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Old 08-25-2015, 04:18 PM   #21
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They were saying that the down turn happened on a "rumor" that there was some internal troubles in China that included troop movements. If China has some sort of military putsch whether from within its own govt might not be as huge a deal as if it was a popular uprising, it could still be very interesting to see what happens if these rumors have any validity to them.
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:36 PM   #22
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Suspect its just a msm 'blame China' meme

After all it can't be the Fed or the Mr Market .....
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Old 08-27-2015, 04:46 AM   #23
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As a long time observer and player in the markets, a 500 pt change in the DOW is no big deal as that amounts to a move of less than 5%. 5% moves up or down are a relatively common occurrence. Even 10% moves happen occasionally. The only time I get concerned is when the market moves 20% or more in a relatively short time period.

Look at historical charts. Prices of any commodity rarely crash more than 40% in a 2 month window and when they do they usually rocket back up the next month from halfway to 2/3s of the way back up before going sideways for months and/or years. Note that I said, "usually." Also note that markets can and do trend up or down for years without the volatility associated with a "crash."

So, as I write this the Dow is something like 11% off of its all time high. Wow, big deal. Will it keep falling? No way to know, but what I do know is that markets seldom crash down for more than 56 days without bottoming out, recovering a lot, then trending sideways. That means that we could see another month of severe drops and roaring rises on the bounces before calming down around the current levels until next year. My guess today is that in the next 30 days the DOW may find a low around 14000 before climbing back to today's numbers. Based on history, the maximum low could be around 11000 near the end of September, but even though possible I don't think it will get there.

My long term view? Mostly sideways to up for the next 3 years. New highs in 18 and early 19, then a crash starting about Labor Day 2019 and culminating with a low on 25 October 2019 about 40% below the Labor Day high. From there it is anyone's GUESS.

Now that I have put this in writing, watch the gods of the Dow rise up and make me look like a fool.
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:08 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by mmerlinn View Post:
As a long time observer and player in the markets, a 500 pt change in the DOW is no big deal as that amounts to a move of less than 5%. 5% moves up or down are a relatively common occurrence. Even 10% moves happen occasionally.
You better look closer. The biggest moves the dow has ever seen is a 22% change and that only happened once, all of the other biggest % moves are 15% or less and there have only been a few of those in over a century of trading. I would call a 10% move a rarity, even an oddity. Even 5% is a big move in something like the DOW. In '89 & 97 moves down of 7% were called "mini-crashes". So a move of 5% is a fairly big swing. Not to mention you pile up a few consecutive days of 2-5% moves in one direction or the other, it becomes VERY huge.
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:56 AM   #25
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Big Daddy won't let this thing blow up until he want's it to.
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Old 08-27-2015, 07:51 PM   #26
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No matter how you slice it, this volatility is highly volatile.
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Old 08-28-2015, 07:56 AM   #27
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Pretty crazy stuff brothers and sisters, pretty crazy. China is dumping our treasuries like mad to prop up their yuan and their markets right now, which does not bode well for the dollar. Someone has to absorb those things, and I suspect Belgium doesn't quite have the liquidity for it, so who, what and where comes to mind. Treasury dumping aside, we also have massive inventory build, coupled with crashing consumer confidence and cratering auto sales. The big three are packing lots again, this time at record levels, so expect anyone that can fog a mirror and show a check stub to soon be driving a new Lexus. This is a set-up for the next explosion in the world of high finance. They'll never learn, because Uncle Sugar didn't let them learn the last time, and they presume he'll just bail them out again.
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Old 08-28-2015, 08:05 AM   #28
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They could lend Greece a $ trill with an agreement that they soak up the dumped treasuries.

Kinda like creating a 'bad bank' to hold all the debt ......

Win - win I reckon (-:
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Old 08-28-2015, 04:17 PM   #29
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So we had an end of session 18 or 20 minute rally from down about 122 to down 11 on zero new information of any kind. Just amazing, absolutely stunning. They don't even try to hide this stuff any more, it's just a farce the way it is out in the open. Sort of like the mainstream media shilling for the socialist lefties now. They don't bother to shellac it over at all, it's right out in the open for everyone to see and they don't even care.
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Old 08-29-2015, 12:39 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
So we had an end of session 18 or 20 minute rally from down about 122 to down 11 on zero new information of any kind. Just amazing, absolutely stunning. They don't even try to hide this stuff any more, it's just a farce the way it is out in the open. Sort of like the mainstream media shilling for the socialist lefties now. They don't bother to shellac it over at all, it's right out in the open for everyone to see and they don't even care.
Sometimes it reminds me of when you watch some movie with vampires, or zombies, or werewolves in it, and everyone is going, hey that guy's drinking blood, and he never goes out during the day, and he can fly, wonder what it could be? You just wanna scream "HE"S A FUCKING VAMPIRE! WHAT CAVE HAVE YOU BEEN LIVING IN TO NOT KNOW WHAT THAT IS?!" It's the same way with a lot of this stuff, it's like I've seen this movie before, what's the running time on this one?
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Old 09-01-2015, 09:01 AM   #31
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Futures are looking like a bloodbath this morning. We'll have to see how badly the boys in da hood want to keep the party going. It should be a wild ride either way, what with another black swan explosion in China yesterday taking out a huge quantity of who knows what, killing who knows how many. There is rampant speculation that these explosions are cover-ups for materials/commodities that were used as collateral that was re-re-re hypothecated for bank loans in fraudulent schemes and some very frightened businessmen needed to cover their tracks and that was the only way to do it. I don't know either way, but this is getting more and more interesting by the day.
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:01 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by ancona View Post:
... but this is getting more and more interesting by the day.
"May you live in interesting times."
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:22 AM   #33
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As John Lennon said "Strange days indeed!" There is also another quote I can't quite remember about everybody thinks the times they live in are the "most" whatever you want to add, strange, fun, dangerous, difficult etc. I suspect since a lot of people don't pay much attention to history. I always liked the Billy Joel line, "The good old days weren't always good, and tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems." All that being said, clearly the sky is falling and we're doomed, that's why I'm still stacking.
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Old 10-07-2015, 09:47 AM   #34
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Well, Hillary's comment did tumbled the Biotech Index in Nasdaq, Who knows what will happen in the upcoming Republican Debate which includes Trump, Carly etc. which is even titled "Economy"
Here's Everything you need to know about the upcoming October 28 CNBC Presidential Debate Schedule.
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