2008 Was NOT The Crash, The REAL Crash Has Already Started

A big fan of peter schiff, here he is explaining the economy is NOT in a recovery

I liked the part about being "on the right side of the trend" if only that was so easy to do...

Anyone that knows any history, particularly 1930s history, knows that 2008 was only the precursor to the real crash just like 1929 was the precursor to the real crash in the mid-30s.

Basically, we are repeating the 30s all over again, just as the 30s repeated prior crashes going back thousands of years. Bottom line is that history keeps repeating itself time and time again and this is just another repeat of a long line of crashes.

So, if you want to know what will happen in the future, just look at the past and extrapolate it forward. 1929 was the beginning of bringing the world economy to its knees. 2008 is the same thing.

Ten years later, Europe was at war, and shortly thereafter the whole world was. Look at Europe today and compare it with Europe in the 30s. Same scenario, different generation, same end result.

Major economic crises ALWAYS devolve into major wars. This economic crisis will follow the same path. Timing may not be exact, but the results are the same because the inputs are the same.

mmerlinn said:

Anyone that knows any history, particularly 1930s history, knows that 2008 was only the precursor to the real crash just like 1929 was the precursor to the real crash in the mid-30s.

Ten years later, Europe was at war, and shortly thereafter the whole world was. Look at Europe today and compare it with Europe in the 30s. Same scenario, different generation, same end result.

Major economic crises ALWAYS devolve into major wars. This economic crisis will follow the same path. Timing may not be exact, but the results are the same because the inputs are the same.

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It's a good hypothesis and it has the weight of history behind it, but now we have the internet and cell phones and people can communicate in ways that were never possible before. I think it makes it much harder for governments to propagandize a population to support a war. That's not to say there aren't armed conflicts popping up all the time, but another World War in Europe would be suicidal and frankly unimaginable. France, Britain, Russia, Pakistan, Israel, India, South Africa, South Korea, Iran, China, all have nukes, and it would take Germany, Japan, South Korea, and a few others about a month to have them too. I can't believe a world war has much probability of happening again. More likely a terrorist is going to take out part of a major city someday and that will be painful enough.

As to economic distress and having another leg down I sure hope it doesn't happen, but I have to admit it probably will, but we've got safety nets now that didn't exist in the 1930's and as long as nobody yells "THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES" people are going to keep taking money from the fed and praying the party will continue, because everyone likes their flat screen TV's, X-Boxes and Happy Meals.

So I hope you are wrong but I have to concede it is worrisome to see history trying to repeat itself, particularly in regards to economic cycles, which is why many buy PM's and have a back-up plan, just in case.

Aubuy said:

It's a good hypothesis and it has the weight of history behind it, but now we have the internet and cell phones and people can communicate in ways that were never possible before. I think it makes it much harder for governments to propagandize a population to support a war. ...

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"WMDs" and Iraq say hello.

Iran and Syria ask, are you serious?

The unwashed masses are easily led by the nose.

Aubuy said:

but we've got safety nets now that didn't exist in the 1930's and as long as nobody yells "THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES" (...)

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I'd interrupt right there - someday, somebody (I suppose, Mr. Market) WILL yell. Secondly what safety nets are you exactly referring to? IT looks to me, that the assumption that "nobody will yell", is the one and only safety net that we have in place? Or printing amounts of money, that we will soon run out of names for (and will need to start using scientific notation, I suppose, like "this year, our glorious leaders have managed to increase our yearly deficit to 1.3*10^9 of dollars" - which would have that one distinct benefit, that NOBODY of the public would understand a fucking thing of that, so nobody would be asking inconvenient questions )? It all has consequences, although delayed - but there are.

Which part of the trend have you overlooked - more & more people being pushed out of financial self-dependency, into government dependency, shadow economy, outright illegalities - even in the most developed, industrialized countries. IN those unlucky ones, that are still developing - they are just starving.

6 billions of hungry people (some of them w/ nukes) today is more dangerous, than 1.5 billion with conventional weapons in 1939. Add on top of that, that in current globalized world if one country's economy sneezes, the whole world's economy get's cold. That never been before to such a great degree (if at all), and this is is humongous risk.

Furthermore, while I definitely hope that the next leg of crisis will not hit, preferably not quick, and preferably (for me), the situation would just keep slowly deteriorating, allowing me to build up my preps, but another leg is a GIVEN, mathematical certainty. They are running out of places to pile new debts on, in our global Ponzi scheme debt-based monetary system. The problem with all financial pyramids is, when they cannot expand anymore, they DO collapse. There's algebraic certainty to that.

At this point in time somebody is still making the food and trading it to people who are still making something else, and that has worked for thousands of years. So we are considering scenarios that would be so disruptive to this system that millions, or billions are going to starve which would lead to riots and war.

World War 3 is always a possibility, I just think it is unlikely to be caused by money printing, currency manipulation, and excessive debt. Those are the things that make some people really rich and other people really poor, but I don't think in a thermonuclear armed world that it makes sense to make the food radioactive. I hope the majority of the world thinks the same way.

So yes, regional conflicts and instability are likely to continue, and lots of people are going to get hurt and killed, but in the US there is enough domestic energy and food production to keep things stable, at least here. We might end up fondly remembering the days when we had a constitution, but there is a safety net, and people are going to get fed, given a free TV so they can watch motivational speeches read by teleprompter from our fearless leader, and life will go on. Life has to go on otherwise we are chimpanzees.

So I am still in the glass is half full camp (at least today) and really hoping the Fed can thread the needle and keep the masses from noticing that Bernanke has grown a bit of a pot belly over the past 4 years from all the bon bonds he's eating (he really should go on a diet but probably not today). :shrug: and if gold get's under $1300 I'm buying. :rimshot:

Aubuy said:

At this point in time somebody is still making the food and trading it to people who are still making something else, and that has worked for thousands of years. So we are considering scenarios that would be so disruptive to this system that millions, or billions are going to starve which would lead to riots and war.

World War 3 is always a possibility, I just think it is unlikely to be caused by money printing, currency manipulation, and excessive debt. Those are the things that make some people really rich and other people really poor, but I don't think in a thermonuclear armed world that it makes sense to make the food radioactive. I hope the majority of the world thinks the same way.

So yes, regional conflicts and instability are likely to continue, and lots of people are going to get hurt and killed, but in the US there is enough domestic energy and food production to keep things stable, at least here. We might end up fondly remembering the days when we had a constitution, but there is a safety net, and people are going to get fed, given a free TV so they can watch motivational speeches read by teleprompter from our fearless leader, and life will go on. Life has to go on otherwise we are chimpanzees.

So I am still in the glass is half full camp (at least today) and really hoping the Fed can thread the needle and keep the masses from noticing that Bernanke has grown a bit of a pot belly over the past 4 years from all the bon bonds he's eating (he really should go on a diet but probably not today). :shrug: and if gold get's under $1300 I'm buying. :rimshot:

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I'm wondering, we keep talking about the "human element" but no one is taking into account peak oil, overshoot, die-off, climatic change, geological crisis, etc. One big rock could solve B's problems at the Fed. And A I agree with you, I'm in the glass half full (today). I have a wonderful family (today) and everyone is "happy" (today).

Aubuy said:

At this point in time somebody is still making the food and trading it to people who are still making something else, and that has worked for thousands of years. So we are considering scenarios that would be so disruptive to this system that millions, or billions are going to starve which would lead to riots and war.

World War 3 is always a possibility, I just think it is unlikely to be caused by money printing, currency manipulation, and excessive debt. Those are the things that make some people really rich and other people really poor, but I don't think in a thermonuclear armed world that it makes sense to make the food radioactive. I hope the majority of the world thinks the same way.

So yes, regional conflicts and instability are likely to continue, and lots of people are going to get hurt and killed, but in the US there is enough domestic energy and food production to keep things stable, at least here. We might end up fondly remembering the days when we had a constitution, but there is a safety net, and people are going to get fed, given a free TV so they can watch motivational speeches read by teleprompter from our fearless leader, and life will go on. Life has to go on otherwise we are chimpanzees.

So I am still in the glass is half full camp (at least today) and really hoping the Fed can thread the needle and keep the masses from noticing that Bernanke has grown a bit of a pot belly over the past 4 years from all the bon bonds he's eating (he really should go on a diet but probably not today). :shrug: and if gold get's under $1300 I'm buying. :rimshot:

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oh you meant social safety net... well they come from surplus in the productive economy, and not from money printing. I f they were, why we still have poverty & hunger on this planet?

as for the energy, I really don't know what to make of your argument? USA is not energy independent, for decades now, it never will be energy independent again (at least until some serious paradigm(s) have shifted) - I hope you are not buying into the shale oil/gas pyramid? Theres no snowflake chance in hell that US of A will produce all it's required oil. Without that cheap oil, things are going south FAST (think food production, 100% dependant on it). The thing is, US of A is hopelessly dependent on a commodity being drilled half a world away, and while you can get it, things will be more or less OK, but ll that's needed ispetrodollar loosing it's status, (as it IS happening), and you guys are in asmuch :doodoo: as anybody else ( if not worse)

bushi said:

oh you meant social safety net... well they come from surplus in the productive economy, and not from money printing. I f they were, why we still have poverty & hunger on this planet?

as for the energy, I really don't know what to make of your argument? USA is not energy independent, for decades now, it never will be energy independent again (at least until some serious paradigm(s) have shifted) - I hope you are not buying into the shale oil/gas pyramid? Theres no snowflake chance in hell that US of A will produce all it's required oil. Without that cheap oil, things are going south FAST (think food production, 100% dependant on it). The thing is, US of A is hopelessly dependent on a commodity being drilled half a world away, and while you can get it, things will be more or less OK, but ll that's needed ispetrodollar loosing it's status, (as it IS happening), and you guys are in asmuch :doodoo: as anybody else ( if not worse)

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and all our fertilizer comes from the ME also. (product of NG). But I know those 27 million families getting food stamps will willingly work in the fields when the opportunity arises...
having lived in the slum in Manila with neither running water or electricity it occurs to me that most of my neighbors will be dead in a month when the lights go out. The heat alone will kill most folks.

The transition would not be easy if a crisis hits, but there is still plenty of energy here in the US available if we really needed it even if fracking is a fantasy. I have a hunch California has enough oil to last awhile (if we could drill it) and we could probably even scare up some uranium and build a nuke plant or two pretty quickly if we got motivated (or borrow the reactors from the navy), and imagine how much food we waste everyday that goes into garbage.

If we are going to use the historical model this country completely reinvented the labor market after the great depression when WW2 started and suddenly you had women going to work building tanks and airplanes. That was pretty radical at the time and I think some of our welfare neighbors might even be able to drag themselves off the couch and actually do something productive if the alternative was starvation. Yes, a few really obese ones might not make it, but they already live on borrowed time. I am not trying to be a Pollyanna here, I just think there is some slack in the system and there is more to the human spirit when it get's tested than you might be considering. There is also a fair capacity for compassion, so even though some people will be shooting each other for food, others will be organizing and building. Actually just look at some of the people on this website. They are organizing in their own way. So today my glass is still half full but I love the debate.

The problem I have is that some of the concepts you mention are inherently incompatible (like social safety net - like I said, it can ONLY exists, when there is big enough productive surplus in the economy, to be redistributed amongst the welfare recipients (and BTW, as is usually the case - state is the least efficient administrator of welfare - all kinds of charities are being run many times more effective, than bureaucratic monstrosities of government - so YES, as a society, we would be ALL better off WITHOUT THE GOVERNMENT WELFARE). Low-energy civilization (that we seemingly are heading towards), by definition means low- to no surpluses. Couple it with entitled mentality, electing completely inane, outright insane, incompetent sociopaths to the place of power, where they believe they were put to "rule" us all, and when the shortages hit, the mix is really explosive (it will NOT happen in the future, it started a good while ago, and it is happening as we speak).

But as for the general concept, I agree - I hope we can go through that all without destroying ourselves, and killing billions in war etc. Only, it would be our first, when we don't, in similar circumstances. Therefore I am not holding my breath.

I often find myself holding my breath. The argument at the start of this thread came from Peter Schiff, and what I am saying is that I don't think another market breakdown (kind of like today) will lead to the end of the world (or a world war). I think it will lead to more and more government intervention, rationing, temporary suspension of the constitution, like what Roosevelt did in the 30's and 40's, except I think we get through it again without a World War because we have nukes, cell phones, and the internet. Powerful new tools that didn't exist back then.

When I consider something darker (i.e. mass flu pandemic, or massive failure in food production) I think it might get dicier and my glass get's half empty. If a billion or two people die quickly and unexpectedly it would have a very dire effect on our world and frankly I really don't know how it would play out, but it seems there are enough "preppers" out there that there might have enough expertise to provide an educational foundation for survivors to get back into some kind of order after the dust clears.

I don't think the world is going to face something like that in my lifetime, but it's certainly possible when I look out a few more generations if we don't get population growth under control in a more natural way. So I try not to worry about it too much, but I concede that darker possibilities do exist.

Aubuy said:

I often find myself holding my breath. The argument at the start of this thread came from Peter Schiff, and what I am saying is that I don't think another market breakdown (kind of like today) will lead to the end of the world (or a world war). I think it will lead to more and more government intervention, rationing, temporary suspension of the constitution, like what Roosevelt did in the 30's and 40's, except I think we get through it again without a World War because we have nukes, cell phones, and the internet. Powerful new tools that didn't exist back then.

When I consider something darker (i.e. mass flu pandemic, or massive failure in food production) I think it might get dicier and my glass get's half empty. If a billion or two people die quickly and unexpectedly it would have a very dire effect on our world and frankly I really don't know how it would play out, but it seems there are enough "preppers" out there that there might have enough expertise to provide an educational foundation for survivors to get back into some kind of order after the dust clears.

I don't think the world is going to face something like that in my lifetime, but it's certainly possible when I look out a few more generations if we don't get population growth under control in a more natural way. So I try not to worry about it too much, but I concede that darker possibilities do exist.

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Aubey, you ever watch this guy?:

That is the first time I have seen it. Thanks for posting it. Here is one way Mother Nature might deal with excess population growth. Just found this in the headlines:

Mysterious new MERS virus spreads easily, deadlier than SARS

http://www.foxnews.com/health/2013/06/20/new-mers-virus-spreads-easily-deadlier-than-sars/

This video should be a requisite for every wannabe Keynesian economist, so before they get indoctrinated, they'll learn about outright stupidity of their "economic belief system", because something that flies right into the face of reality and quite simple numbers, I shiver to call it a "theory". The crux start in part 3.

I read about the new MERs virus the oth3er day. I find it disturbing that these things are mysteriously popping up so frequently. These simply have to be pre-engineered viruses that GovCo is testing out on the population.

bushi said:

I'd interrupt right there - someday, somebody (I suppose, Mr. Market) WILL yell. (...)

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hmmm.... are some people, even in CNBC, starting yelling now?