy has failed.

With helicopter money, though, Congress spends the money. It covers its deficit with more borrowing, and the Fed prints the money to cover the borrowing. It’s essentially monetizing the debt. The difference is that in the case of QE, there’s no extra spending. In the case of helicopter money, there is because Congress spends all the money.

That means, in the final analysis, helicopter money is the recipe for inflation.

This policy is coming sooner than you may think…
http://dailyreckoning.com/helicopter...hers-momentum/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-18-2016, 01:09 PM   #6
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,995
Liked: 882 times
no risk of us poor plebs being given anything at this stage as its only right that our dear leaders make such important decisions.

Also goes to demonstrate that there was never any need to tax us, as they could have printed all gov expenditure to date.
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2016, 12:11 AM   #7
PM Bug Supporter
 
DoChenRollingBearing's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: SE USA
Posts: 1,275
Liked: 691 times
Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
no risk of us poor plebs being given anything at this stage as its only right that our dear leaders make such important decisions.

Also goes to demonstrate that there was never any need to tax us, as they could have printed all gov expenditure to date.

Yup, rblong2us gets that 100% right. They do not need taxation of us as they can create the money from thin air. Taxation must be more of a means of control...

This whole NIRP is perverting all kinds of economic matters, I should write a friggin' article. Burns me up. They want to track us, and nick us the 3% for every transaction (by credit card). So many awful ugly little twists coming out of NIRP, seems I read a new one every day.

I am just going to lay even lower, and not play.

Gold, bitchez.
PMBug likes this.
DoChenRollingBearing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2016, 07:43 AM   #8
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
...
Also goes to demonstrate that there was never any need to tax us, as they could have printed all gov expenditure to date.
Well no. Unfettered monetization leads to hyperinflation/currency crisis and that's where we are headed if Rickards is correct about the Fed/gov plan. A growing debt bubble fed by monetization will become a death spiral that we can never stop (won't be able to pay the interest on the debt [without monetization] after the event horizon is passed). This will naturally lead to loss of faith in the currency as we are going to need ever increasing amounts.
rblong2us likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2016, 07:55 AM   #9
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Rickards isn't alone in his estimation:
Quote :
Bridgewater's Ray Dalio has argued that central banks' ability to invigorate economic growth has atrophied, and he predicts a new era of radical monetary policy possibly involving "helicopter money."
...
He therefore predicts that central banks will eventually have to usher in what he calls "monetary policy 3" ... which will more directly and forcefully encourage spending.

The Bridgewater founder says this third era of monetary policy will range from central banks directly financing government spending through electronic money-printing to what the famous economist Milton Friedman coined "helicopter money" in 1969 -- in other words, central banks disbursing cash directly to households. ...
http://gata.org/node/16202
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-19-2016, 01:15 PM   #10
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,995
Liked: 882 times
Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
Well no. Unfettered monetization leads to hyperinflation/currency crisis and that's where we are headed if Rickards is correct about the Fed/gov plan. A growing debt bubble fed by monetization will become a death spiral that we can never stop (won't be able to pay the interest on the debt [without monetization] after the event horizon is passed). This will naturally lead to loss of faith in the currency as we are going to need ever increasing amounts.

Yes Rickards sees it but if the rest are buying into the helicopter concept then there is no justification for taxation.
This apparently was the buzz at Davos a couple of weeks ago, so the experts must have thought it through.

The strategy of all printing at approximately the same rate, taking turns to lead so it looks like there is a forex market and suppressing anything that might show the effect, makes perfect sense.
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2016, 11:24 AM   #11
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Rickards warning that the Fed is going to raise rates even though it will be a disaster (not TM Donald Trump):
Quote :
...
The market does not expect a rate hike in March. In fact, the market is giving low odds of any rate hikes in all of 2016. Meanwhile, the Fed is moving at full throttle toward a rate hike.

There are only three possible outcomes. The first is that the market gets safely out of the way by adjusting expectations in the next two weeks. The second is that Yellen grabs the brake and slows down the Cannonball Express by signaling that the Fed will not raise rates. The third possible outcome is a train wreck that will roil markets.

Right now a train wreck looks like the most likely outcome. Here’s why…

Global markets have been in turmoil since the Fed’s last rate hike in December. This is because the Fed tightened into what was already a weak economy. If the Fed continues tightening, a U.S. recession later this year is highly likely.

The Fed had its own reasons for tightening. They wanted to avoid making asset bubbles any bigger. (Bubbles in stock and real estate markets had been inflating for years under the Fed’s zero interest rate policy.) The Fed needed to maintain its institutional credibility after promising for over a year that they would begin to raise rates in 2015.

And, just as Casey Jones did not see danger until it was too late, Yellen does not see a recession. Her forecasts, using badly flawed models such as the Phillips Curve, NAIRU, and FRB/US, are signaling steady growth, tighter labor markets, and inflation just around the corner.

The Fed has not entirely ignored recent market turmoil. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made reference to it in their January statement. And several Fed officials have echoed those concerns in public pronouncements and speeches since then.

The problem is that the markets have overinterpreted these supposedly dovish statements. What Fed statements actually say is that they are watching the turmoil closely. At no time has the Fed said they would deviate from their prior course. It would be easy enough to do so if that’s what the Fed wanted.

Saying you are watching something is not the same as saying you are changing what you already planned to do. The plain implication of recent Fed statements is that financial conditions will have to get worse than we have already seen to cause the Fed not to raise rates in March.

The market’s dovish interpretation of Fed statements is wishful thinking. In fact, the market’s dovish view has made it more, not less likely the Fed will raise rates in March. The dovish interpretation caused equity markets to rally the past two weeks in expectation of no rate hike. The rally eases financial conditions, which makes it easier for the Fed to raise rates.

What would it take in the next two weeks for the Fed not to raise rates? There are three scenarios. A plunge in the S&P Index to 1650 (a 15% decline from current levels) would stop the Fed in its tracks. If the February jobs report (due this Friday, March 4) produces fewer than 100,000 jobs or if unemployment rises to 5.0% or higher, that would give the Fed pause.

Finally, a full-scale financial panic comparable to the Asian crisis of 1997 I discussed with Michael Covel this week would delay a rate hike. (The Asian Crisis of 1997 was the last time the Fed did “one and done.”)

Right now none of those scenarios seems likely to emerge. The Cannonball Express is still running at top speed. If the Fed hikes rates in March when the market is not expecting it, the rapid repricing of rate hike expectations will lead to a stock market mini-crash.
...
http://dailyreckoning.com/janet-yell...nball-express/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2016, 11:34 AM   #12
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Originally Posted by Rickards :
... If the February jobs report (due this Friday, March 4) produces fewer than 100,000 jobs ...
Quote :
Jobs were good; earnings were a disaster - that's the best summary of today's jobs report.
...
The breakdown: of the 242K jobs created in February, 189K were of the minimum-wage variety, ...

In other words, a whopping 82% of jobs "created" in February were minimum wage teachers, retail trade, and waiters, bartenders and chambermaids.

What about well-paying jobs like finance, trucking, manufacturing or mining? +6K, -5K, -16K, and -18K, for a net loss of 33k jobs.

Perhaps the bigger surprise is how wage growth wasn't far worse.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...m-wage-earners

I'm going to guess that this does not meet Rickards' "Fed pause level".
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-18-2016, 10:36 AM   #13
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Quote :
...
  • FED MEDIAN FORECAST IMPLIES TWO 2016 RATE HIKES VS FOUR IN DEC
  • FED SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE TO POSE RISKS
  • FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%-0.5% AS EXPECTED
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...y-us-rate-hold

Seems the Fed is aware that their data models are not the only truth. Lots of opinion pieces being published today trying to explain/interpret the Fed's move/statement yesterday to hold rates steady even though their data met the targets they had set for a rate hike.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2016, 07:24 AM   #14
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,995
Liked: 882 times
Quote :
the debate around helicopter drops has given way to a welcome fightback from central bankers who reassert that they are never powerless to generate inflation.

Citing Milton Friedman’s maxim that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”, economist Tim Congdon is adamant that monetary policy is still the only game in town.

“Monetary policy can never – repeat, never – 'run out of ammunition'”, he says.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...you-just-dont/
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-21-2016, 06:55 PM   #15
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
Unleash the hounds!
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-08-2016, 08:16 AM   #16
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
It appears the Fed is getting ready to make a move...

Quote :
... yesterday the Fed announced that this coming Monday, April 11, the Fed will hold a closed meeting "under expedited procedures" during which the Board of Governors will review and determine advance and discount rates charged by the Fed banks.

As a reminder, the last time the Fed held such a meeting was on November 21, less than a month before it launched its first rate hike in years.
...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-discuss-rates

Moar QE / helicopter money, reversal in rate hike messaging or something else?
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-09-2016, 01:01 PM   #17
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,995
Liked: 882 times
They claim to be meeting to review interest rates

presumably they can conference call as often as they feel the need and the actual meetings are just public ratification of what they have already decided ?

So what makes them announce a closed meeting under expedited procedures ?

Most pre announced implied important events tend to be overblown and amount to nothing much ........

The real question might be 'what are they hoping to distract us from ?'
PMBug likes this.
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2016, 08:25 AM   #18
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
I can only guess that it's done to provide the market with some guidance that they are re-evaluating the path forward.
rblong2us likes this.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-11-2016, 05:13 PM   #19
Yellow Jacket
 
rblong2us's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: off world
Posts: 1,995
Liked: 882 times
heh forward guidance Bug ....... brilliant idea !

this note showed up suggesting that theres something brewing -


the Finance Minister of Italy called an EMERGENCY MEETING of Bankers for Monday in Rome. He made clear that Italian banks have 360 Billion in BAD LOANS against Bank Capital of only 50 Billion. He also bluntly stated that Monday’s meeting was a “last resort” to save Italy’s Banks!
PMBug likes this.
__________________
if it cant be done with a digger .... it cant be done
rblong2us is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-19-2016, 09:47 AM   #20
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,085
Liked: 2456 times
All year long we keep hearing people say the Fed is going to raise rates (and we're still waiting). Same old, same old:
Quote :
...
With the Fed’s next policy meeting looming this week, hedge funds are exiting from gold. Speculators cut their bets on a bullion rally by the most in more than three months. Holdings in global exchange-traded funds backed by the metal are down from a three-year high in August. Aggregate open interest in New York futures is mired in the longest slump since May.

Speculation is mounting that Fed officials, in a statement scheduled for release on Sept. 21, will signal that higher US interest rates are on the way. That’s bad news for gold, which thrives as an alternative asset. Through Friday, the metal had surged 24% for the year as the policy makers declined to raise borrowing costs.
...
http://www.mineweb.com/news-fast-new...d-view-shifts/
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Grading 2016 Kangaroos AgStacks63 Silver Bug 2 09-24-2015 09:49 AM
2016 Silver Kangaroo AgStacks63 Silver Bug 2 09-23-2015 11:46 AM
Petition: US Mint needs to improve gold lineup Vocal Coin Collectors PM Bug 7 05-01-2014 08:27 AM
The Banksters Are Now Setting Up the Crash of 2016 Penn STS 0 12-03-2013 07:41 PM
Ron Paul On Gold, Detroit Bankruptcy, And Rand 2016 for President jprich16 Gold Bug 0 07-25-2013 07:21 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:34 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.