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Old 04-25-2012, 08:11 AM   #1
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UK falls back into recession

http://economywatch.msnbc.msn.com/_n...nce-1970s?lite

All that money printing to hold up the economy and all it did was delay the problems.

How long until the same thing happens in the U.S.A.?
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:02 AM   #2
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Well, that's what the speculation about QE3 being announced/signalled today is all about. Can't let the mortgage dam spill out and overwhelm all those "green shoots".
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:02 AM   #3
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The wierd thing is that from my limited perspective, things are on the up.

Definately more construction work going on and spec house building has picked up even as social housing schemes have been parked.

Rush hour traffic jams are as horrible as they were in the 'good times', which to me is a way of reading confidence and general activity.

Its been said that the reduction in mortgage payments due to ZIRP, has played its part and i suspect our gov has talked about cutting more than it has actually cut, as they try to convince the markets and Moodys that GBPLC is in good hands.

So, even though we know things are still badly out of kilter and that all gov data must be considered suspect, this report surprises me.
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:18 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
The wierd thing is that from my limited perspective, things are on the up.

Definately more construction work going on and spec house building has picked up even as social housing schemes have been parked.

Rush hour traffic jams are as horrible as they were in the 'good times', which to me is a way of reading confidence and general activity.

Its been said that the reduction in mortgage payments due to ZIRP, has played its part and i suspect our gov has talked about cutting more than it has actually cut, as they try to convince the markets and Moodys that GBPLC is in good hands.

So, even though we know things are still badly out of kilter and that all gov data must be considered suspect, this report surprises me.
I have seen similar indicators, but I feel like it is just the calm before the storm.
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:26 AM   #5
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The Bank Of England have anounced that they intend to basically print their way out of this mess by accumulating more and more "assets".
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Old 04-25-2012, 02:48 PM   #6
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they must have had a chat with the ratings agencies then, cos all the talk about cutting was based on a negative outlook that threatened our 'AAA' rating .......

And its this kind of thing that has me slowly being convinced that while we all project current trends into various 'walls', the rule writers change the shape of the predicted impact.

So while we have all been convinced things will unravel, as long as they can rewrite the rules, things muddle along.

Until something unexpected happens .......
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Old 04-25-2012, 08:55 PM   #7
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Ummmm...........

They never left recession.........just like us!
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Old 04-26-2012, 06:29 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by rblong2us View Post:
they must have had a chat with the ratings agencies then, cos all the talk about cutting was based on a negative outlook that threatened our 'AAA' rating .......

And its this kind of thing that has me slowly being convinced that while we all project current trends into various 'walls', the rule writers change the shape of the predicted impact. .......
Exhibit "A": ISDA

It's clear that the banks are not going to allow themselves to take any losses. How much funny money does the Fed / ECB / etc. need to Ctrl+P into existence to cover their debt balloon?
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Old 04-26-2012, 08:22 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by PMBug View Post:
Exhibit "A": ISDA

It's clear that the banks are not going to allow themselves to take any losses. How much funny money does the Fed / ECB / etc. need to Ctrl+P into existence to cover their debt balloon?
exactly !

sorry, a 95% writedown is not a credit event, cos we say so

and they deal with the MFinG unintended consequences with even more rule changes .........
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