Precious Metals Forum

Go Back   Precious Metals Forum > Precious Metals and Economic News > Fiat Ponzi

Like Tree3Likes
  • 3 Post By DSAbug

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
Old 12-27-2012, 09:34 AM   #1
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Sentiment...

So we have now almost eclipsed the 16.5 month time frame for this correction in gold. Since the bull market began, corrections have lasted 16.5-18 months before a meaningful resumption of the secular trend. No correction is exactly the same but the duration seems to rhyme pretty well. Oddly enough, if this correction lasts another 1.5 months, it will be perfectly inline with Martin Armstrong's 4.3 year number from the 08 lows. The symmetry is a bit spooky.

Anyways... Back on topic. During periods like this you always have a series of emotions play out. IMO.. We are at the point where gold and silver bulls are choosing to be greedy. We have been given a gift of sub $30 silver this winter and I see very little willingness from people within the community to call a low. All I keep hearing is "lower the better so I can load up". I've read that multiple times and IMO, it's actually very bearish sentiment.

If you are a buyer and believe gold/silver to be headed higher, why are you waiting? We had a 7.5% drop in silver over 3 days. What makes you think you'll get a better price? COT numbers? If you were waiting on COT numbers to get to "your" level, you'd probably have missed this entire move.

No one has a crystal ball but it's clear to me that everyone and their dog is trying to "hedge" themselves emotionally by calling for a lower price as their entry. Unfortunately, the lower it goes, suddenly, they see something else that makes them think we head even lower. I have seen this closet bear mentality near lows, not highs. Consensus is we are heading lower and the consensus is usually wrong.

The duration of this correction has been reached and so has magnitude. We COULD head lower but if you are bullish on the metals, what price do you really think we are headed to? And if it's much higher, why would you risk missing the move?
PMBug, ancona and BigJim like this.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2012, 10:26 AM   #2
Golden Cockroach
 
PMBug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: In Scrooge McDuck's vault
Posts: 7,027
Liked: 2449 times
My sentiment is that it's always a good time to buy (physical) if you have funds that you aren't going to need for the next 5-10 years.
__________________
The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. - Lao Tzu

Important stuff: PMBug 101 * Forum Guidelines * Support PMBug
PMBug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2012, 10:58 AM   #3
Moderator
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,059
Liked: 459 times
Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
My sentiment is that it's always a good time to buy (physical) if you have funds that you aren't going to need for the next 5-10 years.
I'm in agreement with you and that's why I scale in purchases and only market time about 25% of my purchases (only big down days). I just wanted to voice my observation that on this last smackdown, I didn't hear of many people stacking. Instead, I read post after post about waiting for additional information and/or wanting further declines to add.

I might be wrong and we could continue to fall into the 1500s.. I just don't think that those price objectives are necessary. Sentiment is way bearish after being way bullish back in September/October. NDR has an 85 bullish reading in Sept/Oct and now has a 13% bullish reading. By comparison, At the lows we had a reading of 5% bullish which was insane.

IMO.. The biggest curve ball the bull market could throw at us at this point is for it to rise, not drop.
DSAbug is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2012, 01:08 PM   #4
PM Bug Supporter
 
DoChenRollingBearing's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: SE USA
Posts: 1,275
Liked: 691 times
@ "...bugs"!

Yes, anytime you have extra money is a good time to buy PMs (extra gold in my case). On occasion, I "try a little harder" to have money to buy another oz or two when there are big price drops, but usually my timing is not good -- prices usually go DOWN after I buy).

The offer is still open! Send me $50, and I'll tell you in advance when I will buy physical gold!



DoChenRollingBearing is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Political sentiment in the Eurozone - backlash against austerity and the Germans? PMBug STS 1 04-26-2012 07:24 AM
Sentiment... DSAbug Gold Bug 3 04-24-2012 11:43 AM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:48 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® from Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 PL2 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.
Content of PMBug.com copyright © 2011 - 2019 Measuring Up. All Rights Reserved.