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Old 02-11-2019, 08:20 AM   #21
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For the fourth time since October, the IMF revised its global growth forecast lower. ...
More: https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...UOa2pIzhEPitg/
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Old 04-15-2019, 08:00 AM   #22
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Public debt ratios are now “significantly higher” than before the global financial crisis across the globe, and governments need to get their fiscal houses in order ahead of the next global downturn, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.
...
Advanced economies have levels of public-debt-to-GDP ratios that are close to unprecedented in peacetime, the IMF said. At the same time low interest rates are helping to make it easier to finance these high debt levels.

Asked about calls from some economists for the IMF to change its orthodox thinking about the need for low budget deficits in the environment of low interest rates, Gaspar said it was an open question how long these low interest rates can persist.
...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/im...urn-2019-04-10
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Old 05-29-2019, 09:27 AM   #23
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Looks like it's recession time here in the USA (according to the spread/inversion of the 3m and 10y yield curve):

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...orse-you-think

I wonder if this is in spite of the Fed intervening to prop up the long end of the curve as they were talking about a couple of weeks ago: https://www.pmbug.com/forum/f4/fed-h...887/#post34038
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Old 05-30-2019, 08:53 AM   #24
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Financial analyst Bo Polny ... thinks the next stock market selloff will start in June, but not everything sells off. Gold, silver and cryptos are going to spike higher. Polny explains, “The crash that comes in July is going to blow away the crash that comes in June. Then there is going to be a rush to safety. People will flee to safety. Remember, how much money have they printed? How much money do we not know that they printed? You know about that whole game of the $21 trillion in ‘missing money.’ With all of this money that has been printed, all of this money has to go somewhere. People will lose faith and confidence in this paper based system. The cycle . . . foretells the end of the paper based monetary system beginning in July. . . . Gold is going to jump in June initially. They are then going to try to hammer it back down. Once it jumps, they are going to start to lose control. When July hits, that’s when it will get pretty epic. By year end, Bitcoin, gold and silver will all, all be at new all-time highs.”
...
https://usawatchdog.com/greatest-cra...2019-bo-polny/

Bo is a technical analysis guy - studying trading charts/data and looking for patterns/trends. FWIW...
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Old 05-30-2019, 11:54 AM   #25
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Some have called him Phoney Baloney

Dont think he has ever made a worthwhile call .............

However things are getting a bit more volatile and $20 moves are now quite common for gold.
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Old 07-18-2019, 11:26 AM   #26
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So Ray Dalio is still sounding the warning bell:
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... I believe that monetizations of debt and currency depreciations will eventually pick up, which will reduce the value of money and real returns for creditors and test how far creditors will let central banks go in providing negative real returns before moving into other assets. ...

... I think that it is highly likely that sometime in the next few years, 1) central banks will run out of stimulant to boost the markets and the economy when the economy is weak, and 2) there will be an enormous amount of debt and non-debt liabilities (e.g., pension and healthcare) that will increasingly be coming due and won’t be able to be funded with assets. Said differently, I think that the paradigm that we are in will most likely end when a) real interest rate returns are pushed so low that investors holding the debt won’t want to hold it and will start to move to something they think is better and b) simultaneously, the large need for money to fund liabilities will contribute to the “big squeeze.” At that point, there won’t be enough money to meet the needs for it, so there will have to be some combination of large deficits that are monetized, currency depreciations, and large tax increases, and these circumstances will likely increase the conflicts between the capitalist haves and the socialist have-nots. Most likely, during this time, holders of debt will receive very low or negative nominal and real returns in currencies that are weakening, which will de facto be a wealth tax.
...
Most people now believe the best “risky investments” will continue to be equity and equity-like investments, such as leveraged private equity, leveraged real estate, and venture capital, and this is especially true when central banks are reflating. As a result, the world is leveraged long, holding assets that have low real and nominal expected returns that are also providing historically low returns relative to cash returns (because of the enormous amount of money that has been pumped into the hands of investors by central banks and because of other economic forces that are making companies flush with cash). I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant, such as gold. Additionally, for reasons I will explain in the near future, most investors are underweighted in such assets, meaning that if they just wanted to have a better balanced portfolio to reduce risk, they would have more of this sort of asset. For this reason, I believe that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio. I will soon send out an explanation of why I believe that gold is an effective portfolio diversifier.
long read: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/parad...fts-ray-dalio/
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Old 08-08-2019, 09:12 AM   #27
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Jim Rogers has beat this drum before, so it's not necessarily new, but it seems to me the tone of the message has changed. The horizon is getting closer.


It's a long video. Goldcode posted some quotes from the interview here:

Quote :
◆ “Get knowledgeable and get prepared as this crisis is going to be the worst in my life time”
...
◆ The next crisis is going to happen so fast that people may not have time to react

◆ The fiat currency experiment of the last 50 years is coming to a brutal end
...
https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-bl...sis-is-coming/
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Old 08-08-2019, 09:40 AM   #28
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I've never heard of Charles Nenner before, but he appears to be a legit analyst. He says...


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Old 08-09-2019, 09:54 AM   #29
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Mish says dominoes will fall:

Quote :
The Fed desperately needs to keep credit expanding or the economy will collapse. However, it's an unsustainable scheme.
...
More: https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...UWn1yDNTktL0g/
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Old 09-11-2019, 09:39 AM   #30
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Just saw this mentioned on Goldcore, but Ray Dalio posted another screed on LinkedIn about the coming paradigm shift and buying gold:
Quote :
The most important forces that now exist are:

1) The End of the Long-Term Debt Cycle (When Central Banks Are No Longer Effective)

+

2) The Large Wealth Gap and Political Polarity

+

3) A Rising World Power Challenging an Existing World Power

=

The Bond Blow-Off, Rising Gold Prices, and the Late 1930s Analogue

In other words now 1) central banks have limited ability to stimulate, 2) there is large wealth and political polarity and 3) there is a conflict between China as a rising power and the U.S. as an existing world power. If/when there is an economic downturn, that will produce serious problems in ways that are analogous to the ways that the confluence of those three influences produced serious problems in the late 1930s.
...
More: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/three...gue-ray-dalio/

h/t: https://news.goldcore.com/us/gold-bl...ion-ray-dalio/
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Old 10-17-2019, 09:34 AM   #31
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Sounds like the IMF is full of doom and gloomers...

Quote :
The International Monetary Fund has presented us with a Gothic horror show. The world's financial system is more stretched, unstable, and dangerous than it was on the eve of the Lehman crisis.

Quantitative easing, zero interest rates, and financial repression across the board have pushed investors -- and in the case of pension funds or life insurers, actually forced them -- into taking on ever more risk. We have created a monster.
...
More: http://gata.org/node/19528
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Old 10-18-2019, 05:13 AM   #32
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Yes I saw this.
It raises the question as to why preach doom now ?

I'm not aware of reason(s) for the IMF to preach doom beyone the ones weve discussed ad nauseaum, so what has changed ?

They gonna 'crash the system ' and bring down Trump ?
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Old 10-18-2019, 08:31 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
...
They gonna 'crash the system ' ... ?
I think a scarier scenario is that they (central banks) have lost control of the beast (global financial system/debt) and they (IMF) are just being honest. Rickards has said in the past that these Davos/G20/IMF people communicate the high level stuff out in the open.
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Old 11-07-2019, 08:44 AM   #34
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Ray Dalio not going quietly into the night...
Quote :
The World Has Gone Mad and the System Is Broken

I say these things because:
  • Money is free for those who are creditworthy because the investors who are giving it to them are willing to get back less than they give. More specifically investors lending to those who are creditworthy will accept very low or negative interest rates and won’t require having their principal paid back for the foreseeable future. They are doing this because they have an enormous amount of money to invest that has been, and continues to be, pushed on them by central banks that are buying financial assets in their futile attempts to push economic activity and inflation up. The reason that this money that is being pushed on investors isn’t pushing growth and inflation much higher is that the investors who are getting it want to invest it rather than spend it. This dynamic is creating a “pushing on a string” dynamic that has happened many times before in history (though not in our lifetimes) ...
  • At the same time, large government deficits exist and will almost certainly increase substantially, which will require huge amounts of more debt to be sold by governments—amounts that cannot naturally be absorbed without driving up interest rates at a time when an interest rate rise would be devastating for markets and economies because the world is so leveraged long. Where will the money come from to buy these bonds and fund these deficits? It will almost certainly come from central banks, which will buy the debt that is produced with freshly printed money. This whole dynamic in which sound finance is being thrown out the window will continue and probably accelerate, especially in the reserve currency countries and their currencies—i.e., in the US, Europe, and Japan, and in the dollar, euro, and yen.
  • At the same time, pension and healthcare liability payments will increasingly be coming due while many of those who are obligated to pay them don’t have enough money to meet their obligations. ...
  • At the same time as money is essentially free for those who have money and creditworthiness, it is essentially unavailable to those who don’t have money and creditworthiness, which contributes to the rising wealth, opportunity, and political gaps. ...
This set of circumstances is unsustainable and certainly can no longer be pushed as it has been pushed since 2008. That is why I believe that the world is approaching a big paradigm shift.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/world...e_article_view
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Old 11-12-2019, 08:27 AM   #35
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Looks like the audience is listening:
Quote :
Wealthy people around the globe are hunkering down for a potentially turbulent 2020, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.

A majority of rich investors expect a significant drop in markets before the end of next year, and 25% of their average assets are currently in cash, according to a survey of more than 3,400 global respondents. ...

Nearly four-fifths of respondents say volatility is likely to increase, and 55% think there will be a significant market sell-off before the end of 2020, according to the report which was conducted between August and October and polled those with at least $1 million in investable assets. Sixty percent are considering increasing their cash levels further, ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...bs-wealth-says
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Old 12-02-2019, 09:39 AM   #36
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Quote :
... Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones - joined Yahoo Finance for the 2nd annual Greenwich Investment Forum earlier this month. ... PTJ and Dalio focused their "Fireside Chat" on the flaws of Fed policy, the dangers of America's ballooning budget deficit, and the steps that must be take to "stop us from killing each other" in a violent revolution, as Dalio warned.
...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/da...tem-isnt-fixed

Mr. Dalio is still sounding warning bells.
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Old 12-20-2019, 11:52 AM   #37
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The World Bank has warned the largest and fastest rise in global debt in half a century could lead to another financial crisis as the world economy slows.

The 'Global Waves of Debt' report looked at the four major episodes of debt increases that have occurred in more than 100 countries since 1970 — the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009.

The bank said during the fourth wave, from 2010 to 2018, the debt to GDP ratio of developing countries has risen by more than half to 168 per cent.

That was a faster increase on an annual basis than during the Latin American debt crisis.

Problematically, the rise in debt has been across both private companies and governments across the world, amplifying the risks if there is another global financial crisis.
...
More: https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-...rning/11819542
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