So we have now almost eclipsed the 16.5 month time frame for this correction in gold. Since the bull market began, corrections have lasted 16.5-18 months before a meaningful resumption of the secular trend. No correction is exactly the same but the duration seems to rhyme pretty well. Oddly enough, if this correction lasts another 1.5 months, it will be perfectly inline with Martin Armstrong's 4.3 year number from the 08 lows. The symmetry is a bit spooky.
Anyways... Back on topic. During periods like this you always have a series of emotions play out. IMO.. We are at the point where gold and silver bulls are choosing to be greedy. We have been given a gift of sub $30 silver this winter and I see very little willingness from people within the community to call a low. All I keep hearing is "lower the better so I can load up". I've read that multiple times and IMO, it's actually very bearish sentiment.
If you are a buyer and believe gold/silver to be headed higher, why are you waiting? We had a 7.5% drop in silver over 3 days. What makes you think you'll get a better price? COT numbers? If you were waiting on COT numbers to get to "your" level, you'd probably have missed this entire move.
No one has a crystal ball but it's clear to me that everyone and their dog is trying to "hedge" themselves emotionally by calling for a lower price as their entry. Unfortunately, the lower it goes, suddenly, they see something else that makes them think we head even lower. I have seen this closet bear mentality near lows, not highs. Consensus is we are heading lower and the consensus is usually wrong.
The duration of this correction has been reached and so has magnitude. We COULD head lower but if you are bullish on the metals, what price do you really think we are headed to? And if it's much higher, why would you risk missing the move?
Anyways... Back on topic. During periods like this you always have a series of emotions play out. IMO.. We are at the point where gold and silver bulls are choosing to be greedy. We have been given a gift of sub $30 silver this winter and I see very little willingness from people within the community to call a low. All I keep hearing is "lower the better so I can load up". I've read that multiple times and IMO, it's actually very bearish sentiment.
If you are a buyer and believe gold/silver to be headed higher, why are you waiting? We had a 7.5% drop in silver over 3 days. What makes you think you'll get a better price? COT numbers? If you were waiting on COT numbers to get to "your" level, you'd probably have missed this entire move.
No one has a crystal ball but it's clear to me that everyone and their dog is trying to "hedge" themselves emotionally by calling for a lower price as their entry. Unfortunately, the lower it goes, suddenly, they see something else that makes them think we head even lower. I have seen this closet bear mentality near lows, not highs. Consensus is we are heading lower and the consensus is usually wrong.
The duration of this correction has been reached and so has magnitude. We COULD head lower but if you are bullish on the metals, what price do you really think we are headed to? And if it's much higher, why would you risk missing the move?
