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Old 10-09-2014, 02:58 PM   #1
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Final phase?

These wild swings in stocks remind me of both '08 and the dot-com crash. We had huge price swings for a while before the bottom just fell completely out. With the feds releasing the doves, the stock marker rejoiced, but twenty four hours later, we're down over 300 on the Dow. I hope shit comes down gradually from these ridiculous levels, but I fear a panic sell-off when Ebola starts to spread in the US. Now, a Brit that didn't travel to any affected nations, nor interact with any African people has the disease, and people are starting to get really frightened.

There is still six weeks before the election and if Ebola gets a foothold here, the dems will suffer staggering losses IMHO. This clueless president is simply sticking his head in the sand when he needs to be proactive and involved. Instead, he's distant and dismissive. Even his high level appointees are shaking their heads in disbelief over his muted responses to recent crisis matters.
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Old 10-09-2014, 03:09 PM   #2
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not really that volatile in the big scheme of things but certainly a bit more than the 'managers' have achieved in recent times.

Suggests things could be getting unstable but theres altogether too many shouting 'fire'

.... I wonder why ? ....
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Old 10-09-2014, 04:17 PM   #3
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When the big money started pulling out of the market, I started feeling like something was going to go down. Wild swings are what happened in fall of '08, and then it was mostly all down days from there till she bottomed out.
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Old 10-09-2014, 07:22 PM   #4
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I've been waiting over a year for it to pop. I thought it was likely to happen last summer when it seemed invading Syria was a sure thing, thinking that would spike oil prices and in turn send economic activity down. There are so many potential triggers to consider right now between Syria, Ukraine, Ebola, ISIS, and the upcoming mid-term election that anyting could set it off at any point in time.

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Now, a Brit that didn't travel to any affected nations, nor interact with any African people has the disease, and people are starting to get really frightened.
Maybe he did come in contact with someone, or secondary contact, and just didn't know it. Granted, if Ebola become airborn it will be a true SHTF. And if we weren't the dumbest country on earth, we would have already stopped all travel to and from the region (not just the countries, but general region), cut off all import/export to them, and closed up the borders.

Or maybe, Ebola will be the .gov's ticket to a lock down police state with approval from the peasantry.
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Old 10-10-2014, 07:26 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
These wild swings in stocks remind me of both '08 and the dot-com crash. We had huge price swings for a while before the bottom just fell completely out. With the feds releasing the doves, the stock marker rejoiced, but twenty four hours later, we're down over 300 on the Dow.:
As noted in other posts, 300 pts is not a large price swing. It's only about 2%. Large price swings tend to be over 10% and the crashes in 1929, 1987, 1997, & 2008 all had a 40% crash from their highs 56 days earlier.

To the best of my knowledge, there has never been a short term (under 2 months) crash exceeding 40%. I am not where I can do any research, but I believe you won't find many daily crashes over 10% and probably none over 15%.
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Old 10-12-2014, 10:46 AM   #6
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...

IIRC, the October 1987 crash was 22% in one day.

I was working in DC that day in an "incubator office". Across the hall, a start-up brokerage was tracking the stock market all day. Every half hour or so I went over to see what the damage was. Very ugly! Especially the last hour or so.

When I got on the subway to take me back, NO ONE on the train was talking about the market or even seemed to have a clue.

Hmm. Kind of reminds me of what the government types are saying/doing about Ebola.
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Old 10-16-2014, 07:06 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
...

IIRC, the October 1987 crash was 22% in one day.
Quite possible. I don't remember how much down on that day. What I do remember is that I was in Austin, Texas on that day. And that the market lows on that day were down almost 40% from their recent highs 56 days earlier.

I also made it a point to be back in Austin, Texas on the same day in 2008 so I could say I that I was there for two stock market crashes. When I say 'same day' I mean the same day as the low, not the same calendar day as one was on Monday, 19 October 1987 and the other was on Friday, 24 October 2008. I was in Austin BOTH times for one day only.

As noted in another post, I do not expect an major dump this year since nothing lines up correctly for one. However, a minor dump, possibly bottoming out next Monday, 20 October 2014, is still in the cards.
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