2025 Lunatic Fringe - Market and Trade Chat

Welcome to the Precious Metals Bug Forums

Welcome to the PMBug forums - a watering hole for folks interested in gold, silver, precious metals, sound money, investing, market and economic news, central bank monetary policies, politics and more.

Why not register an account and join the discussions? When you register an account and log in, you may enjoy additional benefits including no Google ads, market data/charts, access to trade/barter with the community and much more. Registering an account is free - you have nothing to lose!


 
10 Year is up huge, DXY is getting hammered. It's going to be difficult for Mr. Slammy to work in these conditions.
 

Empires Always Fall | Martin Armstrong | WWIII Interview Series​

In this probing interview for World War III: The Documentary, economic forecaster Martin Armstrong deciphers the global flashpoints in Ukraine and the Middle East through the lens of the recurring cycles that have shaped the rise and fall of empires throughout time. Armstrong connects current geopolitical crises to deep historical patterns, arguing that conflict is never isolated but always emerges from economic decline, political dysfunction, and the repeating follies of power. Drawing from both financial data and lessons of history, Armstrong challenges viewers to recognize World War III not as an aberration, but as a new chapter in the perennial drama of human civilization and its tragic mistakes.

This interview was shot as apart of the making of World War III: The Documentary chronicling the current the flashpoints of conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East through exclusive interviews with military, financial, and geopolitical experts, placing them within the cyclical rise and fall of empire that have marked all civilizations throughout history. The film challenges viewers to understand the saga of WWIII as yet another chapter in the unending drama of human power and folly.

 

 
a bit of history

Holy Sh*t…Two SUBPRIME Hedge Funds Just Blew Up (Exactly Like Bear Stearns)​

 
Expect a couple days of retracement in SIlver. The riggers clearly tried to paint the double top this morning. Probably heading towards a Tuesday low where I will try and buy any remaining cash/leverage I have available.
 
Hopefully a smokescreen today. I need new highs to get my mojo back.
 
If you want a really quick education give this a listen...

End of American Empire Nears – David Morgan​

In closing, Morgan says, “The run to gold goes like this. It starts as a very light walk, then a normal walk, a brisk walk, a light jog, a full jog, a fast jog, a light run, a run and then an all-out sprint to the finish line. Now, we are at a brisk walk to a light jog. What has taken place over the last few years is central banks are buying gold hand-over-fist in quantities never ever reached before. Why is that? Because the bankers know gold is the money of last resort. Gold is money and everything else is credit. They know what’s coming.”

 
QE is coming again. They need an event to blame it on. Will be here by March or June 2026.
 
PPI report is coming out at 8:30am which will affect today's trading. Gold was up overnight in China and now everybody is taking profit until the report comes out.
 
Last time I checked in China early am it was up $17, but now everybody selling everything for liquidity now in pre-market.
 
No way never again. Viking, I want some of your weed.
I always assumed you had the best stuff.

But I can see taking out loans and buying more medals. I do believe the rate metals will be going up in the next few years will be much greater than the interest rate.
 
Last edited:


JAPAN JUST KILLED THE GLOBAL MONEY PRINTER AND NOBODY NOTICED

The most dangerous number in finance right now is 1.71%.

That’s Japan’s 10-year bond yield. Highest since 2008. Here’s why your retirement just got obliterated:

For 30 years, Japan printed infinity money at 0% rates and exported it worldwide. $3.4 trillion flowed into US Treasuries, European debt, emerging markets. This invisible bid kept YOUR mortgage cheap, YOUR stocks inflated, YOUR government solvent.

November 10th, 2025: The bid disappeared.

Japan’s yield hit 1.71%. They’re pumping $110 billion stimulus into their economy while debt sits at 263% of GDP. The math just became impossible. At 1.7% rates, Japan pays $27 billion MORE in interest. Every. Single. Year.

Here’s the extinction event nobody sees coming:

Japanese pension funds are pulling $1.1 trillion OUT of US Treasuries right now because keeping money in America LOSES them money after hedging costs. The largest foreign buyer of American debt is becoming a seller.

When Japan stops buying, interest rates don’t stay flat. They explode. US 10-year yields will jump 40 basis points minimum from flow dynamics alone. Your 7% mortgage becomes 8%. Corporate debt refinancing costs spike 60%. Zombie companies holding $3 trillion in junk bonds start defaulting in waves.

The yen carry trade just reversed. $1.2 trillion in borrowed yen funding crypto, stocks, emerging markets must unwind. Every hedge fund, every momentum trade, every leveraged bet built on free Japanese money is getting margin called simultaneously.

This breaks in three places:

Stock valuations were built for 2% bond yields forever. At 3.5% yields, the S&P 500 fair value drops 35%. Emerging market currencies collapse without Japanese capital inflows. Europe’s debt crisis returns because Italy and Spain lose their silent buyer.

December 18th the Bank of Japan meets. 50% chance they hike again. If they do, sell everything not nailed down.

Your 401k doesn’t price this in yet. The Fed can’t stop this. No central bank can.

The world’s biggest piggy bank just cracked open and the money is flowing backwards.

Position accordingly or get destroyed.

Full article here - https://open.substack.com/pub/shana...6p7b5o&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=post-publish
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more…