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Old 12-29-2013, 06:55 PM   #1
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Thinking About 2014

...

Before I get to my piece, I note that our own DCFusor just took a public poke at "One World Mafia" at Zero Hedge for spreading around bad info...

This also serves as a warning not to present yourself as smart unless you really are...

For your viewing pleasure: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...omment-4283829

***

I am OUT of the prediction business, but that does not mean I cannot think about stuff and wonder.

Gold (& junk silver)
Bitcoin
Energy
Politics (yuck)
"White Swans" (What if we are wrong? What if everything turns out OK?)

"Thinking About 2014"

http://tinyurl.com/kfeqlf5
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Old 12-30-2013, 08:46 AM   #2
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Enjoyed the read DCRB, but the bullish case for the economy and real estate rests on a foundation of continued ZIRP. It remains to be seen if the Fed can maintain the lid on interest rates while trying to untie the Gordian Knot (of tapering).
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Old 01-03-2014, 11:49 AM   #3
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BTW, this seems like an appropriate thread to wish great fortune in 2014 to all the bugs out there. Cheers.
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Old 01-04-2014, 06:50 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by DoChenRollingBearing View Post:
...


I am OUT of the prediction business ..., but that does not mean I cannot think about stuff and wonder.

Gold (& junk silver)
Bitcoin
Energy
Politics (yuck)
"White Swans" (What if we are wrong? What if everything turns out OK?)

"Thinking About 2014" http://tinyurl.com/kfeqlf5
Bearing,
unless I misread your blog, you are sounding positive on the stockmarket continuing to climb .......... this smacks of a prediction.

And by making this prediction you become a contra indicator, cos proper goldbugs are the very last to capitulate (-;
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Old 01-06-2014, 03:56 PM   #5
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...

rblong2us!

No re thinking that the market will go up, I am indeed OUT of the prediction business...

I wrote my piece the way I did because, uh, OCICBW... *




* of course I could be wrong (I am still a bearish bearing)
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Old 01-07-2014, 02:22 PM   #6
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Not predicting, but I'm out for now, have been for awhile, and missed a nice ride last year in large part.
Just have that feeling in my gut - like just before the 2001 crash, somthin ain't right.

But timing is everything, and TPTB have a huge stake and do a lot of work to keep the house of cards propped up as long as possible, so I'm not short either - just out.

History shows that humans muddle through somehow. Every piece of gold not in private hands may be rehypothecated a zillion times, and the derivatives network be a huge time-bomb that takes "the system as we know it" down when they stop pretending. It is, after all, well over 10x the world GDP worth of "bad paper" insofar as I can find out. But people find ways when it's time to eat, to shelter from the weather and so on, else we'd not be here talking about it - we're a pretty resilient species, so far. This is of course, the cannon of the perma-bull. I don't buy that as much as they do, since unlike theory, I have a limited lifespan left, and I can't wait an extra ten years for a recovery from some random reset. That there will be one, and with significant pain for some, I have no doubt.
I just have no idea of the timing thereof. It's already gone on longer than I thought possible.
And what if you're right about the time, and short - who is to say you're going to be able to collect your winnings from a brokerage that was long in their private account (and maybe with your funds too, like Corzine got caught doing)?

Of course, history also tells us that when everyone thinks that, that's right before the big one. The first seller who finds no buyers precipitates a crash in what looked good right up till that instant.

I think the indicator of "it's really pretty alright now" is going to be when some large bank actually has a good enough balance sheet to ask for the FASB ruling about "mark to unicorn" to be taken down, because it would make them look good and everyone else bad. What I hear is crickets, however, on that one, and it's the real deal.

"Oh, piebald, you had nothing to say, and yet you made it into words and said it anyway!"
CS Lewis, Perelandra
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