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Old 12-27-2012, 11:34 AM   #1
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So we have now almost eclipsed the 16.5 month time frame for this correction in gold. Since the bull market began, corrections have lasted 16.5-18 months before a meaningful resumption of the secular trend. No correction is exactly the same but the duration seems to rhyme pretty well. Oddly enough, if this correction lasts another 1.5 months, it will be perfectly inline with Martin Armstrong's 4.3 year number from the 08 lows. The symmetry is a bit spooky.

Anyways... Back on topic. During periods like this you always have a series of emotions play out. IMO.. We are at the point where gold and silver bulls are choosing to be greedy. We have been given a gift of sub $30 silver this winter and I see very little willingness from people within the community to call a low. All I keep hearing is "lower the better so I can load up". I've read that multiple times and IMO, it's actually very bearish sentiment.

If you are a buyer and believe gold/silver to be headed higher, why are you waiting? We had a 7.5% drop in silver over 3 days. What makes you think you'll get a better price? COT numbers? If you were waiting on COT numbers to get to "your" level, you'd probably have missed this entire move.

No one has a crystal ball but it's clear to me that everyone and their dog is trying to "hedge" themselves emotionally by calling for a lower price as their entry. Unfortunately, the lower it goes, suddenly, they see something else that makes them think we head even lower. I have seen this closet bear mentality near lows, not highs. Consensus is we are heading lower and the consensus is usually wrong.

The duration of this correction has been reached and so has magnitude. We COULD head lower but if you are bullish on the metals, what price do you really think we are headed to? And if it's much higher, why would you risk missing the move?
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Old 12-27-2012, 12:26 PM   #2
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My sentiment is that it's always a good time to buy (physical) if you have funds that you aren't going to need for the next 5-10 years.
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Old 12-27-2012, 12:58 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
My sentiment is that it's always a good time to buy (physical) if you have funds that you aren't going to need for the next 5-10 years.
I'm in agreement with you and that's why I scale in purchases and only market time about 25% of my purchases (only big down days). I just wanted to voice my observation that on this last smackdown, I didn't hear of many people stacking. Instead, I read post after post about waiting for additional information and/or wanting further declines to add.

I might be wrong and we could continue to fall into the 1500s.. I just don't think that those price objectives are necessary. Sentiment is way bearish after being way bullish back in September/October. NDR has an 85 bullish reading in Sept/Oct and now has a 13% bullish reading. By comparison, At the lows we had a reading of 5% bullish which was insane.

IMO.. The biggest curve ball the bull market could throw at us at this point is for it to rise, not drop.
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Old 12-27-2012, 03:08 PM   #4
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@ "...bugs"!

Yes, anytime you have extra money is a good time to buy PMs (extra gold in my case). On occasion, I "try a little harder" to have money to buy another oz or two when there are big price drops, but usually my timing is not good -- prices usually go DOWN after I buy).

The offer is still open! Send me $50, and I'll tell you in advance when I will buy physical gold!

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