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Old 10-27-2015, 08:50 AM   #21
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If oil stays around $50 a barrel, most countries in the region will run out of cash in five years or less, warned a dire report from the International Monetary Fund this week. That includes OPEC leader Saudi Arabia as well as Oman and Bahrain.
...
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, needs to sell oil at around $106 to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates. The kingdom barely has enough fiscal buffers to survive five years of $50 oil, the IMF said.

...



...
Iran's break-even oil price is estimated at $72 and it could survive cheap oil for less than 10 years, the IMF estimates. It's a rosier outlook compared to its neighbors. But Iran's outlook is clouded by potential sanctions relief (which hasn't come yet) and a surge in oil production from its nuclear deal with the West.

Iraq has virtually no fiscal buffer remaining, according to the IMF. The country is grappling with internal strife and has lost large swaths of land to ISIS.

"Violence increasingly affects civilians, and has a particularly adverse effect on confidence and expectations, and consequently on economic activity," the IMF warned.

Bahrain is also under great financial pressure, with the likelihood of also running out of options in less than five years. The country already has lots of debt and has been running deficits for several years in a row.

"They are in a relatively tight spot. They are going to have to undertake a more significant tightening," said Jason Tuvey, a Middle East economist at Capital Economics.

However, a handful of countries are well positioned to face the storm. Topping that list are Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. That's partially because these countries don't need sky-high oil prices to balance their budgets.

Kuwait's break-even oil price is estimated by the IMF at just $49, or just a tad higher than current levels. The magic number is believed to be $56 in Qatar, the host of the 2022 World Cup, while the UAE needs $73 oil.

But these three countries have built up mountains of oil money that protect them during the leaner times. The IMF said the UAE has enough fiscal buffers to withstand $50 oil for nearly 30 years. Qatar and Kuwait can sustain cheap oil for almost 25 years.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/25/inve...c-middle-east/

Assuming the theory posited earlier re: Saudi & US driving the price down to pressure Iran/Russia is correct, this IMF report is missing a key data point - how long can Russia endure these prices?
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Old 10-27-2015, 01:06 PM   #22
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When the ME runs out of cash, that's when we see the SHTF. That my friends is when we see all out war. Those rag heads will burn the middle east to the ground when the sheiks stop handing out goodies and it will happen all of a sudden. Then, they will set Europe on fire.

Wait for it, because it will happen sooner than later.

All they have to do to raise oil prices back up to a hundred a barrel is stop a quarter of their wells for a while. That's it. But they won't do it. Why? Greed.
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Old 11-09-2015, 07:38 AM   #23
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Oil Price

Well Oil is drastic. I say primarily Saudi Arabia because they are the one member of OPEC that has enough money to wait out low oil prices. Beleaguered member countries like Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, and Nigeria are begging for oil production cuts to raise prices. Looking at the OPEC behaviour I think we can expect a raise in oil price keeping in mind major oil producing countries trying to do the same. Any way to go around that will be a boost to US. Keeping in mind analyst prediction they are dicey about the oil price forecast 2016. It may raise to 65$ as per the predictions by next year.
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Old 11-09-2015, 09:46 AM   #24
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Sunction, Saudi Arabia is not going to be in a position for very much longer to support those low prices. They have an enormous social network with very generous benefits. There is also a huge extended royal family, all of them sucking cash from the same straw. That is rapidly depleting their cash reserves, so much so that they have already expressed concerns about it. We'll se how long they let this go on, but I suspect it isn't to be for long.
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Old 11-10-2015, 01:12 PM   #25
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They can always print to keep the show on the road

I mean .......

why is it so important that any nation balances its budget in todays crazy world ?

It makes no sense to me that some can print and others seem not to have this option.

I would stop the pumps and start the printers till the whole thing falls over, then be in a position to still have some oil to sell, rather than give it away at less than cost for paper that is becoming increasingly worthless.

Easy enough to make your oilco's 'too big to fail' and push free money at them.

Hey, vote for me, I can fix everything
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Old 01-21-2016, 09:01 AM   #26
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It would seem like the low oil prices are starting to exert stronger pressure on the Russian economy now:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...ling-any-price
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Old 01-28-2016, 06:13 AM   #27
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Oil rise

Oil will rise to $70 in the end of 2016.
These are the words of perma oil magnate T. Boone. What do you think?
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Old 01-28-2016, 08:47 AM   #28
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I'd be very surprised if he is correct.
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Old 01-28-2016, 03:18 PM   #29
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I been into more charge cards. Oil charge cards were hard to get- I got a few pretty easy tho.

Sunoco even lets you take cash out of ATM- i assume it is a high fee. It is nice it is there tho.
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Old 02-04-2016, 08:32 AM   #30
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One of the great unknowns facing the US shale industry, and threatening the recurring rumors of its imminent demise, is how it is possible that despite the collapsing number of oil wells, and despite the plunge in crude prices which supposedly are well below all-in shale production costs, does production not only refuse to decline, but in fact has been largely increasing in the past 6 months, with just a modest decline in recent weeks.
...
According to a report by the Bloomberg Intelligence analysts William Foiles and Andrew Cosgrove, ... a break-even model for the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford shows that oil production across five plays in Texas and New Mexico may remain profitable even when WTI prices fall below $30 a barrel, according to a 55-variable Bloomberg Intelligence model for horizontal oil wells.
...
More: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-far-lower-bre

I imagine SRSRocco will have a response to this at some point as it's a subject he's written about a lot.
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Old 02-04-2016, 12:34 PM   #31
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I reckon the fed have instructed lenders to roll over / extend any current loans and the Fed will 'see em right'

The price of oil is not the issue, its breaking Russia and / or Saudi with a few other trouble makers thrown in.

So a few US oilcos may be allowed to fail in order to show market forces are prevailing whilst quietly underwriting US oil.

The bloomberg 'intelligence' is just more bollox cos people are starting to wonder why US oil is still pumping product at a loss.
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Old 02-05-2016, 09:50 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by sunction View Post:
Oil will rise to $70 in the end of 2016.
These are the words of perma oil magnate T. Boone. What do you think?
Quote :
Just four days ago, on Monday afternoon, "legendary" oilman T Boone Pickens said that crude has hit bottom at $26 per barrel, and predicting that prices should double within 12 months.
...
Earlier today, literally days after he predicted oil would double from its $26 "bottom", Pickens told Bloomberg that he has cashed out.

But, but, what happened to oil prices will double from their bottom? And did he just liquidate all his holdings just $4 above this so-called bottom?

Well... yes.
...
More: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...l-oil-holdings

So, was he sincere in his prediction, or just trying to move the market?
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Old 02-05-2016, 04:42 PM   #33
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hah yeah

he cashed out at or close to a low and 'is looking for a good re entry point' !

So he thinks the low is not yet in .........

Cushing storage apparently brim full and everyone still pumping flat out.
They really need a ME / Russia war so some of the flows can be disrupted )-:
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Old 02-05-2016, 10:20 PM   #34
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...

But, at some point, oil companies (anything oil really) will become a BUY. Oil will not be going away, and it is likely that at the right time, investments in the oil sector will do far better than "average investments".

When? Hmm, beats me. Perhaps 6 months, more likely after the bankruptcies... The oil sector would be very risky now, less so after the banks foreclose on some oil companies / properties. Similarly, property in Texas will likely do better than other real estate once oil comes back. And oil will come back! At higher prices than ever most likely (and THAT is the good case scenario!).

Almost all hyperinflations happen AFTER a deflation...
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Old 02-06-2016, 05:30 AM   #35
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I will be buying soon cos my 4000 litres of digger fuel is all used up (-:
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Old 02-07-2016, 01:21 AM   #36
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rbl

Enjoy your next purchases, while prices are low!
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Old 02-08-2016, 08:24 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
...
But, at some point, oil companies (anything oil really) will become a BUY. ...

Almost all hyperinflations happen AFTER a deflation...
This is what concerns me. I can't shake the feeling that when oil makes it's move to the upside, it's going to be disorderly (and gold/silver are going to follow). Hope I'm wrong.
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Old 02-08-2016, 10:35 AM   #38
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As they loose control of all the controlled markets ?

Fundamentals should quickly put the price back down as world trade shudders to a halt and demand for oil is hugely reduced.

Its actually hard to wrap your head around how it might unravel as there are so many variables ........
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Old 10-24-2018, 08:22 AM   #39
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* bump *

So currently in world affairs, Venezuela is swirling the toilet drain, US sanctions are set to begin on Iran in a couple weeks and a there is a potential breakdown in US-Saudi relations brewing over the Khashoggi assassination - all of which could strain the global oil trade.

That might be a good thing for the US shale oil industry...

Quote :
... (based on the shale industry’s very own breakeven prices)...

... the shale industry may have to sell a quarter of its oil production (1.5 million barrels per day) just to service its debt by the end of 2019. ...
https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-shale...failure-ahead/
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Old 10-25-2018, 05:45 AM   #40
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I read all of Steve St Angelo's articles and while I cannot fault his research, I do struggle a bit with his projections and conclusions.

The USG cannot let the US oil industry fall apart and would seem to have already had a quiet word with their lenders.
If the big banks are TBTF then the US oil companies will also fall into this category.
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